ANGLO AMERICAN is about to appoint a new chief executive. This is one of the best jobs in world business. It is also one of the easiest.
This may seem a strange thing to say about running a politically fraught business operating dangerous machinery underground in unstable countries and selling into an unpredictable market. Anglo employs 195,000 people, many of whom work deep down mines or, literally, at the coal face. Anglo’s future prospects lie in such investor-friendly locations as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia. Its reputation, particularly in South Africa, is as volatile as the price of its commodities.
And its image is as a listless company that it is no longer judged by its own merits, but by the likelihood of an imminent takeover or break-up.
The chief executive’s job at Anglo is, nonetheless, a gift. The contribution of the outgoing chief executive, Tony Trahar, has been widely under-estimated. Mr Trahar has set in train the structural changes needed to focus the company on its future as a diversified miner. It will spin off Mondi, the packaging business and it is selling down its stake in Anglo Gold. As you would expect of a business riding a commodities boom, the numbers are strong: Anglo reported earnings up 47 per cent at its interims in August. There is a $6.2 billion (£3.3 billion) pipeline of projects approved for development and a further $10-$15 billion of projects on the drawing board. Even amid the talk of managerial drift at Anglo, the share price is nicely buoyed by the expectations of a bid for the company.
In short, Mr Trahar’s successor has a gaping opportunity to turn around perceptions, providing a new personal dynamism, while profiting from the underlying momentum of the business. The person able to make the most of this opportunity is an outsider. The appointment of someone who did not grow up in Anglo will itself signal an appetite for change. Mr Trahar joined Anglo American in 1974.
In London, there has been speculation that Philippe Varin, the boss of Corus, is being lined up for the job. In fact, Mr Varin has been approached, but told Anglo that he wants to stay at the steelmaker. In South Africa, there has been talk that Miklos Salomon, who begins a relatively youthful retirement from BHP Billiton at the end of this week, will be asked to lead Anglo. That, too, may be wishful thinking. Anglo would have to wait for the better part of a year, before Mr Salomon had served out the non-compete clause in his contract.
Whoever gets the job will be measured by his ability to maintain Anglo’s independence. Success means showing investors that Anglo can manage its assets better than a rival, say Rio Tinto or Rusal. To achieve that, the next chief executive will have to: one, renew focus on costs and efficiencies; two, complete the portfolio restructuring; three, improve the communication and definition of strategy; and, four, drive ahead a select list of new priorities, making difficult choices between projects in Peru, Brazil, Congo and Russia. Most importantly, he will need to be able to manage people. Anglo, even after its planned spin-offs, will have about 125,000 employees, by comparison with 32,000 at BHP, 28,000 at Rio. He — and, let’s face it, the next Anglo boss is most likely to be a man — would also be well-advised to seek to depoliticise the company in South Africa.
Anglo American should not be defined as a takeover target. It should be redefined by its next chief executive.
A bold step
TAKING over from the family is a perilous prospect for any manager, especially if the family is still around, as at Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury et al. To repeat the exercise you have to be daft or, like William Perez, reckon that you learn from mistakes. Mr Perez lasted 13 months at Nike before the founder, Phil Knight, gave him the Air Jordan. Now Mr Perez is to become the first chief executive of the Wrigley Company, the first from outside the family in 114 years of making gum.
Wrigley is one of the most successful and least adventurous companies in America. It was founded in 1892, developed Juicy Fruit and Spearmint within a year and barely introduced another gum for three generations.
Mr Perez is taking a bold step. New additions to the gum family — for example, Freedent and Big Red — have discontinued. Only the Wrigleys have had that longer lasting flavour.
The decline and fall of SMG
LORD Thomson of Fleet, who once owned Scottish Television, as well as The Times, memorably described a regional ITV franchise as a licence to print money. The state of SMG, the former Scottish Media Group, shows how far that has changed: the Scottish licence looks like a death sentence.
With ITV in decline, SMG tried to expand, ran up loads of debt, and went the wrong way. SMG paid Chris Evans £225 million for Virgin Radio in 2000; after Friday’s profits warning, the whole company is worth £175 million.
It is hard to think of a less compelling investment than SMG. It is looking for a chief executive, a job you would not wish on your worst enemy. It is a “conglomerate” of modest, more or less troubled businesses. It is selling outdoor and cinema advertising. It has the two Scottish ITV1 franchises and Virgin radio. The TV prospects depend entirely on ITV plc’s ability (or otherwise) to schedule well. Virgin is performing nicely enough, but is small compared with its peers.
There’s a sort-of internet strategy, but SMG doesn’t have the promotional firepower to generate web hits from nothing.
A buyout looks tricky too: £150 million of debt on top of the equity leaves a company that would cost £325 million for a paltry £11.5 million in pre-tax profits. ITV does not need the television franchises either, although a tie-up with Northern Ireland’s UTV would make some sense. But UTV smelt trouble and abandoned a merger proposal last month. SMG needs to pick up the phone to Belfast and win the folks from Northern Ireland around. The Scottish have had their chance.
WHILE other Russian tycoons queue to hire London directors with any personal credibility, Oleg Deripaska’s Rusal has staged a coup by signing Phil Lader, the Clinton White House staffer and former US Ambassador to St James’s. Mr Lader looks well set chairing WPP and advising Morgan Stanley. Why take the reputational risk of getting involved in a Russian business with a storied past? Clues lie in his past and present. Lader made it in business by running Sir James Goldsmith’ s US interests. Mr Deripaska may seem a pussycat by comparison.
james.harding@thetimes.co.uk
