Carl Mortished
Win 100 iconic DVDs
The good news is that the incoming Democratic White House has a firm grasp that Africa is a large continent comprised of many nations (a key individual in the opposing Republican camp was shaky at this level of detail) but, beyond recognition, President-elect Obama has little to offer Africans.
Africa must fend for itself and the Senator, whose father was Kenyan, should deliver the bad news quickly: no money, no reason and no time.
America is broke; with Wall Street and Motown thrusting the begging bowl into Congress, there is no cash for foreign aid other than famine relief and the occasional bung to solve a foreign policy crisis.
Moreover, the incoming president has bigger files piling up on his desk (two wars, the economy and mounting hostility in Moscow).
Time for sub-Saharan Africa will be limited to 15 minutes on alternate Wednesdays. The third argument not to do much for Africa is the best one and, surprisingly, it is also good news.
The credit crunch has not affected sub-Saharan Africa as deeply as it has some other emerging markets. We have not seen the sudden drain of funds that sent the transition economies of Eastern Europe on a downward spiral.
Of course, much of the reason for Africa's escape is the continent's relative isolation from the financial markets. Fewer Africans have bank accounts, so demand for credit is weaker and the emerging markets of sub-Saharan Africa remain illiquid.
Less hot money flew in during the good times to fund speculative growth, which means less capital to fly out in a downturn and minimal risk of a banking collapse.
Better still, sub-Saharan Africa is no longer merely a playground for resource companies to dig metal and siphon oil.
In previous global downturns in the early 1980s and 1990s, sub-Saharan Africa fell into recession with the fall in commodity prices.
We have already seen that commodity downturn with the collapse in crude oil and base metal prices, but, surprisingly, the IMF is expecting average growth of 6 per cent next year.
Africa is no longer a commodity seam fit only to be looted. Attempts at economic reform in the so-called “frontier economies” of Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia have stimulated private consumption, says Razia Khan at Standard Chartered Bank.
An analysis of GDP growth rates in the region since 2000 showed that private consumption was the biggest factor in maintaining growth, well ahead of exports and the state payroll.
Sightings of thriving internal economies beyond South Africa is the best news that the continent has had for decades. Unfortunately, the green shoots are fragile and the boost to disposable incomes provided by economic reform is at risk from inflation, Ms Khan says.
Food is still the biggest item of personal expenditure - riots broke out this year in several countries over the price of grain and the costly burden of imported food is playing havoc with government budgets.
To fight price rises, governments have brought down import tariffs, an obvious solution but in such fragile economies, tariffs are often the State's only reliable source of income. If food inflation is not brought under control, Africa's new engines could quickly sputter and die.
Governments are subsidising food and there will be pressure to do more, hence the enthusiasm for Senator Obama. Supplicants are likely to get short shrift. America is already well-outpaced by the European Union in aid for Africa, spending about $5billion (£3.2billion) compared with the EU's €50 billion (£40.6billion).
Democrats have not in the past been distinguished Africaphiles. While President Clinton talked well about Africa, it was his successor, President Bush who secured large packages of money to support HIV-Aids and anti-malaria programmes.
Foreign aid is also unpopular; it wins few votes and is now widely viewed as a deep well of potential corruption. The fashionable view is that America should open up trade, but other than oil and metals, Africa has little to offer the US. Indeed, if the President-elect has his way, it would trade less.
He wants to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil and Africa is a leading exporter, supplying more to the US than the Gulf states. Nigeria and Angolan volumes together already exceed supplies from Saudi Arabia.
As president, Barak Obama's best gambit would be to tell Africans to look to their neighbours. The biggest untapped resource in the sub-Saharan region is consumers.
Despite war, ethnic conflict, disease and lousy infrastructure, African consumers are still supporting GDP growth rates of more than 6 per cent. This is happening despite the grotesque tariff barriers that prevent intra-African trade. What is the point of complaining about modest EU and US tariffs when the walls between Africans are so high.
Much has been made of the impression that a black president might have on America's enemies. Even more interesting might be his effect on a continent riven by ethnic rivalry and tribalism.
In a joking reference to his search for the right breed of puppy for his daughter, the senator described himself as “a mutt”. Africa, too, could do with a few mongrels in high places.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
36-month car lease
on contract hire for
£359.99 plus VAT pm
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
Check your free Experian credit report before applying
Car Insurance
c£100,000 + car, bonus & bens
Lord Search & Selection
Midlands
Competitive salary + NHS pens
The Council for Healthcare Regulatory Excellence (CHRE)
London
Not Specified
The Sheppard Trust
London
£31,842 – £38,378pa
Charity Commision
London, Liverpool or Taunton
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth
Find out about shared ownership.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now & save over £100pp.
11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.