Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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Insurance companies are lining up to tell us how strong they are. Just like the banks were doing eight months ago. No wonder ministers and regulators are taking a slightly jaundiced view of their cheery claims.
Having been accused of being asleep at the wheel before the great banking implosion, the Financial Services Authority is determined to be seen to be anticipating any potential problem in insurance.
That means weighing up a range of measures to take the heat off insurers, including suspending mark-to-market accounting. It also means hiring private sector banks and lawyers to be on standby should an insurer get into serious difficulty.
Fortunately, insurers are not prone to the same weaknesses that can topple banks. They don't employ much leverage. Customers can't instantly pull out their money without severe penalties. But anxiety about the possible weakness of insurers is nevertheless palpable, and will be intensified by the Dutch Government's decision to inject €3 billion (£2.39 billion) into Aegon, the owner of Scottish Equitable.
Insurers are vulnerable to rating agency downgrades, which can trigger awkward margin calls. They can also be hit by asset price falls, which eat away at their capital cushions. Aviva yesterday, while insisting it was strong, was forced to admit that its capital surplus had shrivelled by £600 million in the space of the past 24 days because of falling asset prices.
It doesn't help that insurance company accounts are impenetrable. It doesn't help that no country has the same rules on accounting. It is precisely that opacity and complexity that so unnerves shareholders and counterparties.
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