If fortune favours the brave, the two top Americans in British banking could make a great deal of money for their shareholders.

Bob Diamond, the head of Barclays Capital, has pulled off a remarkable coup, buying Lehman Brothers’ US capital markets business for next to nothing.

Now Eric Daniels, chief executive of Lloyds TSB, is paying a bargain-basement price for HBOS and getting a commanding position in the UK banking market that would never have been possible in normal circumstances.

Barclays shareholders have reacted fairly positively, in spite of the obvious risks of expanding into investment banking just now. In contrast, Lloyds TSB’s investors could focus only on the wobbly teeth in the gift horse’s mouth. Lloyds TSB is getting HBOS for about half its book value but the shares tumbled 15 per cent.

Once the credit crisis eases, the potential returns to shareholders will be handsome. The combined group will have a mouthwatering concentration of power in the market and Royal Bank of Scotland’s takeover of NatWest has shown the scope for cost-cutting when putting two big banks together.

Of course, there is significant execution risk. Not all bank mergers have gone as smoothly as RBS/NatWest. Moreover, RBS had the benefit of cutting jobs during a boom. With unemployment rising, Lloyds TSB would have to tread more gently, even without the commitment to save as many Scottish jobs as possible, which was outrageously extracted from Lloyds by a Scottish Prime Minister and a Scottish Chancellor facing a very tricky Scottish by-election. What about jobs in Halifax?

Those potential long-term returns to shareholders have been bought at the price of a significant increase in the risk profile of the group. And that at a time when risky banks are getting punished ferociously. The ban on short-selling announced by the Financial Services Authority last night means that Lloyds TSB will not be the next bank to come under fire from hedge funds.

But there are plenty of traditional shareholders who have doubts about the wisdom of making such a big bet on UK property lending.

It also increases Lloyds TSB’s reliance on the very difficult wholesale funding markets, a fact not lost on the rating agencies.

For many investors who held Lloyds TSB shares because of their huge yield, their biggest concern may be that after holding firm for years the bank is finally going to cut the dividend. Analysts estimate that next year’s dividends will reduce the yield from 13 per cent to about 7 per cent.

That is the price shareholders pay for a bit more potential excitement. Some may regret that Mr Daniels is being quite so brave.

david.wighton@thetimes.co.uk

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