David Wighton: Business editor's commentary
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In a few months' time we may look back at Sunday's decision by the US Government to take control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and see it as the beginning of the end of the credit crunch. We may - but there are many other clouds hanging over the markets that will have to clear before the financial weather improves.
In the United States, the bailout of the terrible twins will bring some immediate relief in the blighted mortgage market. So far this year, the pair have accounted for almost three quarters of new home loans in the US.
Even though the US Government had made clear that it would stand behind Fannie and Freddie, the rate at which they could borrow had been rising. This, in turn, had pushed up mortgage rates.
The Government's move had an immediate impact on US mortgage rates yesterday and it should bring forward the point at which American house prices stop falling.
Because the debt that Fannie and Freddie issue and the mortgage-backed securities that they guarantee are so widely held around the world, their failure would have had a disastrous impact on the world financial system.
The removal of that possibility produced wild swings in financial markets yesterday. These included a 3 per cent surge in the Korean currency amid relief that the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, a large portion of which are held in Fannie and Freddie bonds, were secure.
Some British banks, such as RBS and Barclays, are also big holders of Fannie and Freddie debt and will benefit directly from the bailout. To the extent that the move helps to stabilise the US housing market, it will also boost British banks' other US mortgage-related holdings.
All of which should encourage the banks to lend to customers and to each other. The move could also hasten the return of US institutions, which had been a key source of wholesale funding to British lenders.
The early market reaction was not particularly encouraging, however. While bank share prices jumped, the cost of interbank borrowing hardly moved. And while a number of banks and building socities cut their mortgage rates yesterday, that had nothing to do with the bailout and merely reflected an earlier reduction in market interest rates.
The problem is that while the bailout is good news for bank balance sheets, the worry now is more what impact the slowing economy will have.
Some analysts are predicting already that leading banks will be forced to raise more capital to cope with bad loans resulting from the downturn.
The market reaction to the bailout yesterday rather overshadowed good news on inflation that could prove just as important. The sharp decline in producer prices between July and August boosted hopes that the Bank of England will feel able to cut interest rates before the end of the year.
The bailout may also have another indirect impact on the banks by increasing pressure on the UK Government to take bold action.
Bankers said yesterday that they hoped that it would convince Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, that the Bank of England's special liquidity scheme for UK lenders should be extended beyond October, and possibly expanded. If Sunday is to prove a turning point, the UK authorities will now have to do their bit.
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"Let foreigners take a bath." - is an amusing statement. 2 weeks ago foreigners stopped buying Fannie's junk and wouldn't even go near Freddie; that is why both corrupt enterprises are gone - their debts to be paid by US taxpayers - present and future.
dhome, sydney, australia
Many US posters dont seem to understand that as the rest of the world has lent the US, 54 per cent of their savings and they expect to be repaid. By this generation or the next two, three generations that is irrelevant. Instead of blaming foreigners have a look at your crony capitalism.
dhome, sydney, australia
The object of this bailout is political, not financial primarily. The Iraq and Afganistan wars are financed by foreigners investing in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds. Both candidates for President want to continue the fight in Afganistan, and probably expand it to Iran.
Terry, Denver, USA
Heard on the radio last night that Fannie and Freddy gave $20m per year as campaign donations to Washington politicians, particularly in Congress. Can there be a better example of corruption?
Peter, Liverpool, UK
Bill in Iowa city says "Let foreigners take a bath.". Foreigners own the US through stocks, government and mortgage bond purchases, If you tell them they aren't going to get paid, then you'll never get any money from them to fund the Iraq War, earmarks, new investments. Asia owns the US, get real.
John Small, Faversham, UK
At least the US takes bold actions and doesn't wait for reports before doing anything.
Regulators now need to force the banks to reveal all their losses and recapitalise. Then we can end the crunch and move on (with massive changes to the regulatory framework, including accounting standards).
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
Neither the British government nor the BoE should follow this lead. If I were a US taxpayer, like Bill in Iowa, I would be furious as he and all US taxpayers have every right to be.
Paul, Coventry,
Just papering over the cracks again!
Won't help in the long run, mark my words!
Graham, Littlehampton,
Its enough to turn your hair grey. This is evolution, just leave it alone to market forces.
Gary Heron, London, England
Dar Bill of Iowa, leaving freddie and fannie to fail would have hit foreigners hard, but would have killed America. You would have a depression on the scale of the 1930. You are caught between a rock and a hard place on this.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
For 'bankers' to be telling anyone what to do given their total incompetance to manage save collecting bonuses that have cost everyone dear, is a total joke. Until there is a clear out at the top of literally every bank and a fresh start this will be a load of good money chasing bad.
Robert Marshall, LONDON, UK
Fannier and Freddie bonds were already trading at around par, reflecting the implicit guarantee already provided by the institutions' quasi-governmental status. How will making that guarantee explicit mark a major change?
Ian Stuart, Frederick, USA
Could the reason there has been no clear out of 'senior bankers' be simply because they are all in the same masonic lodge? Our country has become a joke and the behaviour of our banks an outrage to economics and prudent management . Nice one GB what one will you be joining?
Robert Marshall, LONDON, UK
I suppose, since you made no mention of them, that American taxpayers will not have to foot the bill for this bail out of the overpaid cockroaches of the banking world. That being the case, perhaps you would like to tell us who IS going to pay for it all.
Steve, Sutton,
Is this the end of capitalism as we know it?
Seems that way to me when America chooses to chase bad money with good. I expect nothing different from the lunatics who run the British economy but, America...........I though I had seen it all at my age.
Victor M, Cricklewood, England
Well, ordinary american citizen have been dommed by insane credit and now , ordinary citizen have to pay to save the ones who doomed them : that's quite funny.
gustavo, paris, france
I simply do not understand this. As an American taxpayer why should I bail out companies I never invested in in the first place. You wrote: "Because the debt that Fannie and Freddie that they guarantee are so widely held around the world, their failure would"--would what? Let foreigners take a bath.
Bill, Iowa City, USA
Why will this see the end of the credit crunch, its easy credit that has led to the US TAX PAYERs having to pay nearly $200000000000 to bail out poor judgement, ultimately the only answer to stop it happening againg is to tighten credit requirements - Thats what the credit crunch is surely?
Peter, Aldershot, UK