Gerard Baker: American view
Win VIP tickets
Thank God for Gordon Brown. Like an Old Testament prophet, the Prime Minister might have been reviled and lampooned in his own country these past few months, but he is the toast of the world now.
For the first time yesterday financial markets behaved as though they believed the world might actually continue turning tomorrow. The staggeringly comprehensive European financial rescue plan - whose roots can be traced back directly to the emergency room of the Treasury - offers the first real hopes of recovery for a thaw in the frozen financial markets.
The buzz from the weekend meetings of the IMF and G7 finance ministers here in Washington was that it was the British Wot Won It. The plan announced last week to recapitalise leading banks and guarantee the liabilities of most of the banking system was deemed so impressive that it was almost immediately emulated, not only by the Europeans, but by the Americans, too.
It was striking that it was only after the British plan had been announced that Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, began to recast the $700billion bailout approved by the US Congress so that it, too, would include a large-scale capital injection into American banks.
If imitation by your professional elders is the sincerest form of flattery, then glowing encomiums from a newly minted Nobel Prize-winner must rank as some sort of secular canonisation.
Paul Krugman, the 2008 winner, used his column in The New York Times yesterday, on the day of his academic ennoblement, to lavish praise on the British Government. “What we do know is that Mr Brown and Alistair Darling have defined the character of the worldwide rescue effort, with other wealthy nations playing catch-up,” he wrote.
I suppose if you're feeling slightly curmudgeonly and resistant to the idea of Brown the World Saviour, you might feel inclined to say it was, in fact, the Irish who should get the credit. It was their decision to guarantee all bank deposits that more or less forced the decision on Mr Brown to make his bold move.
But that would be unfair. It took imagination and courage to come up with the British Government's initiative, the sort of qualities that have been noticeably lacking among political leaders around the world in recent weeks. So well done, Gordon.
Of course, now the only question - a fairly important one - is whether or not it will work. Here, it is important to distinguish between the two distinct but interrelated aspects of the continuing crisis.
The first, most pressing task is to get the financial system back to some sort of normality. This is what the British-led rescue has at least a good chance of achieving. The government-led recapitalisation of the banks ought at least to reassure investors and lenders that they are not going to lose their money if they park it in a financial institution for more than 12 hours.
Perhaps more important, the official guarantee of interbank lending ought to remove remaining doubts about the rest of the financial system.
But the second aspect of the problem is probably - if this can be comprehended - even larger now. Even if the panicky stress in the financial system can be gradually overcome in the next few weeks, the bigger problem is that we are in one of those dangerous moments when banks simply don't want to lend to customers.
This is not because they necessarily think they won't get their money back. It is simply because they are beginning a huge process of de-leveraging. That's just a fancy way of saying that they are intent on making themselves a lot smaller.
They are shrinking their assets almost irrespective of the quality of potential borrowers and investors. In the United States today there are proliferating stories about customers with impeccable credit ratings unable to get a loan from a bank to expand a business or build a house.
If we do manage to get the interbank system working again, this is the next challenge: how do you persuade banks to lend in these circumstances?
Government can shore up the capital bases of banks and it can reassure nervous investors that they will get their money out of the financial system, but it cannot force banks to take on risks that they do not want.
If we do not address this problem urgently, we are heading for more misery. Everybody keeps talking optimistically about how stock markets must now be oversold, that valuations are at absurd lows. All that may be true.
There may be money to be made out there, but this stage of the business cycle - the start of a probably nasty recession - is not a time that investors traditionally dive in. They know that the next few years will see some companies collapse completely, even as others survive and prosper, and they don't want to take the chance of betting on the wrong ones.
So the next steps of governments must be to engineer a huge injection of demand into the economy. Banks cannot be forced to lend, but over time they will see money to be made when there is more cash in the pockets of consumers and businesses.
That means more interest rate cuts, but, perhaps more importantly, the mother of all fiscal stimuli. Governments should throw caution to the wind and launch big tax cuts and hefty spending increases.
Get ready for a trillion-dollar US budget deficit. American politicians will be as reluctant to do this as they were to save their banks, but they will get there eventually. They will have Gordon Brown to show them the way again.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£23,093 - £56,211
The Office for National Statistics
Newport, South Wales
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
To all those who say that this is all Gordon's fault in the first place: if that's true then why on earth would virtually every other country follow GB's lead in this crisis? It proves that this is not a UK phenomenon - and its just petty to try to pretend that it is. Well done Gordon, I say!
Mark Herriot, Lancaster, UK
To praise Gordon Brown for technical prowess overlooks the fact that he has guided UK economic policy for the last ten years. What has he been doing for the last ten years on the bridge of the ship of state that made him unable to see the rocks ahead?
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines
If the Americans & British had listened to Angela Merkel two years ago maybe some or all of this mess might have been avoided.
joe gaffney, portarlington, ireland
This idea was invented by Sweden in the early 1990's.Hence its not original.
The result to date is the Tax payer in Sweden is still losing out.
C.Frank, London, England
"That means more interest rate cuts, but, perhaps more importantly, the mother of all fiscal stimuli. "
Ho ho, fix one vast collapsing easy-credit-induced-bubble by repeating, yet again, the very actions that caused the bubble to inflate in the first place.
Alan Greenspan would be proud of you!
James Brooks, Singapore,
LOLOLOL! thanks for the joke of the day Gerry!
Adam Smith, Shanghai,
Inflation goes to 5.2 and the Pound is losing value at an alarming rate and you suggest tax cuts and lower interest rates? My god! We better get some Euros and Dollars before our hard earned pounds get valued as much as toilet paper!
Ivan Bukov, Newcastle,
Commercial banks in the UK used to be restricted to 12-times leverage - some now have 30-time, even 60-times leverage - the limits were removed in 2004 - Chancellor at the time that ever so Prudent Mr Brown - so don't tell me he doesn't share some of the blame for the folly of the last 10 years.
Huw Sayer, London, England
Explain to me again why it would be unfair to pour lavish praise on the Irish Government for coming up with the idea first?
Andy, Cork,
Credit where it's due - in September, Royal London Asset Management's chief investment officer, Robert Talbut, said we needed a rescue plan based on bank recapitalisation and a cut in rates - It only took Gordon Brown six weeks to pretend it was his idea.
Huw Sayer, London, England
Double national debt, and decrease taxes? Fiscal illiteracty.
Is this where GB gets his ideas?
Real taxation (hidden and direct) in UK is already at near unsustainable levels circa 60% - tax cuts are needed but doubling national debt sort of renders that impractical neh?
Thos, Aberdeen, Scotland
The Republicans threw out the first Bush plan THREE WEEKS BEFORE Brown came up with the idea for the UK, when they would not bail out the banks without equity in exchange
Had Brown not sold our gold reserves at the bottom of the market, he would not have to hit taxpayers for the bail out money
jIM lAFLIN, Bicknoller,
Don't be fooled.
Gordon Brown's view is that there is no price too high for the British Taxpayer to meet in order to save his premiership from being the unmittigated distaster that it actually is.
Steve Douglas, Wimborne, U.K.
U.K. bank rate 4.5%, inflation 5.2%......Why should savers receive less return than inflation? Like other "experts", G.B. you forget that it is savers that underpin the banks and government lendings.
Robert, North Wales,
Surely Thatcher must take the blame for most of the problems. She deregulated the markets, encouraged greed amoung bankers and created the culture where everybody must own a home even if it means borrowing more then is sensible. While Brown did nothing to stop this excess it was not his creation.
Frank, Aberdeen, uk
Now that not only British financial systems look like those of China, British's columnist looks like that of China too - I am surprised to read this bold flattering as a guy coming from China - it just looks so familiar. :-)
Well, as long as it works now and for the long term, I am fine with it.
Zhong, London, UK
I'm not a fan of Gerard Baker or Gordon Brown, but I commend the first for his honesty and hope the second has done something right for a change.
The current crisis is a game-changer and Cameron/Osborne's recent criticism is as ill-judged as Heffer's ludicrous DT rants.
Chris Smith, chesterfield, uk
The Global Recession, like the War of Lies, originated in the U.S. and the solution will have to emerge from the U.S. It really is silly to heap praise on anyone at this moment, it's far too early, proof of pudding, etc, etc.
joe reilly, spalding, England
The Global Recession, like the War of Lies, originated in the U.S. and the solution will have to emerge from the U.S. It really is silly to heap praise on anyone at this moment, it's far too early, proof of pudding, etc, etc.
joe reilly, spalding, England
I concur absolutely with Niall Orr,Sydney,Australia but
then most of the scribblers in the UK press do not have a clue.Thank goodnes there is one person in the press with the knowledge/expertise willing to tell the truth.
Some people disagree with GB article but they are biased in the extreme!
Dennis Daly, London, England
Paris Hilton makes more sense than Gordon Brown She asks why interest aren't reduced so that people can afford to pay their mortgages. Out of the mouths of babes?
oldandbold, lincoln, england
Gordon Brown reminds of a murderer revisiting the scene of his crimes and inveigling himself into the investigation with helpful hints and smiling for the camera. He is still guilty of the crime of getting us into this mess.
Janet Brown, manchester, england
Gordon is leaving some of us wallowing in distress. When I left for Japan, I had to move my savings to offshore banks. Although I am British, the UK government does not allow me to have a bank account in the UK. Kaupthing (Isle of Man) went bust last week, taking my savings with them.
Steen Wallis, Maebashi, Japan
This is a wind up eh? You are having a larf! GB may be the toast of the world, but the rest of the world doesn't vote for him. Come the election he will be toast!
sophie smith, london, uk
The banks are critically short of capital, and Baker thinks interest rates should be CUT!
You couldn't make it up ... welcome to the Age of Financial Illiteracy.
Martin Clarke, Leicester, UK
as the useless architect of the financial mess ( devolving responsilbility for control of the money supply to 2 different bodies,
encouraging everyone to spend on credit , this raises VAT to new levels which can then be wasted on public NON-SERVICES.
whelan, skye, scotland
In summary Mr Baker, you are saying "God it's getting cold out here - let's throw more kerosene on our house fire to keep warm for a few more months - perhaps when spring comes all will be well, if we hope it is so."
Huw Sayer, London, England
I am sorry but you dont understand the situation. I have argued in this slot for quite some time. The banks needed a good old fashioned rights issue. It was so obvious. Paulson has tryed to avoid it to avoid dilution of shareholders. He now has no choice. Just basic corporate finance.
G Davies, Cardiff, Wales
Part of the problem has been the absurdity of banks lending up to 8 times annual income to finance house purchases. It will be unpleasant for many but house prices have to fall and then there should be a return to lending up to a maximum of 3 times income as it used to be.
john, Kouvola, Finland
The culture of unsustainable debt and unrestricted spending is entirely down to Brown. He deserves no credit at all. This mess is all his fault. If the Bank of England had not been restricted by Brown to only considering inflation then we would not have had such a credit bubble form. He is to blame!
Peter Farrington, Maidstone,
Get real - you don't have to support Gordon to support the plan - I doubt he had the imagination to come up with it (think we can attribute the idea to the Swedes, Warren Buffett and Mervyn King) - and let's not forget that Gordon's policies helped get us into this mess - so don't be so fawning!
Huw Sayer, London, England
I suppose Brown and Darling must get something right occasionally. But there are still many unanswered questions about how, under their leadership and with all the financial experts, advisors, regulators etc. at their disposal, we were allowed to get into such a state in the first place.
Chris K, Cheltenham, UK
I really think Gordon Brown showed a great understanding of the problems and determined leadership. In contrast the Paulson/Bush partnership really did look and sound out of their depth, though by following Gordons Plan it may flatter them in History. Who will come up with the recession 'fix'?
Billy, Bangkok, Thailand
Why don't we just abolish interest completely, all they do is make peoples lives unconfortable. Yes, governments should just give us the cash and we''ll stimulate the economy for them.
Alas, this how we got here in the first place so where do you think the next bubble will take us?
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart , Australia
Sir: Yes: "The first, most pressing task is to get the financial system back to some sort of normality. " However, normality in the banking system hasn't existed for at least a decade and a half. Normality = far lower prices for stocks. The 401k experiment has failed.
Peter Adam, Chevy Chase MD, USA
Extremely well said - people must get behind Brown, not criticise and blame him. He is striving to restore confidence, no one else is able to suggest an alternative approach to revive the financial system - yet they continue slam his plan
Niall Orr, Sydney, Australia