Optimism in the current economic climate is a dangerous emotion, although it helps if the gas bill hasn't landed for a week or two. Yet there are signs that August or September could be the worst of the advertising downturn - although that does not mean that the pressure on media companies will be brief. It is a reminder that all cycles, good and bad, do eventually come to an end. But when?

Take ITV and Channel 4. The two are squabbling about how bad the downturn will be, but there is agreement that September is the worst for bookings. A fall of a fifth in the month could be moderated to a decline of between 5 and 10 per cent in November. Hardly a cause for celebration, but something of a recovery by the bombed-out standards of this month.

Look also at the reaction of the regional newspaper groups' share prices to Gordon Brown's decision to suspend stamp duty - Johnston, Trinity Mirror and DMGT all lifted markedly because anything that stimulates the property market is good for them.

Johnston said last week that property advertising was down 40per cent in July and the first three weeks of August. Any political focus on the housing market has to be positive for local papers. It may not restore buyers to the market in meaningful numbers but if it stabilises confidence, and at least ensures that the estate agents maintain some advertising, again there is an argument that somewhere around now is the point of greatest decline.

The problem with this thinking is that while it might apply to 2008, it won't wash into 2009. Recessions drag on, and Luke Johnson, Channel 4's chairman, cheerily predicts that next year will be the worst since the early 1990s.

As yet, joblessness has not soared but it is likely to and the sadly inevitable saga of repossessions has yet to play out. It is tempting to think that newspaper property advertising cannot tumble 40 per cent again, but there is little intellectual basis on which to pin this.

Estate agents are more likely to conclude that using databases is more efficient than newspapers. After all, they are being presented with an easy option with the impending launch of Property Live, which is so cheap that it is threatening to undercut Rightmove - the previous local newspaper killer.

No wonder then that Tim Bowdler, Johnston Press's chief executive, cautioned that the days of 30 per cent-plus margins are over for the foreseeable future and that even companies previously thought safe with their content-free databases - the Rightmoves, Auto Traders and the range of job websites, may not have as rosy a future as thought.

High street retailers and other companies that value the importance of Christmas are likely to stick with spending after the September hiatus. But there is little incentive to get the chequebook out during the chill of January, when consumers won't want to spend.

Expect, therefore, a second dip as 2009 begins, and as the comparatives ease, stability - though not recovery thereafter.

That means anybody who wants to make money from an upswing should start thinking now about investing next year. If the web 2.0 successes were built against the climate of the dot-com bust, foundations for media success will be built early next year. Not everybody, though, may be strong enough to take advantage.

— Informa's private equity stalkers did well to come up with a bid of £1.9 billion, showing that it is possible to find money for buyouts in this market. But everything else was pretty predictable: the bidders cut the price by more than £200million, or 11 per cent - and as a result the company that organises a string of worthy professional conferences and newsletters rejected it.

Whether Informa really has as recession-proof a future as it thinks is debatable, as companies trying to save money will surely cut back on newsletter subscriptions and on conference attendance. But what is also clear is that the money men are still struggling to lay their hands on the kind of cash that Manchester City's new owners are doubtless willing to spend on a new first team this Christmas. With banks having to look forward to writing off a lot of mortgage debts yet, the willingness to lend is unlikely to improve.

The prospects for a private equity-backed takeover of any media company appear pretty dim. It's not obvious that any board should roll over when faced with a bid at the bottom of the market.

All the talk is then that bids for Reed's magazines division are coming in low; it is possible that Sir Crispin Davis will not even get £1billion for the business and it may be wise for him to call the whole thing off. Private equity types might want to prepare for a long holiday. They'll be back, just not yet.

— Despite talk of a boom in live music, a string of London clubs have closed: The Cross, Turnmills, and now The End in Bloomsbury - sold, ironically, to property developers. Everybody has a club or bar favoured in younger years and when your own venue goes, it's enough to prompt a mid-life crisis.

dan.sabbagh@thetimes.co.uk

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