Mervyn King may aspire to be “boring”, but he does not do consensus. June’s vote to keep interest rates on hold turns out to have been an unusually fractious meeting in which the Bank of England Governor put himself in the minority with a vote for a quarter-point rise.

As chairman of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, Mr King has the privilege of voting last. This month, he would have watched as five MPC members voted for no change and three voted for a rise. Joining the hawkish faction (where he is most comfortable) was intended to send a message to the market; it could not change the result.

So June marked the first time that the Governor was defeated voting for higher interest rates. Bank watchers will note the echoes of August 2005, when he was in the minority calling for no change against five members who opted for lower policy – something that many now see as the MPC’s biggest mistake of recent years. They will also note that Sir John Gieve, a relatively consensual MPC member, voted for higher rates.

The minutes show a fairly standard discussion around the risks of a downturn in consumer spending, weak employment, but robust growth and mixed signals on the housing market. More interesting is the discussion of the growth of the money supply: this seems to have been lengthy and divisive. Mr King is one of those who believes the MPC has not paid enough attention to monetary indicators in recent years. Overall, the committee said, “the rapid growth of money and credit... posed an upside risk to spending and inflation.”

Hawks made the point that “in order to meet the inflation target there had to be some offsetting weakness in service sector price inflation”. Others, however, said that the markets (who had attached a one-in-three chance to higher rates) would be surprised by an increase. They probably include Paul Tucker.

But thanks to this closest of votes, the market is now prepared. An increase would no longer be a surprise – and Mr Tucker could safely vote for one.

What does it mean for interest rates? When the dust has cleared, it’s pretty simple: interest rates are now very likely to go up next month.

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