David Wighton: Business Editor's commentary
Claim your free 2010 double sided wall chart
Maybe it's just the weather, but there were distinct signs of economic spring around on Wednesday. There does seem to be a fairly sustained improvement in consumer confidence, admittedly from bombed-out levels, and some retailers are convinced that we are coming off the bottom.
Sir Stuart Rose, chairman of Marks & Spencer, said consumer confidence was being buoyed by low interest rates, rising stock markets and the extraordinary efforts of governments around the world to reboot their economies. His comments reinforce the findings of the latest GfK NOP survey, which show consumer confidence at its highest for a year. Confidence in the general economy over the next 12 months rose sharply, bringing it to levels not seen since the start of the credit crisis. People's outlook may have been boosted partly by the rebound in the stock market, which may appear rather circular, a bit of a confidence trick. But that doesn't make it any less significant.
The survey was carried out before the Budget, which may have an effect. But it is unlikely to be really negative, except for highly paid hedge fund managers, unless consumers were spooked by the state of the public finances, which is not what is suggested by opinion polls. And, if they were worried about future tax rises, they should have been cheered by Alistair Darling's hint yesterday that the ballooning cost of public sector pensions would have to be tackled, which surely must form a central plank of any future government's efforts to cut the budget deficit.
Meanwhile, in America, the shocking news that the economy shrank by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter also contained seeds of hope, if not genuine green shoots. Consumer spending rose 2.2 per cent, compared with a 4.3 per cent fall in the previous three months, particularly focused on durable goods. Consumer confidence appears to have stabilised, at least, amid signs of life in the critical housing market.
There was even some good news from British banks with Abbey, which is owned by Spain's Santander, revealing that it had actually cut the amount it puts aside for bad debts in the first quarter. Profits were boosted by the acquisition of Alliance & Leicester and much of Bradford & Bingley.
Bank share prices bubbled up, helped by some upbeat research by analysts at HSBC who concluded that the risk for investors had fallen sharply at Lloyds, RBS and Barclays. Barclays shares added another 10 per cent to 256p, more than five times their January low.
This all may prove just a kink in the curve. Spring is in the air and, as Sir Stuart says: “People are fed up with being fed up.” But that may be just enough to get things going.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train
In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
1998
£47,955
2004
£56,950
Essex
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
£100,000
Barnardos
UK
£123,460 pa
The Law Commission
London
Southwark County Council
Competitive + bonus + benefits
Manchester United
Central London
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Includes flights, accommodation with room upgrades, transfers city tours in Hong Kong and Bangkok.
PremierHolidays.co.uk
For your ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
Choose from the beautiful landscape and tranquil beaches of Oahu, Kauai, Maui & Big Island.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.