Valentine Low: Commentary
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Some time between the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the US Government’s bailout of AIG I began asking myself: where’s Professor Stephen Hawking when you need him?
Last week, when the opening of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN had the more excitable among us wondering if we were all about to disappear into a large black hole, the Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge was a very useful fellow to have around, patiently explaining that the black holes were only very small and that we really shouldn’t worry ourselves.
This week we face being destroyed by another black hole. The global financial crisis is swallowing up banks, insurance giants, pensions and a host of financial instruments that I wouldn’t recognise if they popped up on the next desk, and all I want is for some reassuring boffin to explain what’s going on and tell us that it’s all going to be all right.
It is one thing having a crisis; quite another having a crisis when you don’t have the foggiest idea what it’s all about. Last week set the bar for perplexing news stories: even the more scientifically literate among us (I’ve got physics O level, you know) developed a dull headache as we tried to grapple with proton beams, dark matter and, of course, the Higgs boson. Now, just as we have got over that one, along comes the impending collapse of the world’s banking system. It certainly matches the CERN story for brain-numbing complexity. What is short-selling? Who thought it was a good idea to give mortgages to people who were never going to pay them back? And if Lehman has lost billions of dollars, where has the money gone?
The more I understand, the more I realise I don’t understand. Take securitisation, for instance. I looked it up: apparently it’s when you package up a whole number of mortgages, then sell the debt to someone else. Why would anyone want to do that?
There are crucial difference between the Large Hadron Collider and the banking crisis. They are both the province of people who speak a language that no one else understands. But in the case of the CERN brigade, we don’t hate them. We don’t hate them because they don’t spend their bonuses on a second Maserati, we don’t hate them because they don’t go round exuding insufferable superiority, and most of all we don’t hate them because they haven’t brought about the collapse of the whole tottering edifice by their own greed.
The other difference is that while both phenomena are immensely important, the financial meltdown has an immediacy that CERN could never manage. If all those scientists discover the secrets of the big bang, or work out the fundamental nature of matter, well I dare say we would all be the better off for it. But my pension is going up in smoke, the few shares I own are worthless and thousands of people are wondering whether they will have a job next week.
I wish I knew why.
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Woa there, why are you dragging scientists into this, they weren't involved in the credit crunch at all? You'd be better off blaming the engineers surely they should have seen this great big pile of debt collapsing!
Luke, Kingston, uk
The problem is simple: Congress demanded loans be given to those who cannot repay. Those loans (aka "subprime") were bundled and resold into mortage-backed securities, infecting the entire system. Energy crunch = increase in forclosures. That resulted in housing price deflation. System go bust.
mike, Dallas, USA
This kind of thing happens from time to time. It's happened many times before and it will happen again. It does not foretell the end of the world and the only alternative to the business cycle is universal poverty.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Ultimately no one listens to the intelligent. Humans are dumb and blunder around from one mistake to the other. Their entire history is a disgrace of lies, deceit, self delusion and greed. They deserve the hell they build. The intelligent just need to survive, breed and avoid the majority.
keith b, Wigan, uk
Google for "honest money", and learn the interesting facts about inflation. Governments, bankers and speculators have this in common: they all want more of our money, quicker. Governments and banks inflated the currency, first by abandoning gold, then by creating a credit balloon. It just popped.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Easy...American's capitalism and generating fake wealth (stocks)! The money was never there and they lend people real money.
Gavin, Birmingham, UK
The individuals who created the crisis are being lavishly rewarded. They have bailed out with huge golden parachutes. They are not incompetent. They are merely focused on their own individual gain at our expense. It was profitable and low risk for them to destroy Wall Street and so they did.
John Galt, Kent, USA
What I don't understand is why the speculators who forced HBOS to merge are not being targeted by the FSA? Along with those who are trying to bring down Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs?
Melanie, London,
You couldn't have this more wrong. The whiz-kids behind derivatives and securitisation all have PhDs in maths. Don't think 'boffins' benignly explaining the mysteries of high finance for the public good; think nuclear scientists explaining the shape of the mushroom cloud. They made this possible.
Scott, Stirling,
There has been a failure of common sense since the 1980's in the government and financial sector, the failure started to be apparent as early as the 1970's, when the traditional role of banks became one of an industry with products, and real industry was cash starved.
Dave, Chorley,
I, unfortunately, do understand the language in play here. And I truly wish I did not. In this case, knowing 'why' only leaves you feeling helpless and very very angry. The short answer to 'why' is overweening arrogance, greed, avarice and hubris by those who had an enormous amount & wanted more.
Ann, Empire, USA
The simple answer is that since Friedman, many academic economists have become apologists for capitalism. They are often more interested formal models than empirical truth. The sociology of finance has more to say about the nature of money, credit and the creation of market value than economics.
Peter Thompson, Auckland, NZ