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One of Britain’s biggest financial trade bodies warned the Bank of England today not to raise interest rates to 6 per cent despite revealing that mortgage lending soared to a record £34.2 billion in June.
The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) urged the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee to “carefully assess” the impact of the five rate hikes made over the past year before taking any further action.
The body, which represents banks and building societies across the UK, added that June’s record gross lending figure may have been distorted by the sheer number of homebuyers rushing to complete before rates went up, as widely predicted beforehand, in July.
Michael Coogan, the CML director-general, said: “Despite the record level of mortgage lending, there are signs that the market is feeling the cumulative effects of the five interest rate rises we have seen over the past year.
“This effect will become more evident in the coming months.
"We believe the MPC should carefully assess the impact of past rises on inflationary pressures before it takes further action."
The warning came as official figures showed that retail sales in June were 3.4 per cent up on a year ago, slightly less than expected, adding to the case for rates to be kept on hold.
The Office for National Statistics added that food sales rose by their lowest monthly rate since 1999.
Halifax, the UK mortgage lender, later increased its forecast on house price inflation for 2007 as a whole from a previous 4 per cent to 6 per cent but put the rise down to faster than expected growth in the first six months of the year. It said that price inflation was now beginning to slow.
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said: “There are an increasing number of signs that consumer-related areas are experiencing a slowdown.
“And that supports the argument that the Monetary Policy Committee should wait and see for a number of months rather than rush into raising rates.”
The Bank of England pushed the cost of borrowing up to 5.75 per cent this month, a move expected for weeks beforehand.
Stronger-than-expected inflation figures yesterday briefly raised fears that rates could rise next month.
The £34.2 billion of gross mortgage lending recorded by the CML in June compares with £31.4 billion in May — a 9 per cent rise.
The month-on-month increase was 12 per cent in 2006 and 15 per cent in 2005.
The CML said that much of June’s record was driven by remortgaging rather than new home loans.
Only two days ago, the CML said house prices could rise by the smallest amount for more than a decade in 2008.
House price growth is running at 10 per cent, but the CML expects this rate to halve by the end of the year.
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Perhaps if the CML should instead write to its own members and encourage to lend them sensibly (max of 70% of quick execution value, like here in The Netherlands). That would certainly work towards stabilising the house prices and contribute towards lower interest rates in the long term.
Housing prices are only one driver of inflation... Oil prices are around USD70 per barrel, and expected to go up, consumer debt is massive, according to my elementary understanding of economics, BoE has no option but to raise interest rates further.
Emma, The Hague, , The Netherlands
Never forget that Houses are not actually rising in value, it is the value of money (£) that is falling!
However the current bout of house price inflation is not simply a product of the governments persistent failure to control the money supply, but it also a product of rigidities in the supply of housing, based upon the Governments policies of encouraging building largely where no one wants to live.
And why is it that we totally ignore the impact on the demand side of the market from the Governments total disinterest in controlling immigration into this country.
I would have thought it was self evident that they all have to live somewhere. Houses one presumes?
Simple solution build more houses where they are needed, and let the free market decide, where that is, rather than leaving it to politicians, they have made a big enough mess of it as it is.
Tim, Dorset,
Simple , control the the valuation source within the housing market , we get carried away with the talk of lending, and tend to forget about the little estate agents in cahoots with surveyors ! pushing for profits allround, where on Earth does one get the price indication for a house ??? they don't they make it up :-).... because it is not controlled ! higher the value higher the profits everywhere, from vendor to lender and everyone in between ! ££££££££ is all what matters the lending part is simply a tool to purchase.Everyone who is just sitting on the fence hoping for house prices to fall and snap up a bargain are mislead, it may fall , but what happens? lending reduces and less mortgages are underwritten due to insurance ,making buying very difficult ... so if you think it will be easy to buy when it instantly crashes think again... the boom will start again, its the way it is...
pete, northampton, northhants
Does not really matter what the CML says. If inflation is high, interest rates will keep going up... like it or not!
Michelle, Richmond,
The housing market is precisely that, a market. If interest rates rise further then prices will eventually fall, increasing supply will reduce prices, but as prices fall so demand will rise again. This is the free market. The UK needs to consider banking regulation for mortgages and lending as per several countries in Europe. 30% deposit, all mortgages fixed rate and insured so when unable to work for legitimate reasons then you dont lose your house. Result people rent until mid 30's when have stable job/family and then buy house that they live in for many years. Removes speculation which is fueling rises. Credit cards similar problem, in many countries have to be paid off in full in 1 month or withdrawn. Financial discipline needs to restored and enforced.
DHM, Chichester,
They can't have it both ways. The last time inflation was this high, interest rates were 7%! So are these banks "warning" the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England that they should just forget about inflation and let inflation expectations run riot? Perhaps the MPC should issue their own "warning" to lenders not to be so eager to lend - it's not done the US any good after all ....
paul, London, UK
What is with these first time buyers. There is more stock coming onto the market as we speak - it just might not be in the most desirable areas. Lets think about this for a second - if an area has already arrived, its fair to say there is not much opportunity to add more homes to the location. i.e. Chelsea, however if somewhere is up and coming i.e. Norbury/Streatham then there are opportunites to buy. Now it might not be your favorite area, but a least you can get on the ladder. To be honest its probably quiker to get to the city from there than Chelsea.
Stop wishing for the market to fall or crash, because even if it did you still would'nt buy anything because you would be petrified of buying in a falling market.
If your house/flat is your home, what does it matter if you pay 5% more today because if poperty continues to grow as it has since the end of the 2nd World War i.e doubling approx every 10yrs you will be quids in 5-7.
Joe, London,
for those who don't understand economics..
If inflation hits say 3% interest rates will rise to about 6.5%
If inflation hits 4% interest rates will hit about 8%
If inflation hits 5% interest rates will hit about 10%+
Get the picture. Mortgages have nothing to do with it.
des, Handsworth, UK
The CML always seem to assume that a down ward shift in house prices is bad - it ISN'T. The real pain is being felt by wannabee first time buyers and those whose family needs require a shift up market. Property is massively overpriced and needs to fall. The banks are terrified that they now face the pain of their irresponsible lending policies, which have helped inflate the bubble in the first place. TOUGH! The BoE must remain resolute and keep interest rates where they need to be the rescue the economy in the long term. The banks should have thought about the potential downside when they rushed headlong in search of market share with little thought for prudent lending practices.
Howard, Brighton, UK
"The CML urges the Bank of England to wait before acting again on rates despite record £34.2bn June lending figure"
They would say that woudn't they.......
Andy, Yorkshire,
I have carefully assesed the impact of the past 5 rate increases,and everything that I observe,shows the need for further hikes.
Naturally the CML does not want to see member profits reduced should lending be cut back. The irresponsibility of past and present levels of lending is unbelievable.
Pounds 34.2 billion June lending surely makes the case for further increases obvious,before serious financial chaos results. Action by the MPC is imperative.
Nic, Royan, France
Gavin. Your supposition that a hike in interest rates will materially improve your deposit and hence time to get into the market is weak. The improvement in your investment interest will be inconsequential compared with the lenders assessment of your affordability index which will decrease as interest levels rise. Furthermore there is currently no evidence to suggest any significant lessoning in property prices - and if there were, would you happen to time your entry into the market at the lowest point or would you potentially move into negative equity.
Jon Williams, London, UK
Does this mean that the trade body of mortgage companies is admitting that its members have knowingly sold financial products to people that it KNOWS will not be able afford them even at below historical averages of interest rates - sounds like an admission guilt ang greed - bring on the mis selling scandal!
S Baker, Harrogate, North Yorkshire
This happened in 1989, I distinctly remember it. As interest rates started to rise there was a rush into property. It was totally perverse and I have no idea why it happened.
I remember seeing one guy on the TV saying that the combination of rising prices and rising interest rates meant that "if I don't get in now, I won't be able to afford it". He simply had not cottoned on that rising interest rates was likely to lead to falling prices. I wonder how many people out there are similarly confused?
Matt, London, UK
I want 6% next month, I am a first time buyer saving for a deposit. Interest rates hikes help my savings while hopefully lowering property prices to affordable levels. All those who mortgaged themselves to the max should of been aware that interest rates go up as well as down.
Gavin, London,
The primary concern of the Bank Of England - through the MPC - is to keep inflation down. If rising house prices are a cause of inflation then interest rates have to rise and tough luck on mortgage lenders and borrowers.
If factors other than mortgage rates are having an inflationary effect on the economy and interest rates have to rise - again it is tough luck on mortgage lenders and borrowers.
Are mortgage lenders and borrowers happy about inflation rising and the economy going into slow down or recession? If they are then they are fools.
If mortgage lenders have loaned too much and mortgage borrowers have borrowed too much then that is their problem.
I repeat the Bank Of England, through the MPC, has a much wider picture to look at and use their judgement accordingly to set interest rates. They cannot take the opinion and requirements of one section of the economy as overriding all others.
I speak as a businessman, home owner and mortgage holder.
Alex, Waterlooville, Hampshire
In summary:
Quote 1:
"I'm lending, lending, lending, lending,,,,,,,,"
Quote 2:
"Ooo, you've made it far too expensive to lend"
Ian, Gloucester,
If lenders had stuck to sensible lending criteria and not continued to feed the market with ever higher lending multiples the market would have self-corrected a long time ago and more softly than it ever will now. They cannot keep upping salary multiples without it coming back to bite them.
Paul Giles, Wokingham, UK
Well one point of view I suppose...
But I am more interested about the consumer debt of 167% of GDP that needs to be paid back and inflation.
IR's of 6.5% by xmas and 7.5% by May next year. Otherwise like Kirsty Allsop who said she would eat her hat if house prices fell, I will eat mine.
Pete Balchin, Solicitor, Bristol, uk
Maybe someone should inform the CML that the MPC's remit is to control CPI, not house price inflation...
Mark, Reading, UK
No lobby group like the CML should be allowed to influence the Bank of England on its rate-setting policy. Interest rates are not all about housing, they are about inflationary pressures in the economy and the BoE needs to respond to keep inflation down not to keep house prices up.
It's a little rich of the CML to try to avert a crash anyway when their members are the ones who have benefited in the form of record profits from the housing bubble. If they had tackled some of the shadier aspects of mortgage lending before this (e.g. lending with no proof of income, 120% mortgages etc) then the bubble would never have been so bad and a crash would not now be imminent.
MB, Edinburgh,