Today's figures on the housing market will come as little surprise, but they are only part of the picture.

House price inflation remains a little brisker than most people had expected, given the five interest rate rises over the past year. And the year-on-year figure is up. But still, the pace is definitely slowing.

For those taking out mortgages, it is a particularly uncertain time. High street lending rates could go up even if the Bank of England does as expected and leaves its base rate untouched tomorrow and over the coming months.

The actual interbank lending rate is more than a percentage point higher than the base rate, the biggest spread in 20 years.

If the storm in the credit markets only causes minor damage, it may lead to rates coming down in the medium term. But another possibility is that the problems will deepen, and the effects of the US housing recession will start to be felt on this side of the Atlantic.

Tight affordability constraints should prevent a rout in Britain's housing market. But there are plenty of other ways in which homeowners could end up being hit by a global financial crisis that shows no sign of abating.

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