As the secretary-general of Opec flew into Moscow yesterday to talk about oil, Alexei Miller, the chairman of Gazprom, was jetting out of Tehran after concluding talks about gas with Iran and Qatar.

We need not worry that Russia is about to join the oily club. Today's visit by Abdullah al-Badri is a formality, but the talk of a gas cartel is a different matter. A combination of leading gas exporters, no matter how tentative, could pose a serious economic threat to Europe. We should first discount the hoopla from Gholam Hossein Nozari, the Iranian Oil Minister, who proclaimed yesterday that the talks between Russia, Iran and Qatar had reached “a consensus to set up a gas Opec”.

No such thing is likely - we can forget any notion of horse-trading gas production quotas — but what we can expect, and what we ought to fear, is the exchange of information about prices, development schedules and investment plans. Mr Miller said as much: “We have agreed to hold regular — three or four times per year — meetings of the 'big gas troika' to discuss key issues of gas market developments.”

If European steel, cement or chemical companies exchanged such information, they could expect colossal fines and the imprisonment of their directors. The point is that the information is vital for a nascent industry that is constantly in fear of price wars and market collapses.

Russia, Iran and Qatar are the world's top dogs in gas, accounting for 56 per cent of the world's known reserves, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008. Russia is already the world's leading exporter, but Qatar is in the throes of development and Iran has barely tapped its potential. So chaotic is the Islamic Republic's energy infrastructure, and so hamstrung by American sanctions, it is forced to import gas from Turkmenistan.

Iran would like to be a big gas exporter and Mr Miller's presence at the talks in Tehran is recognition by a key player that Iran will not remain a bystander for long. Qatar is about to launch a winter convoy of vessels laden with liquefied natural gas (LNG), destined for the UK. Iran wants to export gas to Europe via the proposed Nabucco pipeline through Turkey and the Balkans; yet so far, hunger for gas has not been sufficient for European states to sign up Iran and risk the outrage of Washington.

Sooner rather than later, the European Union will snub Washington and Iranian gas will move west, threatening Russian hegemony. Gazprom commands a quarter of the European market. It has tied the big Western utilities E.ON, RWE, Gaz de France, OMV, of Austria, and Eni, of Italy, to its apron with big contracts. There is competition from Norway and Algeria, but North Sea gas is dwindling and the main threat facing Russia's desire to defend and extend its market reach is the trade in seaborne LNG and pipelines from the Middle East.

The notion of a gas exporters' club has been rumbling for years within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Promoted mainly by Iran, the idea garnered little support. Gas is an illiquid market, it was argued, sold mainly under long-term contracts and shipped via pipeline to a single customer. Until recently, there was little secondary trading in gas and no international price benchmark.

The expanding trade in LNG has changed everything. Cargoes of gas are sold en route and there is an arbitrage trade in North Atlantic gas as ships bound from North Africa to Europe can be diverted to US ports or vice versa. Russia fears that its strategy of enlarging and tightening its grip on its core market could weaken if Qatar, Iran and perhaps Iraq compete for Europe's gas markets. In Russia's nightmare, a business of old dependent relationships would become a squabble for short-term profits.

Russia desperately needs that regular cashflow from Europe - the budget depends on a $70 oil price and the evidence lies in the financial crisis in Moscow. The oil money made possible a half-trillion-dollar hoard that is being tapped to prop up a shaky banking system. Already, a tenth of the pot has been spent propping up distressed banks and businesses. Without the oil and gas cash, wisely saved by Alexei Kudrin, the Finance Minister, we would not be witnessing a rescue but a repeat of the 1998 financial collapse.

Instead, it will probably ride through this whirlwind undamaged, but Russia's long-term health still depends on adequate oil and gas revenues. We should not, therefore, be surprised to hear of more huddles between the gassy troika in the Gulf.

carl.mortished@thetimes.co.uk

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