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British house prices fell by 0.6 per cent last month, adding to growing evidence that five increases in interest rates since last year are beginning to take the pace out of housing inflation.
Halifax released its figures today just ahead of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision on interest rates at midday, when it is widely expected to keep the UK borrowing cost at 5.75 per cent.
Halifax said the monthly house price fall in 0.6 per cent was the first since December last year, when the rate declined by 0.9 per cent.
Overall, house prices in the third quarter of this year rose by 0.9 per cent, but this is compared with an increase of 3 per cent in the first three months of 2007 and 2.3 per cent in the second quarter.
Halifax's figures tally with third quarter data from Nationwide, revealing a 1.6 per cent rise in prices compared to a 1.9 per cent increase in the second quarter.
Martin Ellis, chief economist at Halifax, said: "September's price fall is consistent with the normal behaviour of the market during a slowdown. A mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a more subdued housing market."
Halifax said today that annual house price inflation in the year to September reached 10.4 per cent, compared with 11.4 per cent in the 12 months to August. Nationwide annual figures show a tightening from 10.2 per cent to 9.3 per cent.
On the yearly figures, Halifax said: "The annual rate should decline further over the next few months as the strong monthly house price gains during the autumn of 2006 drop out of the year-on-year comparisons."
The rate of mortgage approvals has also dropped, falling by 5 per cent to 109,000 in August, 9 per cent below the same month last year.
The average house now costs £198,500 with the South of England again experiencing the biggest increase in prices. In Greater London, house prices rose by 2.3 per cent and in the South East by 1.8 per cent.
"Nonetheless, the gains in Greater London and South East were lower than in the previous few quarters, suggesting that the market is slowing in these parts of the country, " said Halifax.
Nationwide said that the average house price in London broke through the £300,000 but that in nine out of the 13 regions in the UK it examined, inflation was slowing.
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Lots of ignorant people appear to be jumping on the BTL is eViL bandwagon.
BTL mortgages have higher criteria than many standard mortgages - a maximum loan to value of 85% and a requirement that the rent is at least 25% greater than the mortgage payments at the standard variable rate. The latter criteria ensures that only profitable propositions get loans.
Due to the number of people priced out of the market who are renting, there is unlikely to be a problem on the income side. Before a BTL goes into negative equity all the standard mortgages taken out at above 85% will also have had to have done so.
BTL accounts for 6% of the housing market.
John, London, UK
Graham et al...,
There is nothing wrong per se with BTL. The question of longer term security (and even more shared ownership schemes) is definitely worth exploring... I hope the Tories grasp this one...
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
"A lot of this antipathy towards the buy-to-let landlord is a relection of the usual British attitude towards success; jealousy. "
The issue is not jealousy but simply that many FTB simply can't afford to put a roof over their head. For heaven's sake, individuals are having to delay becoming independent, and starting families due to the current situation. Can you not see that the social implications of the boom have been extremely detrimental to the country?
Many have simply taken on huge amounts to get on the ladder, but in real terms they are worse of. The 'gains' are an illusion unless they are realised as they have to be put towards the next purchase. Cheap credit has fuelled the boom, but it is about to come to a nasty end. It is unsustainable and I am afraid that the fall out is likely to be worse than the last correction between 1989-1995. I personally predict an average of 50%+ real term falls (as sad as that may sound) and London will not be immune.
diane, London, UK
Buy to let is not the UK sub-prime market, we have our healthy sub prime market already, (including sub prime buy to let mortgages). Why does no-one mention what actually happened in the US market: 100% mortgages for people with bad credit profiles, payments deferred for 2 years. In those 2 years the FED stuck rates up circa 17 times in a row, no wonder they had a 'few' problems. Who wouldn't be tempted to buy a house with no deposit and no payments for 2 years?
Ewan , sherborne,
Return on buy to let was good for me. I am selling now. On a £250k house rent is £950 that is a return of 4% at best with the property being one month a year empty and no unpridicted nasties. Mortgage rates are 5.6% at best and likely to stay high even if BoE drops rate. Without much hope for a capital increase in the next 3 years I decided to take a 110% return on capital and keep low for a while.
Tony, London,
Richard, leeds. I certainly want BTL to fail. For a few people (relatively speaking) to hoard an essential asset and risk ruining the lives of the upcoming generation (try bringing up a family, choosing schools etc with no more than 6 months security of tenure) is immoral and should be firmly stamped upon. I don't accept the shortage argument - prices don't fall when demand genuinely and significantly exceeds supply. What we are seeing is the start of a very big bang as the property bubble bursts and I for one will shed not a single tear for the BTL brigade who face financial ruin. And, if I happen to be wrong about the market - I will vote for the political party which promises to reintroduce genuine long term security of tenure and rent control back into private rental market. Before you accuse me of being bitter, I own my own house - just one, that's all I need. Any bitterness you detect comes from a social conscience about some of the current older generation cheating the young.
Graham, Oxford, UK
seems some people want buy-to-let fail. it might be that it becomes less profitable, that doesn't mean all landlords will sell up. every business has good and bad times. if lanlords do start selling there's plenty of first time buyers to take up any slack. prices won't tumble for this reason. supply and demand. until the demand goes away prices will stay around the level they are now or increase as the economy picks up.
Richard, leeds, uk
The right decision by The Bank of Englandâs Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) demonstrates a deep understanding of present developments in capital markets, because the introduction of numerous changes to the interest rates during relatively short time period may lead to the generation of chaotic mode of operation in the UK finances, and destabilise the full macroeconomic situation. The current interest rates have to stay without any changes until 2008.
Viktor O. Ledenyov, Kharkov, Ukraine
Seb, it is really quite straightforward: when financing costs exceed rental income (as they have for some time), the only logic for holding a buy-to-let is capital appreciation. When (not if) prices fall, buy-to-let will collapse. Buy-to-let is the UK's sub-prime.
John, London,
We will now start to see how much buy to let is supporting the market. Nobody likes the sound of falling returns.
barry dupont, brighton, east sussex
Humpty Dumpty sat on a buy to let. Humpty Dumpty is about to have a great fall.
anthony, london, england
bye bye to let
george enock, tunbridge wells, kent
Well, it's only about time! House prices have gone way beyond any norms or fundamentals for far too long and to the detriment of the wider economy. A crash won't be pleasant but there is real need for price normalisation.
MB, Edinburgh,
Sorry to disappoint you Michele, but with more & more first time buyers being forced to rent for longer due to high mortgage rates, combined with a continued shortage of property in the UK (housebuilders started work this year on 9% less new developments than in the previous 2 years), buy-to-let is here to stay and will get more profitable.
A lot of this antipathy towards the buy-to-let landlord is a relection of the usual British attitude towards success; jealousy. The government isn't providing cheap rental accomodation, so someone has to fill the gap, and if they can make money from it as well, then that's an added incentive. If you can't beat them, join them!
Seb Francis, London,
Kiss buy-to-let bye bye
Michele, Richmond,