Whatever the most apt description of this week’s visit by Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, the president of Opec, to Beijing, no one should be in any doubt about the size of the stakes. Representatives of the most important providers of world energy are meeting the deputies of a country that in a few short years could be the world’s largest and most dynamic economy.

The mighty USA has rival claims on both these titles. It is easy to forget that it is a huge producer of oil because it consumes most of the output itself. It still holds a commanding position on the global economic landscape, too. But the fact that the US economic powerhouse is, and always has been, self-sufficient in oil makes the Opec-China relationship all the more intriguing. Or frightening.

The US economy was built on oil. It may have developed other self-sustaining strengths in the second half of the past century but it is no coincidence that the US economy emerged at the same time as it discovered and utilised its oil. China has some oil but its days of self-sufficiency are long since past. And the Chinese hydrocarbon deficit widens with an alacrity equal to or exceeding Chinese economic growth.

The foundations of the Chinese economy need not be undermined by the paucity of its oil reserves. But China needs secure sources of energy if the lack of hydrocarbons is not to become a problem. The careful dancing of the sheiks and mandarins is given additional piquancy because Opec countries keep estimates of their oil reserves closely guarded. Saudi Arabia guards its reserves information especially closely.

The intrigue deepens further when one examines Opec’s concerns. China will not rely on Opec producers for all its imported oil needs. The new mandarins of the Middle Kingdom would never leave themselves so exposed. In the fullness of time Russian hydrocarbons may prove to be just as important to China. They may prove to be more important. But Opec will want to secure a share of the action.

Perhaps more critically, however, Opec countries need a full understanding of the scale of China’s needs. It may meet some of those needs itself by delivering barrels of the black stuff. But the price at which it sells all its output will be affected by Chinese demand.

The world oil market is incredibly large but it is also remarkably tight, and relatively small shifts in the supply and demand equation can have exaggerated effects on the price of oil. Chinese demand, meanwhile, will be no small influence. It is likely to be the largest part of the equation.

The task is made no easier because it is so difficult to get accurate measures of the Chinese economy. All statistics are slippery. But this week’s astonishingly large revision of the GDP data shows that Chinese numbers need especially careful interpretation.

Observers in this country and in other Western states may feel oddly detached. But while they may have little opportunity to join the dance, they should be in no doubt that they must watch it intently and respond as necessary.

Placing a bet on a sure thing

THE announcement yesterday by Hilton Group that it has had expressions of interest in its Ladbrokes betting arm will have come as no surprise to readers of these pages.

As long ago as October, on the same day that Hilton disclosed that it was in talks to sell its hotel division, The Times reported that private equity firms such as CVC Capital Partners were circling the bookmaker.

In many ways, it would be surprising if the likes of CVC and Blackstone were not running a slide rule over Ladbrokes. It is just the sort of highly cash- generative business that can be refinanced with a truckload of debt that the company — rather than the buyer — has to service, and then sold for a tidy profit. The owners of Coral Eurobet showed the way earlier this year: they cashed in their chips to the tune of £2.2 billion.

But the sale of Coral has also thrown up a possible alternative route for Ladbrokes. Once freed from the shackles of cash-guzzling hotels, it will be in a position to use its cash to make acquisitions of its own.

Coral is now part of the Gala bingo and casino empire, creating a broadly based gambling conglomerate that targets low-ticket punters. These are mature businesses, but the strong cashflow — and, in 2007, the benefits of the Government’s new gambling laws — make them an attractive proposition.

The obvious move for Ladbrokes would be to bid for Rank Group. The addition of Rank’s casino and bingo interests would create a very similar company to the enlarged Gala.

The only problem for Ladbrokes is that William Hill, its bitter rival, has been thinking along similar lines.

Reflects badly

GORDON BROWN likes to make out he is single-handedly saving the economy. To judge by yesterday’s GDP data, he has a point — if merely in the sense that it appears to have been only his profligacy with government cash for investment that prevented growth from virtually stalling in the autumn.

Alas, what he forgets is that his largesse must be paid for through higher taxes. So while the public sector booms, the private sector cash cow that funds it is squeezed ever harder. The malign effects are obvious in the figures. A third-quarter rise of nearly 4 per cent in taxes meant that real disposable incomes rose by a meagre 0.2 per cent. Company profits outside the City rose just 0.1 per cent.

With state spending due to slow, and consumers wary, Mr Brown is relying on the corporate sector to pick up the slack. If it fails to, he need only look in the mirror to find someone to blame for the consequences.

Nipped in bud

THE tussle for control of Wyevale Gardens Centres has been unpleasantly antagonistic. Laxey, the rebel whose cause was supported yesterday, may remain uppity since Jim Hodkinson, former New Look boss and all-round party animal, was appointed chairman without its knowledge. But this may be a case of all’s well that ends well. Mr Hodkinson has notable retail skill and Robert Ware, the former MEPC executive representing Laxey on the Wyevale board, has property nous that may prove positive and complementary.

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