David Wighton: Business editor's commentary
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They are at it again, the moral hazard fundamentalists. Critics of the Paulson bailout plan insist that the banks must pay for having their toxic assets removed. Otherwise, the proposal “completely eviscerates the concept of moral hazard”, according to Henry Waxman, a leading Democratic congressman. This is because it would enrich the Wall Street executives whose reckless investments caused the financial crisis.
Having learnt the term, people tend to get a great deal too excited about moral hazard, the idea that by compensating people for the cost of their own reckless behaviour you encourage similar behaviour in the future. The US Federal Reserve was accused of ignoring moral hazard when it helped JPMorgan Chase to rescue Bear Stearns. As if arranging for shareholders to get $2 a share for stock with a book value of $80 would encourage reckless lending in future.
Last weekend, the Fed refused to support Lehman Brothers partly on the grounds of moral hazard. Once again, the risk of encouraging bad behaviour seemed pretty modest compared with the risk to the wider financial system. The collapse of Lehman turned out to be very damaging, accelerating the implosion of AIG and the panic over Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
As Charles Goodhart said in the FT this week, the time to worry about moral hazard is in the boom. Worrying about moral hazard now is like “refusing to sell fire insurance just after the Great Fire of London for fear of adversely affecting future behaviour”.
The concern about moral hazard also seems misplaced in relation to the Paulson plan. This is not because it is wrong to make people pay for their mistakes. It is right and proper. It is only wrong if other innocent people suffer from that desire for retribution (and, let’s be honest, when many people talk about moral hazard, they really mean retribution).
In the case of the Paulson bailout, it seems perfectly possible to make people pay for their mistakes without harming the broader financial system. It seems perfectly reasonable, as the critics suggest, that the Government should get some sort of stake in the banks that use the scheme so that the taxpayers — who will be shelling out $5,000 (£2,700) apiece — can benefit in the upside. It also seems perfectly reasonable that the Government should restrict the pay of executives at the banks that are being helped.
John McCain’s suggestion that no executive should be allowed to earn more than the US President — a mere $400,000 a year — hardly looks practical. That is roughly the average pay of Goldman Sachs’s 30,000 staff last year. A $400,000 cap would lead to an exodus of bank executives to other industries or other countries — even Bradford & Bingley could afford that. No great loss, you might say, given the record of US bank executives — but the more likely result would be that only the most desperate banks would take advantage of the scheme, limiting the benefit to the financial system.
The US authorities’ previous efforts to contain the fallout from the credit crunch have hardly been flawless and the sums of money involved in the Tarp (Troubled Asset Relief Program) are so huge that Congress is quite right to take some time to improve it.
Of course, there is a danger of delay as Congress seeks to hang irrelevant ornaments on to the Christmas tree, but the dangers in rushing something through without proper consideration seem greater. This Bill is important not just for the people paying for it, but for all of us.
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Sorry, I don't agree. Execs and shareholders need to see downside risk hereand the plan avoids that. A few execs leaving wouldn't be much cop - and I doubt they would - it's hardly like there's a booming market in $400,000+ jobs anywhere at the moment. This crisis is global.
Nikolai, London, UK
If you blame 'predatory lending' then that implies a flock of 'predatory lenders' yanking honest people off the streets to give them loans into houses they can't afford.
What people miss is how is it possible that millions of low/no income americans ended up buying homes.
Answer : their govt.
Ivan Lesko, Richmond,
At every stage of this crisis we we fox-trotted around our fundamental principles and were told that "the patient is too sick - no time to lecture on moral hazard". Yet, if we'd paid more consideration to this, the Ben & Hank Asset Mgt would not be holding congress to ransom for $700B within 7 days
JDA, HK,
A very weak article (author confuses reducing moral hazard with unrelated populist demands such as reducing CEO salary). US taxpayers have the right to request terms in exchange for the bailout they are funding- such as reducing the liklihood of predatory lending in the future.
Drew Atfield, Mt. Kisco, NY, US
We evolved as primitives, not really understanding numbers this huge. Some primitive tribes have numerical systems that go: 1-2-3-4 -many.
The total cost of this bailout is going to come to $7000 per man, woman, and child.
Washington DC needs LESS of our money, not more.
George Hanshaw, Seattle,
You are getting lost in a blizzard of words. If companies take the publics money, they are in effect declaring bankruptcy and bankruptcy rules should apply. When someone lends money to a bankrupt, the lender (the taxpayer) has first claim on the assets and the stockholders take the last position.
Bill Kistler, White Plains, NY, USA
America's financial institutions today hunt for a quick buck rather than creating real value in the economy. If future executives believe there's a govt safety net for greed - the next fallout will be far worse. We're already passing so much debt to the kids, do we really need to add moral hazard?
Melinda, San Francisco, USA
When Paulson says its good for economic growth and stability, he means its good for bank profit growth - he is out of touch with the wider economy and merely assumes if the banks are ok the rest of the economy will follow. But if the wider economy has to pump $700 bn into the banks every 10 yrs?...
Ben P., Robertsbridge, UK
Fools love the word "moral" so long as it applies to the bad morals of others and their good ones. Moral hazard has little to do with ethics and all to do with mechanism design. If rules and policies for derivatives marketeers like Fanny et al, are designed to encourage cheating people cheat.
Jim Carmine, Pittsburgh,
No Mr Goodhart! NOT worrying about moral hazard now is like giving fire insurance to a pyromaniac with a box of matches and three burning houses behind him! You have to get the pyromaniac back in his box and the fire put out - and only then do you look to insure people smoke alarms that work.
Huw Sayer, London, England
Harumph harumph. Oh yes, the epic S&L bailout of the late 1980s decisively prevented further bad lending behavior didn't it? I guess 'moral hazard' -- like 'personal responsibility' -- only applies to the common people, not to the invisible hand of Mr Market on Wall Street.
Scott S, Portland, Oregon, US
What's all this preening about moral hazard and
making sure the taxpayer gets their due when
this limp Congress is currently relieving itself of
$1 billion daily into the sands of Mesopotamia.
Paul McCloskey, Chicago,
refusing to sell fire insurance just after the Great Fire of London for fear of adversely affecting future behaviour
If you ever had insurance, you would know that you would probably be uninsured after such a fire... Interesting how the "free/unregulated financial system" would treat you isn't it
J, Glasgow, UK
If the Wall Street Execs think they are too good to accept $400,000 a year (plus unlimited expense accts and acccess to corporate jets), let them go - in this post-traumatic Wall Street, the number of potential employers is rather limited.
J. Ram Ray, Silver Spring, MD, USA
You overlook that it is the Managers of these banks- the masters of the Universe- who are over paid beyond avarice and over indulged but unreasonably get out without penalty.
Both the hapless Shareholders and Tax Payers have no control whatever but are unfairly penalised without limit.
S Yogarajah, Harrow, England
If John McCain really suggested 'that no executive should be allowed to earn more than the US President,' then, in practical terms, he's an idiot, and in philosophical and political terms, he's a Marxist and a communist!
Geoffrey Woollard, Cambridge, England
So now those of us who oppose the bailout of irresponsible bankers are deemed to be 'fundamentalists'. That must make up the majority of the population then.
Paul, Coventry,
For $700bn you could buy all of the banks involved and all their assets, or simply buy shares in good banks which had not thrown away money and keep the system up just fine.
Paulson is running a scam for his banker buddies to transfer the losses from them to the taxpayer.
David Martin, Bristol, UK