The old nag that trades as the Horserace Totalisator Board is about to fall at the first fence again. It is more than a decade since a privatisation of the Tote, the state-controlled betting company, was first mooted, and it has been heavy going ever since.

An early attempt to do a deal with the racing industry was blocked by the European Commission, which claimed that the knockdown price was tantamount to state aid.

Talks then started over a £400 million sale to the industry. Several hurdles later, a consortium led by the Racecourse Association and the Racehorse Owners Association came back last September with a £320 million offer.

That, too, stalled, and in March the Government appointed Goldman Sachs to come up with a new valuation with a view to holding an open auction. Gala Coral was initially installed as the front-runner, but as financial markets deteriorated, the hoped-for price tag of £400 million looked like a rank long shot.

Now I hear that Goldman has completed its analysis, and that its conclusions will make grim reading for the Chancellor. The bank is thought to have indicated that although a number of interested parties have access to finance, the business is likely to fetch no more than £200 million to £300 million.

Given conditions on financial markets, a price towards the bottom of that range looks the most likely outcome. A sum of £200 million is hardly going to transform the public finances. The nag looks like staying in the paddock for a few more years.

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