Ian King: Analysis
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The public finance figures released yesterday are truly, jaw-droppingly, awful.
First, the deterioration in tax receipts highlights just how fast the economic slowdown has been, with income and corporation tax receipts both down on November last year. It was the first time since 2003 that tax receipts have been down, year on year, for two consecutive months.
That will only get worse as the recession — already set to be the nastiest since 1980-81 — deepens. Receipts from stamp duty have all but vanished because of the collapse in the housing market, while income and corporation tax receipts will carry on falling.
VAT receipts, meanwhile, are also likely to fall sharply after Alistair Darling's decision to cut rates in the Pre-Budget Report. That only came into effect on December 1 and so, of course, had no bearing on the November figures. These, by the way, were down 15 per cent, year on year, contradicting yesterday's scarcely believable claim from the Office for National Statistics that retail sales actually rose during the month. At the same time, government spending is going in completely the wrong direction, with rising unemployment pushing up welfare payments.
Second, while not altogether a surprise, it is still a shock to learn that public sector borrowing hit £16billion last month. That is a new all-time high for a single month and suggests the Treasury's target of borrowing a total of £78billion this financial year — made, remember, less than four weeks ago — is already hopelessly out of date. With four months of the financial year still to go, borrowing already stands at £56.1 billion. At least one City economist now suggests that total borrowing will hit £90billion this year.
Third, the public sector net debt now stands at £650billion, equivalent to 44.2 per cent of Britain's annual economic output. Had Mr Darling not so publicly repudiated his predecessor's “golden rule”, that this measure should not top 40 per cent, he would certainly be having to now — although, in fairness to the Chancellor, the limit has only been busted by virtue of having to rescue Northern Rock.
With this unpromising backdrop, and Charlie Bean, the Bank of England deputy governor, hinting at zero interest rates here, it was scarcely surprising that sterling fell for a ninth consecutive day against the euro yesterday. Parity with the single currency looks a matter of time.
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