Nick Hasell: Tempus
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Its flagship newspaper may be a champion of traditional values, but Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT) broke with one of its own yesterday. For the first time in more than 20 years, the £1.5-billion media group failed to increase its full-year dividend.
But any payout at all might be considered a bonus. Johnston Press and Trinity Mirror, its London-listed peers, have long since cancelled theirs. More to the point, DMGT’s pre-tax profits remain under pressure: down 23 per cent at £201 million in the 12 months to September 30.
But comparisons with DMGT’s newspaper rivals look increasingly out of place on the evidence of yesterday’s numbers. With business-to-business activities now accounting for 73 per cent of group profits, up from 60 per cent last year, the likes of Informa and United Business Media should prove better points of reference.
RMS, DMGT’s US division, which provides catastrophe modelling data for earthquakes and hurricanes, was the star, with revenues up 7 per cent and profits ahead 9 per cent. The non-property interests of DMG Information also fared well: revenues up 3 per cent and profits ahead 16 per cent. That division’s businesses — Genscape (data on US power usage) and Hobsons (software used by US colleges for recruiting students) — usefully illustrate its strengths: high-margin niches based on subscription revenues where “must-have content” keeps cancellation rates low.
Other operations have yet to feel the worst: DMG World Media, the exhibitions business, where the long lead times under which bookings operate mean last autumn’s financial turmoil is now only starting to feed through. In national newspapers, DMGT has little visibility over advertising bookings but cautions that trading may get tougher after Christmas.
It is unclear, for example, how January’s VAT rise will affect both consumers and the retailers that are big spenders on space. However, vigorous cost cutting (£62 million in newspapers in the second half alone) should underpin profits for now.
The sharp rise in the pension deficit (which nearly doubled to £430 million in six months) is a concern, while £1 billion of borrowing acts as a brake on earnings-boosting acquisitions. But with the value of DMGT’s non-consumer businesses clearly showing through, and the remainder geared to cyclical recovery, the shares, at 424½p, or ten times earnings, are worth holding.
Clinton Cards
Halloween held no fears for Clinton Cards.
Britain’s biggest greetings cards retailer yesterday reported bumper trick-or-treat trading, with sales — of witches hats, broomsticks, fake blood and other ghoulish gear — up in “double digits” on last year’s event. Overall, Clinton’s like-for-like sales rose 3.9 per cent in the 16 weeks to November 22, implying a 5.6 per cent advance over the most recent six-week period.
Of course, Halloween is a one-off and, falling on a Saturday this year, provided more of an opportunity for dressing up than usual. But the showing is encouraging on several fronts.
First, it suggests Clinton can shift accessories just as well as cards, something it is testing through its start-up Pure Party chain. Second, it indicates that a postal strike has had little adverse effect on sales. Third, Clinton stocked up heavily for Halloween this year to take advantage of the absence of Woolworths, which suggests that it should also profit from its one-time rival’s demise in the run-up to Christmas, its most important trading period.
There are other potential fillips. This year’s numbers will benefit from the 183 Birthdays stores Clinton reacquired from the receivers in June. Not only will the poorly performing 140-odd stores left in administration not drag down its figures but Clinton’s reconfigured estate should be able to pick up some of their sales.
Longer-term challenges remain. Rising overheads, lower high street footfall from increased online shopping and the challenge to greetings cards from texts and social media. However, at 46p, or less than nine times earnings on the forecasts of Altium Securities, the shares are not stretched. Hold.
Hampson Industries
More than two and a half years after its scheduled first flight, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner is slated to take finally to the skies over Seattle within a matter of weeks. Aviation experts remain sceptical but shareholders in Hampson Industries will be hoping that it does.
The biggest business of the West Midlands company is now the manufacture of moulds used to make composite structures, such as aircraft wings, fairings and tailfins, and the 787 is the most visible symbol of the new generation of more fuel-efficient, lighter weight carbon-fibre aircraft on which it has staked its future.
For now, yesterday’s first-half results followed a familar course — another round of cuts to profit forecasts, the third this year. Not only is Hampson subject to aircraft programme delays but the technical advance that composites entail have made for frequent design modifications.
Further, Hampson has agreed new terms with its lenders on its £141 million of debt. That refinancing may stave off the need for a rights issue but the associated rise in interest costs will hurt profitability. That means the twin comforts from yesterday’s numbers are that tooling orders are up 27 per cent from their August low and that the company continues to pay a dividend. Hampson’s strategic bet on composites will, one day, pay off. But even at 71¼p, down 6¾p, or less than six times next year’s earnings, it feels too soon to buy.
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