The worse-than-expected jump in unemployment revealed yesterday was bad enough in itself. More than a quarter of a million additional people started looking for work in the three months to May. But the figures also add to the other recent evidence suggesting that the economic recovery may be weaker than it appeared earlier in the summer.

Last week we saw an unexpected downturn in manufacturing output for May, making it likely that the economy as a whole continued to shrink in the second quarter. However, the other jobs figure out yesterday paints a rather different picture.

The number of people claiming the jobseeker’s allowance increased by 23,800 in June, half the level that economists had expected. The figure was down on May and compares with the record 136,600 increase in January.

The good news is that the unemployment figure is much more backward-looking and may be reflecting that jump in the claimant count earlier in the year. The claimant count may be a more accurate gauge of current conditions in the labour market.

The unemployment figure is arrived at by asking a sample of the population the question, “Are you currently out of work and looking for employment?” So the numbers will include older workers who had previously retired but are now looking for a job to top up the meagre return from their savings.

On the other hand, the figure also includes people who have lost their jobs but are not eligible for the jobseeker’s allowance. And the claimant count will have been reduced by government moves to get unemployed people off benefit and into training.

Job losses have so far been less severe than in previous recessions, which may reflect the efforts of employers to protect jobs, through wage cuts or part-time working.

Some economists are now forecasting that while unemployment will continue rising for many months, it may not reach the three million mark.

Gloomier observers say that the lower-than-expected job losses we have seen so far only mean that the worst is yet to come.

And even optimists cannot ignore the one particularly grim element of yesterday’s figures — the 17 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds who were out of work in the three months to May. Youth unemployment is an even more serious problem than job losses among older workers. And with this year’s school and university leavers poised to enter the job market, the problem is about to get much worse.

Times Recommends

• Lies and cover-up at MG Rover exposed by report
• High oil prices push manufacturing costs up
• Primark founder steps down as chief executive