Steve Hawkes
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The odds of two further interest rates hikes this year shortened dramatically today as Britain’s biggest building society revealed that house prices were increasing at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2005.
Economists said it was now almost certain that the Bank of England will put the cost of borrowing up by a further quarter point to 5.75 per cent next Thursday - the fifth rate rise since last August - with another to follow before the end of the year.
Nationwide revealed that house prices have climbed by 1.1 per cent this month, taking the annual rate to 11.1 per cent, or more than £50 a day.
It said that while the housing market should still slow towards the end of the year, the house price growth rate for 2007 as a whole could still be 8 per cent.
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist, said that the price of a typical house was now £184,070, more than £18,000 higher than this time last year.
She added: “The resilience of the housing market will be another component to add to the rate rise camp’s argument.
“While we expected interest rates to increase to 5.75 per cent in August, this news will set the stage for that rate rise to move forward to July and for the risk of a rise to 6 per cent to increase significantly.”
Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, said: “The Bank of England seems certain to lift interest rates by a further 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent in July or August, and we favour July.”
Nationwide's figures come two days after the Sir John Gieve, the Bank of England's deputy governor for financial stability, said the current interest rate level was too low to curb credit and demand growth.
Sir John, who voted for a rate rise earlier this month, said that it was better to tackle inflation than worry about the effects a further rate rise would have on economic growth.
Yesterday, the British Bankers Association said that mortgage approvals in May were at a six-month high despite the higher cost of borrowing.
Ms Earley put June's strong house price figures down to "volatility" and a lacklustre June last year but admitted a shortage of housing stock and high demand was continuing to underpin the market.
However, she stressed that the four interest rate rises seen in the past 10 months were beginning to have an effect with estate agents beginning to see a drop off in the number of enquiries from new buyers.
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Could some-one explain to me why pushing interest rates up to 'encourage 'saving can be expected to reduce spending.(Isn't paying interest charges 'spending' ?). The way I see it, banks etc. are businesses that make money out of money and so, even if I dilligently put my money in a savings account (and get the higher interest rate to spend later), the banks must lend it to some-one else at an even higher rate and/or impose draconian charges on those already in debt ..or go bust. How does either solve overall debt?? It just deepens it for some, extends its net to entangle those who have not been spendthrift but are genuinly on low incomes and tight budgets, and through higher savings rates, gives more (to spend) to those who already have a surplus.
Why not try keeping rates down and curb spending/debt through enforcing tighter rules/limits on lending and cracking down hard on irresponsible lenders and dishonest claims about incomes to get credit, mortgages etc..
Edna, Cardiff,
We do not need unskilled labour we have to much of that already. We also have 5/6 million natives of working age who should be working they are almost all unskilled. Immigration on the current scale can only lead to vast problems. We are already seeing the tip of that iceberg. people talk of racism about the Poles that is very silly talk they are the same race as us.They think like us look like us and they will be of us. They can and will be assimulated. This cannot be said of many groups who want to come here We cannot allow states within states to grow up unchecked. I dont think I would like any relative of mine to be under the care of either of the two Glasgow airport doctors of this last weekend. We saw their contribution to Great Britain How many more are here and how many more are wanting to come.
Mass immmigration must have a large impact on the availabe housing stock,good maybe for those who own it horrible for those who now will never be able to buy.
J Smith, chichester,
So, Steve, exactly how will we pay? Sure, there's a shortage of housing stock and that drives prices up. That's market forces, and they are unlikely to spell the end of the world.
What's more, employment in the UK is at such high levels that the economy needs unskilled labour which is supplied by immigration. This is a pattern that has been seen for quite some time in the UK. In fact, it's been a consistent pattern for approximately 1,000 years, and despite the calls of doomsayers through the ages, it manages to work itself out fairly nicely.
I categorically am not suggesting that there is any racism behind your view, but for many others the anti-immigration debate is just racism hiding under misconstructed economic and social arguments.
Iain, London,
I don't think it is immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who are buying up the houses and racking up credit card debts. The majority of immgrants come to Britain to work, not to sponge off the system, unlike many British citizens who seem to think the world owes them a living and take on mountains of debt, only to moan about how they can't afford to to pay it off later.
Helen, Reading, UK
The BoE must hold its nerve. This steep rise could be the result of people exchanging contracts to beat the government's dreaded HIPs. A further rise triggered by this could be the start of a tumble in prices as there are still more households falling into default despite the apparent rise.
What a bureaucratic, regulation-addicted executive we have in charge at present. And the man responsible has just moved next door!
Edwin Thornber, Bucharest, Romania
When it comes to house price inflation the main problem is that most home owners are happy about it. Hence any significant move by the government to depress house prices will cost an aweful lot of votes. Guess what they are likely to do.
The obvious answer is to increase substantially the supply of new housing in a way which does not affect adversely the price of existing housing, at least not immediately.
The current problem is that Yvette Cooper does not have the intellect to do the intelligent thing nor the political muscle.
There is plenty of land in docklands to build on and to solve London's problems.
Marek, London,
About time too. The housing market has been insane for some years now, and needs a sharp shock to stop the false assumption that prices will always rise. We are storing up economic chaos for future generations needing housing.
Steve, Worcestershire,
Fear? Fear of a rate rise - I don't think so. The sooner interest rates SOAR the sooner the horrific housing market will be stuffed back to the bronze age and we can all forget about houses, house price inflation, vested interests spouting their vile lies and awful property programmes on TV. If the over extended suffer then let them suffer. Ice cold bottles of Schadenfreude for everyone, I hear 2007 will be an excellent year.
Steve, Salisbury, UK
Inward migration on an unlimited and unprecedented scale is the main cause of the imbalance between demand and supply in the housing market. Chances for the indigenous population to access social housing are minimised as welfare in this country is focused on the 'point of greatest need'.
Those daring to challenge the 'wisdom' of the government's 'policies' is immediately branded racist and the debate is promptly shut down.
Complete folly.
Rick, London, England
I understand peoples views about more people entering our country, however the birth rate of the UK is currently not enough to sustain our current population numbers and so we should be welcoming more people to our grassy shores. Whilst I appreciate that first time buyers will struggle and their needs have to be addressed, those in the market should see their own house prices rise alongside the house they want to buy, in the meantime if we dont have people entering our country to work then there wont be enough working people to pay the pensions of those who have retired, trade off, which would you prefer?
JJ, London,
I saw an interview with the husband and wife ex-maths teachers who have a £240m buy to let portfolio in Kent. The husband said that house prices increase when interest rates go up and fall when they go down.
Sounds counterintuitive, but he is the one with the £240m, so I thought I should listen. When interest rates fell in 2003/4 so did house prices in central London and I bought at a good price. Now rates are increasing and so are house prices.
Looks like he is right.
Gareth, London,
The BOE have been wrong since 2002 regarding the economy and of course the housing market. They made money too cheap for too long so now they will have to overshoot topside with rates. Rates and pinpoint accuracy re growth etc will not happen and should not be expected,but they could have done better than this. The more they have to overshoot tbecause of their excessive caution the more people they will eventually end up hurting.
They might consider that shocking the market is exactly what is required on occasion , not doing so becomes self defeating.
SC, MANCHESTER, LANCS
and what has it to do with house prices except a reason for propaganda?
Prices will rise as long as banks will keep re-mortgage people already owning 2+ houses wanting more and more. Where do you think this demand is coming from, first buyers? There are some people buying out everything to rent it to others in order to pay off banks. No rates rises will stop it. Landlords will add it to rents. People will not leave.
It is a vicious circle and when it finally brakes there will be hell on earth.
Lukasz, London,
If the MPC had bitten the bullet months ago and upped rates significantly,then the present situation would have been avoided.
These little 0.25% increases in the rate have no immediate impact.
I wonder if the MPC members ever read the comments of "ordinary people" nearly all of whom are very critical of the timid MPC rate decisions.These ordinary people are highly intelligent.
For the Governor and his deputy to have been outvoted last month,mainly due to the Brown political appointees on the MPC, is tragic.
Also,and very important,the interest rates are set based on an artificially low official rate of inflation.This obviously means that the rates are totally unrealistic.
Nic, Royan, France
It is hardly a surprise that a current rate of 1% real when measured against the RPI is failing to cool anything very much. The only surprise is that any members of Monetary Policy Committee ever imagined it would. Some of them clearly need to get out more. Given that cash on deposit will yield a zero or negative return after tax there is no incentive to stop borrowing and spending. Combine that with dangerous signals that inflationary expectations are already starting to impact labour costs and it is beginning to look like things could get out of control. Most businesses faced with cost pressures in the current climate do not have to spend more than a few seconds deciding whether or not to increase their prices proportionately.
The only question now is will another reluctant, heel dragging baby step of 1/4% be enough and will it restore the Bank's fraying credibility?
J. Mackay, London, UK
Rachel Lomax Deputy Governor is quoted in the FT that "she worries about putting rates up too far and not being able to cut them"
The question is why could the BOE not cut rates - possibly because inflation is too high.
This begs the question whether some members of the Bank of England monetary policy committee are going soft on inflation and are prepared to tolerate higher inflation.
Concerned, NI, UK
"..we will all pay dearly for the mult-cultural experiment."
It's not a multi-cultural experiment it's an economic experiment. What do you get if you mix a free market economy, with free movement of capital and people, with a communist planning system for land use? High demand for and a restricted supply of land.
People who think a free market is great have no business complaining when people move around to take up the extra jobs an expanding economy provides. Do you want us to be like France, a great place to retire but hopeless if you want a job?
John Small, Faversham, UK
I saw on the usually left-wing BBC news last night there are 2 million (thats the official figure add another 1 million illegals) more people in this small country of ours than in 1997-this wont go away and we will all pay dearly for the mult-cultural experiment.
Steve, Warwickshire, U.k