Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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If the exchange rate is the measure of a nation's economic virility, then Britain is the skinny kid getting sand kicked in his face.
Sterling has taken a severe beating in the past few weeks as international investors and currency speculators dump pounds in preference for dollars and euros.
Sterling hit a 12-year low yesterday against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, though it later enjoyed a brief respite after US jobs figures showed the American economy wasn't such a muscle-bound specimen either.
Against the euro, the pound is at its weakest since the single currency was launched almost ten years ago. A euro now costs almost 82p and that's in the wholesale markets.
Britons heading for an autumn break on the Continent or planning a skiing holiday are learning the retail cost of a euro is an alpine 85p. Those fleeting months when a pound bought two bucks are over. The pound now buys $1.77 in wholesale markets and $1.68 on the high street.
This of course matters. Not since Harold Wilson insulted the meanest intelligence by claiming the 1967 devaluation of sterling made no difference to “the pound in your pocket” has anyone tried to suggest otherwise. Britain as a nation is poorer. Everything imported becomes more expensive. Remittances out of the UK shrink.
But Britain's dirty little secret is that we rather like a depreciating currency. We got addicted to it for long periods during the postwar years, preferring to see the currency slide rather than make the painful efficiency and structural adjustments necessary to keep up with foreign competitors.
A sinking pound keeps exports competitive, keeps tourists flooding in and helps to boost British asset prices by making them more affordable to foreigners.
No wonder business is ambivalent about it. However, the timing and speed of sterling's slump has wrongfooted and disappointed even those who usually welcome a lurch lower in the currency.
The timing is awkward because it seriously limits the room for manoeuvre on interest rates. It's hard for the Bank of England to cut rates any time soon in the face of imported inflation. The reversal in raw material prices in the past two months is welcome, but the benefit has been partly diluted by the pound's collapse.
The speed of the decline is uncomfortable because it makes nonsense of business plans. All those sales targets and investment proposals based on a $1.90 pound or 75p euro are suddently scrap paper.
It's too early to call the bottom. Sterling is still 20 per cent higher than its low point in 1993, after its ejection from the exchange-rate mechanism, Alliance Bernstein points out.
Only a substantial further fall can rebalance the economy away from consumption and towards exports and investment, it argues.
More spatterings of sand seem all too possible.
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Yes, I agree. A strong pound is a disaster for the economy. A weak pound, on the other hand, encourages people to buy our products and services. It's not good news for expats - but they should be complaining at their native governments about the over-valued Euro, not the UK government.
Tony Smith, Rochester, UK
Andrea,
The UK imports over one third more than it exports - hence why it is sinking. This economic monetary imbalance will worsen as the Pound sinks further. This imbalance highlights why the UK 'is' the poor man of Europe as the treasure chest gets ever more empty.
Balance is everything!
Paulo, London, Canada
'We' like a depreciating currency, do 'we'? I don't, I'm disgusted with the BoE's deliberate Sterling devaluation, all to keep overpriced assets ridiculously high. If it continues there will be a flight of currency from these shores which will be disastrous.
Paul, Coventry,
Every article like this brings forth the UK retirees abroad, wanting a return to the days when Europe 'was cheap' on the pound. You went when the GBP was unnaturally strong and the EUR weak, now things are at a more realistic level. Unless you were smart and hedged in some way, get used to it!!!
Ryan G, Londres,
Heads you lose, tails you lose! If the BoE sit on their hands they risk allowing a devalued pound to exacerbate inflation - 1970s revisited. If they raise rates they will speed up the oncoming recession. Either way the UK is headed for much higher interest rates.
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Andrew, UK is among the 10 world top export countries and a weaker pound will be beneficial. I believe that the real fault of BOE is keeping the interest rate high, well above the western countries, over the past years. Now BOE cannot increase the % to strengthen the pound. Pound is dead.
andrea ceccanti, london,
Is n't the long term norm for the US dollar to be about 1.55 to the pound? So that would still make the pound rather over valued compared to the dollar.
The US and UK economies seem to be in a similar mess, so perhaps further adjustment is due.
Plus the USA will get to change its leader this fall.
Richard, Greensboro, USA
Hurray! It will all be over by Christmas! (2015)
Jenny, Liverpool,
Sterling has been an accident waiting to happen for years - overvalued to the detriment of what little manufacturing base we have - sadly when it does depreciate it is at the moment when inflation is high and it feeds that inflation. Capital flows are the key driver and could change tomorrow
Richard, Newton Abbot,
The MPC should've moved with the Fed at the end of last year and made preemptive cuts when the pound was at $2 and 1.40e instead of listening to over-optimistic business directors whose job is not to foresee the impact of credit melt-downs and thought the 'real' world was immune. Now they are stuck.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes,
Sterling has fallen in value because of the dawdling monetary policy committee of the BoE. Had they been more decisive and made interest rate cuts and averted some of the recent crises in the economy, then sterling contrarily would have stayed higher since confidence in UK economy would be higher
Mac, Manchester,
"Sterling is still 20 per cent higher than its low point in 1993, after its ejection from the exchange-rate mechanism, Alliance Bernstein points out."
- wrong. Sterling's effective exchange rate index is 88 currently against 83 in 1993. Five points difference only, not 20%.
j d hurley, hednesford, England
you must be joking,
crime, crowded, dirty, expensive, crap food, lousy transport, weather - going to Europe this month with my family to Italy and France and for the first time, missing friends in UK and especially Heathrow Terminal 4 - the Third World is better.
OldOzzie, Sydney, Australia
Why do you talk about the Sterling exchange rate as though it were something that happens to us? Two weeks ago there was coordinated Central Bank intervention to force the Dollar up. That means the fall in the Pound is the result of Central Bank action - including the BoE.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
"Makes exports cheaper." What exports? Even the invisible export of tourism: Reports of UK street crime and high prices will take the shine of that little earner. I wouldn't set foot in the place for a pension, so how do non-Brits feel? And talking of pension, ex-pats need to view NI catch-up payment requests with scepticism.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
Just as long as euro drops when recessions are realised then all us ex pats in europe who escaped the UK for a happier life and less expense can shout hurray as well. I wouldnt half mind my £100 extra rent back that i'm paying on 500 since sterling tumbled a year ago. PS: and the weather, scorchio
Lee Owen, Bucharest, Romania