Robert Lindsay
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The prospect of further rises in borrowing costs heightened today as The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee disclosed that just one vote kept interest rates on hold this month.
Four of the nine members including the Governor Mervyn King and deputy Sir John Gieve voted for a 0.25 per cent rise while the remaining five voted to keep rates unchanged at 5.5 per cent. It is the first time since August 2005 that Mr King has been out-voted.
The vote was much closer than expected with most expecting a 7-2 vote in favour of a hold and analysts immediately said the markets should "batten down the hatches" for a July rate rise. The pound rose sharply in response gaining 2 cents in early trading to $1.9902.
Ian Stannard at BNP Paribas said: “The minutes were far more hawkish than the market was looking for.”
ING economist James Knightley said: “This vote is a major surprise and suggests that a July hike is probable, as we have been forecasting, with clear upside risks thereafter.”
Howard Archer of Global Insight said: "A further 25 basis points interest rate hike in July now looks highly likely, given that four MPC members were in favour of raising interest rates in June. Furthermore, the minutes give the impression that for some of the other MPC members, it was a question of when to raise interest rates again rather than if."
He added: "There is clearly a very real risk that interest rates will reach 6 per cent before the end of the year.
The split decision came amid concerns that four previous increases in interest rates since last summer - including the latest rise in May - were failing to slow economic growth.
The minutes said: “The economy was still growing robustly despite the rise in official interest rates since August.”
Members of the committee pushing for a rise - including the Governor - argued that there was “no compelling reason to wait” with another hike expected by the markets.
Those voting to hold rates argued that pushing up rates for the second successive month could act as a threat to growth.
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History has confirmed that the Governor was correct on the last occasion he disagreed with the majority. I hope that the MPC listen to him at the next meeting or else we might see confirmed "a stitch in time saves nine"
Concerned, NI, UK
The Bank of England in late 2006 forecast that inflation would fall to 2% this summer. In February, it foreacst inflation would fall to below 2% towards the end of this year and in May it stuck with its forecast. However, in April 2007, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast that inflation would only fall below 2% in summer 2008 and last week the CBI also chimed in and said inflation would fall below 2% in spring 2008. If inflation will fall to 2% target in 2008 and not earlier, the Bank of England should tell the truth. Inflation eats into wage checks, savings, pensions and those on welfare benefits. The MPC should get a grip on things.
John Fernandez, London, UK
Don't be surprised that all the economic data to be released before the next interest rate decision will
be interpreted as "soft ", "slowing down " etc. but stil rising
just to influence the " doves " on the the MPC.
If the vote is to "hold " interest rates in July the MPC would
have lost all credibility.
Robin, Farnham, UK
This is not helpful to young people with mortgages!
gordon love, deal, kent
The last time this happened the Bank of England Governor was proved correct in hindsight.
Let us hope that his lead is followed next month or we may have a situation where the advice "a stitch in time saves nine" is confirmed.
Concerned, NI, UK
No surprise really. Unlike some of his colleagues King realises they are approaching the danger line on credibility. If they cross it the result will ultimately be higher rates than would have been necessary had they acted in a more timely fashion. Failure to get ahead of the game in inflationary expectations is already beginning to dent a hard won reputation.
Jim, London,
This just goes to show once again how stupid these people have been over the last few years in letting the interest-rate stay so very low for so very long. It has caused, and will continue to cause, untold grief to so many people. Good old Gordon Brown and his "Economic Miracle". The only beneficiary will be himself.
Richard, Alicante, Spain