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The reason this is interesting now is that money GDP has taken a sharp downward lurch. Figures released a few days ago showed its growth rate in the second quarter had slumped to 4%, considerably weaker than its recent average. It may be telling us, more reliably than any forecast, that inflation worries are misplaced and the Bank could safely cut interest rates.

Those who have followed the monetary policy debate over the years will know money GDP has an honourable place in it. After the Tory government got into difficulty with money-supply targets, there was a campaign, led mainly by Samuel Brittan of the Financial Times, to use money GDP instead of those troublesome targets.

Pressure to switch to a money GDP target persisted, but went out of fashion after 1992 when the government successfully adopted an inflation target. I am not advocating a change in target, though money GDP, which combines inflation and growth, is worth looking at more closely.

So what of this week’s rate decision? The “shadow” MPC, which meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs, has given its verdict. Two of its members favour immediate action. Both Patrick Minford and Peter Warburton think there should be a half-point cut. Minford castigates the Bank for implying it is powerless in the face of recession and warns that politicians may conclude it is not “fit and proper” to run monetary policy. Warburton said current inflation was “spilt milk”. He wants a 1 to 1.5 percentage-point rate cut over three months.

Other shadow MPC members are less aggressive but five have a “bias to ease”. Tim Congdon, Gordon Pepper, Andrew Lilico, Ruth Lea and John Greenwood all believe the Bank should be thinking about lower rates, if not immediately. Pepper thinks the bias should be towards cutting rates “sharply”, while Lea would cut by half a point if the data continue to worsen. This leaves only Trevor Williams of Lloyds TSB and my near-namesake David B Smith who think the next move should be up.

The kind of debate on the actual MPC is similar, though probably less colourful than on its shadow. The Bank’s own forecasts imply “money” GDP will slow further as annual growth slows towards zero and inflation gets over its autumn hump.

This week’s MPC meeting is regarded in the City as a done deal, with no change expected. October, however, could be interesting. Not only should the path of inflation be clearer but on September 30 there will be a full, extensively revised, set of GDP statistics. The argument for delaying rate cuts could be looking very thin indeed.

PS: How, in hard times, is the skip index? Pretty good; the count in my street stands at two, suggesting normal growth, though I warn again about the “staying put” distortion — people who would have moved deciding to improve.

Let me tell you of a new hobby — spotting “credit crunch” in the oddest headlines. It was sparked off by one: “The royal recession: Queen hit by credit crunch”, a story with everything but a new twist to the Diana conspiracy.

Here is a selection from this month, starting with the straightforward: “Buskers are hit by credit crunch”, “Camp sites booming in the face of credit crunch” and “Less food being wasted thanks to credit crunch”. Then there is the women’s angle: “Our credit crunch wedding cost £597”. There was a column: “We’ve become a nation of credit crunch cry babies”. What about “Medieval living defies credit crunch” or “Credit crunch bitten by tooth fairy”? But for sheer optimism, salute the Daily Express: “Credit crunch will boost house prices”. Others gratefully received. I’ll offer a crunch-related book as a prize for the most bizarre.

david.smith@sunday-times.co.uk

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