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Britain’s biggest building society today warned that there were “clearer signs” of a slowdown in the housing market and claimed that millions of homeowners may now be spared another interest rate rise.
Nationwide said there had been a collapse in new buyer inquiries and that, given the current turmoil in financial markets, it was unlikely the Bank of England would raise the cost of borrowing to 6 per cent.
House prices increased by 0.6 per cent in August, to an average of £183,898, but the annual rate of inflation has fallen to 9.6 per cent, the lowest level since March.
Nationwide expects house price inflation for 2007 as a whole to slow to between 5 per cent and 8 per cent.
Fionnaula Earley, group economist, said: “The rate of house price growth lifted a little during August but the annual rate continues to fall.
“The expected slowing results from three factors: weaker affordability, the effect of higher interest rates, and lower house price expectations.
“While it has taken some time for these factors to bite, there are now clearer signs of slower demand in the market, reflected in the collapse in new buyer inquiries.”
The Bank of England’s Inflation Report earlier this month signalled that a rate rise to 6 per cent was a near certainty.
But Nationwide today said that surprisingly low inflation numbers since, and fears of a global economic downturn, "has led us to believe that rates will now remain at 5.75 per cent".
Ms Earley said: “The turmoil on credit markets strengthens the case of the doves on the Monetary Policy Committee as the MPC will be reluctant to do anything to add uncertainty while the markets remain volatile.”
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Mortgage rates are increasing without the BoE even touching the base rate. There is 100's of billions of bad debt floating around and the banks don't want to lend to each other incase they get caught out.
The BoE may spare us another rate rise but the high street lenders certainly will not.
Ms Earley has overlooked this minor issue in her statement.
Lee, Bognor regis, UK
Wot, no house price crash? Almost every article on this subject makes the tenuous claim that prices wont fall, but just stagnate for a couple of years, then go up. I see no evidence for that. The house market in the south of England is gridlocked. The amount of property coming on the market is the lowest in the last 20 years, it seems to take at least 3-4 months to sell, usually after accepting a reduction in the asking price. And now we have a credit crunch upon us and a tightening of lending conditions. No longer will someone with an income of 20K be able to self-certify for a 40-year 200K interest-only mortgage (madness!). Inevitably there will be a correction, look what's happened in the USA. I know that supply is constrained in the UK, but so is wages growth. Who exactly can afford these astronomical prices (240K for a 3-bed ex-council semi!) once the lending binge ends? Rental yields are worse now than a deposit account. Prices will fall, 20-30%. Remember the 80s!
Samuel Frewson, Guildford,
Supply and Demand vs Rents
Allow me to explain.
There are very few houses up for purchase compared to the number of people who wish to buy them.
So, supply low, demand high, price high.
However, part of the reason for this, is buy to let.
There are lots of houses for rent, and few people who wish to rent them, so rents are forced down.
Supply and demand, but in more than one market.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
The usual suspects with vested interests in the housing sales and mortgage market are out in force again just as the BOE starts its monthly meeting.
I happpen to think the BOE should leave things as they are for the present to see how the wider ecomony deals with the present level of rates. Consumer confidence is less robust than previously- feel good factor slipping a little.
Ian J, Woking, UK
The current level of house prices is too high for first time buyers and there is a need for house price rises to freeze for the earnings to rise to be able to borrow and service the loans. At prsent the level of borrowing is also too high which can result in similar situation as in the US. The BOE's decision should be based on inflation data and overall market performance and not on the downturn in the housing market. It may be good news for house prices to slow down for few years as the level of increases has been out of all proportion and has benefited few.
Mukesh Shah, London, England
I believe the Bank of England's remit is to maintain inflation, as measured by the dubious CPI, to within 1% of a 2% target. It is not to maintain a healthy house market. Houses are grossly over-valued. High house prices are only part due to supply-and-demand. The proof? Rents have not risen in line with house prices. Current high house prices are due to cheap and easy credit funding speculation within the market. The US was supposed to have a soft landing yet foreclosures are rising at an alarming rate. Imagine what will happen here given the high levels personal debt.
That there will be a credit crunch is not under dispute. How bad the crunch will be has yet to be calculated.
As for Ms Earley? It is in her organisation's interest for the market to be lively. "She would say that, wouldn't she!"
NickT, Aldershot, Hants,
I do not see a house price slowdown in my area (West London) and prices of common goods have been rising steadily. I hope that the Bank of England will deliver some good news for savers and help maintain our purchasing power with a rate rise.
John, LONDON ,
Why is it when house prices are rising at rates way above inflation and way above pay rise increase, interest rates are not raised? .
However as soon as the house price inflation slows slightly there is talk of interest rates being lowered.
Why? The two are either connected or they are not.
Chris Eades, Chipping Norton, Oxon
Rate-setting focuses on consumer-price inflation at that, not asset-price inflation so house price inflation is irrelevant. The price of housing is not included in the BoE's CPI measure (for controversial reasons) so there is no need for them to respond to a drop in house prices with a rate cut or hold. Lenders and estate agents were happy to see low interest rates when house prices were heavily inflating so why do they see a link between house prices and inflation all of a sudden now that prices are dropping?
MB, Edinburgh,
And it doesn't help that the central banks seem to be 'inventing' large sums of money to plug the wholes in the credit market which in itself will be inflationary.
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
I thought the Bank of Enland officially didn't include House Prices in thier calculations, isn't that the difference between the Consumer Price Inex and the Retail Price Index? Or is it the Nationwide that is setting the rates?
Colin, Glasgow,
Nice try Ms Earley, but inflation is still a very real threat. The Monetary Policy Committee does not target asset prices in deciding whether to raise or lower rates, whatever you tell them they should do.
paul, London, UK
Ms. Earley is a hilarious! Did she go to the Alastair Campbell School of Spin? What I'd really like her to tell us is exactly when the did MPC's mandate increase to include management of the housing market? I was under the impression that it was strictly limited to looking at inflation only.
Paddles, London,