Gerard Baker: American view
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As I watched Hank Paulson last weekend, I was reminded of an old story about the Duke of Wellington.
Recalling in later years his first Cabinet meeting as prime minister, the Iron Duke is supposed to have expressed bewilderment: “I couldn't understand it,” he said. “I called them in, gave them their orders and they wanted to sit and discuss them.”
It might, I fear, be apocryphal, but like all such stories it still captures something essential - in this case, the imperiousness and bluff ingenuousness of the old Duke as he made the awkward transition from military genius to mere politician.
Mr Paulson is having a similarly jarring experience this week.
On Saturday he called in the leaders of Congress and presented them with their orders. They were to give him $700 billion of taxpayers' money (maybe more) so that he could fix the wreckage in the US financial system. He would spend the money exactly as he saw fit and his decisions would not be open to either political or judicial review.
Oh, and one other thing: he needed the money by Friday.
Imagine his horror, when, just like the old Duke, he had to listen as his interlocutors told him they might want to think about this for a while.
Despite a steadily rising chorus of dissent against the Paulson Plan, the betting in Washington is that the US Treasury Secretary will largely get his way. Critics are scrambling to come up with alternatives to resolve the mess, but Mr Paulson has time and chaos on his side.
It is unlikely that anyone will really have the time to come up with another, evidently better plan by Friday and the positive reaction of financial markets even to the hint of a rescue is holding members of Congress hostage only six weeks before they face the voters.
The best that Congress can hope for is to impose some small limitations and to extract some concessions from the Treasury between now and the end of the week.
On Wall Street, this is being treated with the usual disdain that bankers reserve for politicians. They're talking derisively about another congressional “Christmas Tree”, loaded with all kinds of ornaments for the benefit of their constituents.
Now I'm not usually one to side with politicians over business people, but this strikes me as a bit rich, coming from a bunch of geniuses who have spent the past ten years loading up their own Christmas trees and now want the US taxpayer to pay for them.
It's early days in the negotiating process, but here's what Congress seems likely to demand as the price of its agreement to the bailout plan.
There will surely have to be a little more political oversight of the Treasury's purchases of the toxic waste in banks' balance sheets than is envisaged.
No one I've spoken to in Washington in the past few days thinks that the Treasury Secretary and his successors should be given the kind of financial authority that would have made King George III blush back at the time of the Boston Tea Party.
They're going to insist on some sort of protection for taxpayers, at least in the form of detailed reporting requirements from Treasury to Capitol Hill.
There's also a good chance that the final bill will have to include some support directly for those homeowners facing foreclosure. This seems to me a political necessity.
The Paulson Plan is not going to be popular out in the country when people realise that it is going to cost them upwards of $5,000 per family. Assuaging that anger is going to mean sending money to the needy, too.
Democrats may also get their way in demanding some kind of limit on remuneration for the executives of those financial institutions in receipt of the government largesse.
The really big question, however, is how far Congress wants to get involved in the details of how the toxic asset purchase plan operates.
There's already been loud complaining that non-US financial institutions will benefit. Will British banks such as HSBC find themselves being propped up by the US taxpayer?
Treasury officials made clear yesterday that they think the qualification should be a substantial presence in the American market, which would surely include the big British and European banks. Members of Congress from places such as New Jersey and Illinois may well be reluctant to appear to be agreeing to send the many employees of European banks in their districts to their fate.
But they are heavily outnumbered by members of Congress with no foreign banks and lots of angry Americans in their constituencies.
The principal uncertainty, though, is how exactly the Treasury will buy the asset-backed securities that are at the heart of the scheme. If it pays a current market price for those assets, it is not clear that it will help undercapitalised banks much, since it is the present valuations that are doing so much damage to their capital. If it buys at well above the market rates, it will help banks with their capital but at what could be an even higher cost for the taxpayer.
Some congressional staff members who have been involved in the discussions say Mr Paulson is making it clear in private to the politicians that the Government expects to pay above the current market prices. Officials insist that, over time, as the immediate panic fades, the prices of these assets will rise, reducing the cost to the taxpayer.
No wonder that, like Wellington's sceptical Cabinet members, the politicians want to hear a bit more about this plan before they salute.
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The Time magazine piece on how socialist America has actually become, all due to corporate greed, is brilliant:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1843168,00.html
All the conservative fear mongering about liberals creating a socialist society have to look in the mirror for the culprit.
Juan, Seattle, USA
Why don't all the banks offer incentives for people to overpay their mortgages/loans eg for every extra £1 or $1 that is overpaid the bank matches it with an amount eg 5% in the pound/dollar. It's a win win situation all round if you think about it.
John, London, England
This plus the Patriot Act(and it's abolition of habeas corpus) is the end of the USA as a republic. If an appointed official can spend a trillion without oversight then it's an Empire.
Congress will still be there - the Caesars retained the forms of Senatorial procedure - but to little real effect
Simon David, London,
Congress should be careful. Paulson's plan is also a bail out for his old mates. The US Govt is the only buyer in town. Why should the tax payer have to buy above current market? Buy at market today (or at discount), then that sets the market price, banks then can begin the necessary write-offs.
Jim Tsihlis, London,
1) Is Paulson Washington's man in Wall St or Wall Street's man in Washington?
2) If Wall St needs 700 billion in new capital then why not a rights issue? Issue shares to the Federal government, and let
the taxpayer get a cut of the upside. And a vote on executive remuneration.
Simon David, London,
House prices are approx double reality - the taxpayers could lose $350 billion of the $700 billion. Exec remuneration? A Congressman earns $169,300, the Vice-President earns $221,100? Criminals sometimes also do community service. What are the execs offerring in return for bailing out incompetence?
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
I think anyone who supports this plan will be voted out of office and rightly so. Bankers caused the mess, bankers should fix the mess not the taxpayers. Remember the headlines about the huge bankers bonuses?
Gene, Gebüg, Germany
The author of this column may be right, but I believe if the US gives this money to the Treasury Secretary with no limitations whatsoever (if it could make such an agreement legally, which I certainly doubt) it would cease to exist as a republic.
VA, Vancouver , Canada
you are reading this situation through parameters set by the Bush Administration. It may be the rising tide of discontent with this bailout you describe will make Americans vote AGAINST those members of Congress who support this outrageous plan.
va, Vancouver, Canada
And those up fore re-election are far more hostages to their beyond angry consitutents who see Wall St with its salaries in the 7 - 8 fiugre range swanning around in luxry while they get stuck with the bill, Never under-estimated angry voters. More of them than there are Wall St bankers.
Ann Scott, Empire MI, USA
what about the millions that paulson has in stock value at his old firm? why is no one talking about it?
nina, greensboro, usa
I am reminded of another old story, or mythology, that of Pandoras jar ( not box). What was it that was let out , and what was it that was left in the bottom of the jar?
ed pefferman, issaquah, usa
The usual American solution to most problems is to throw money at it in the hope for a quick fix. Why would anyone want to pour money into a system that is faulty. Fixing the system should be the first priority. It is time for urgent system change of the financial systems.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Abe Lincoln, a tall man, was introduced to Harriet Stowe, author of Uncle Tom's Cabin, a short woman, who reached to about his waist, and he said
"So you're the little lady that started this great big war."
I wonder if we shall ever see her like again?
glenn schaefer, holbrook, ny/usa