Possibly Boris Johnson is right: there are thousands of people sitting on piles of money and anxious to go out and splurge it, the London Mayor opined at the opening of the vast Westfield shopping centre yesterday. Possibly the teeming crowds really were there to spend their hard-earned and not merely to glug free champagne and catch a glimpse of Leona Lewis, The X Factor star.

But given the souring consumer confidence data, the smart money is not betting on a shopping rebound soon. The latest housing market figures will do nothing to bolster confidence. It's only a few years ago that homeowners were making more per month from the soaring value of their property than in their pay packets.

That trend has gone into harsh reverse. The latest Nationwide House Price Survey shows average house values continuing to slide by about £3,000 a month, rather more than average monthly wages — even before tax.

People feel poorer. Potential homebuyers, who should in theory feel better off as home prices drop closer within reach, are too busy saving up a big enough deposit to satisfy the newly cautious banks to consider splashing out on anything.

The UK's plight looks even more dire beside that of the US. America was struck by the economic downturn a full year before Britain started feeling the chill. Yet America has only just recorded its first quarter of shrinking output, at exactly the same time as the UK. Moreover, the economic contraction is five times more extreme here than there.

Westfield, good luck.

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