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The Bank of England's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously in favour of a quarter-point rise in the interest rate to 5.5 per cent earlier this month.
In minutes from the meeting on May 9 and 10, it is also revealed that some members proposed that the UK borrowing cost should be increased by half a point, bringing it to 5.75 per cent, because of concerns over rising inflation. The market had expected the MPC to vote eight to one in favour of a quarter-point increase, with David Blanchflower singled out as the likely dissenter.
Last month, Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor, was forced to write a letter to Gordon Brown after inflation reached 3.1 per cent.
However, members seeking a half-point rise saw their concerns balanced by their colleagues. who argued that the MPC should move cautiously, given “more than usual uncertainty” on predicting inflation in the medium term.
While it is clear that another interest rate rise is on the way, the MPC’s comments suggest it will not happen immediately.
It said: “If the Committee had been reasonably confident about the need for another interest rate rise soon, then a strong case could have been made for an increase of 50 basis points this month.”
Some market commentators speculate that the borrowing cost could rise by a quarter-point to 5.75 per cent in July and could reach 6 per cent if inflation climbs.
The MPC has increased interest rates four times in ten months.
The minutes show that, while the committee is seeing signs of the housing market slowing down, it admits: “The full impact of the increases in Bank Rate since August 2006 had not yet been passed through to the average mortgage rates.”
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J. Mackay: the fact that your postman is investing in BTL at all tells me all I need to know about the property market. When it gets to the stage where postmen (who, we're told, earn about 20,000 p.a.) are leveraging their home equity in complex credit deals to "invest in a buy-to-let portfolio" it's time for all sane investors to exit the market pronto.
As for the MPC, they have been far too relaxed about asset price inflation, especially housing which is one type of asset price inflation they can easily influence. They're by no means the worst offenders, however, and it certainly is trying that the Govt has no will to tackle this troublesome housing bubble e.g. through taxation reform or building programmes.
MB, Edinburgh,
Inflation (or the rising cost of livling) is much higher than 2.8%. What incentive is there to save once tax has been paid?
It's vital that we do not try to inflate our way out of problems. It just stores them up for the future.
Paul Cahill, Sevenoaks, Kent
I think the B of E is right to be cautious about rate increases. After all there is no guarantee that the economy can withstand a rate of more than 1% in real terms ( if measured against RPI. )
The increases to date are already having an effect. Why, only the other day I was talking to our postman about his portfolio of buy to let properties, and he is becoming much more cautious. At the beginning of the year he was forecasting capital growth of 20%, but his expectation is now only for 12% to 15%. Not only that, but he usually increases his borrowings for reinvestment at the end of each year by 80% of the value increase but he intends to restrict this to only 60% this time.
I cannot understand the recent criticism of the Bank on grounds of lack of transparency and clarity. Over the the past couple of years it has always been very clear to me what the MPC has been aiming to do, and the scale and timing of rate movements have come as no surprise to me whatsoever.
J. Mackay, London,
The MPC are sending out the right signals. Let's hope that they follow through with right action.
Caroline, City,
What is Mr Blanchflower doing on the MPC?
Any one who did not vote for the quarter per cent increase in base rates,has no credibility in the present existing UK financial situation.
Also,for the MPC not to have voted for a one half per cent rate increase was ,to my mind,a weak decision-.which we have become used to in past months.
I blame the MPC to a large extent on the present disturbing situation.
True inflation is surely greatly in excess of the official figures,so obviously it follows that the present bank rate is too low and does not address the true situation.If decisions are made on false numbers there is a huge problem.Enough said!
Nic, Royan, France