Steve Hawkes
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Fears that world oil prices could soar to record levels of $80 a barrel this year emerged today as a leading think-tank urged Opec to increase global production of crude.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) gave warning that unless Opec members pushed up output by more than two million barrels a day in the next six months there would be a “dramatic” squeeze on oil stocks.
The IEA said that gasoline supplies in the US were already at a 16-year low for this time of year.
Pump prices in the US have surged to more than $3 a gallon.
More than 800,000 barrels a day of production in Nigeria is shut down and out of bounds because of a spate of bombings and kidnappings in the Delta region of the country.
David Fyfe, an IEA analyst, said: “Unless Opec moves production up then inventories will tighten dramatically. People can draw their own conclusions about what would happen to price.”
Rob Laughlin, a trader for GNI Man Financial, said that Brent crude could “easily” hit $80 a barrel, beating the record that was set last year.
Brent was trading at $66 a barrel today.
Mr Laughlin told Times Online: “We are going to be heading back towards record levels. We could easily get to $80.
“I’m not trying to be a scaremonger, but the fact is that gasoline stocks are low and there is still not enough refining capacity to cope with demand.”
In its monthly report the IEA said that the "call" on Opec production would rise by 2.3 million barrels a day by the fourth quarter of the year.
This is more than 8 per cent higher than Opec output in April of 26.75 million barrels a day, rising to 30.35 million once Angola and Iraq were included.
Opec ministers have raised speculation that the members may cut output by 500,000 barrels.
The next Opec meeting will be held in Vienna in September.
A switch to cleaner and greener fuels has placed new strains on refineries around the world, which have to switch capacity over to sweeter crudes.
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Ummmm yes Opec does have the capacity to boost production. In fact, its total spare capacity increased from less than 10% in 2005 to more than 14% today.... and its still growing...
The main point is what oil price do Opec nations need to balance their budgets-- $50 is the floor, so they'll defend that price..
Raja, dubai,
Welcome back to 1970. It is unlikely that OPEC has the capability of raising production. There is only so much oil. Cheney was warning us back in 1999.
It is in their interests not to do so. They will squeeze the west as they did in the 70's.
Paul Price, Warrington, England
Bring on the nuclear reactors
William Alexander, delta, Canada