Amanda Andrews: Media Analysis
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It is no secret that bad news fills more column inches than good news. This has certainly been true of the media sector in recent months: “Shares dive on ad slowdown”, “Newspaper group close to breaching banking covenants”, “Television audiences decline”. You get the idea.
Now is the time to put an end to the misery in the media sector. Take a deep breath and smile. It is not as bad as you think. Amid the flagging sentiment, aspects of traditional media groups are thriving and showing resilience despite the economic slowdown.
SMG, which has faced numerous hurdles in recent years - from overpaying for Virgin Radio to declining television audiences - seems to be getting its act together. Yes, it is modest in size, with a market capitalisation of only £86 million, as a weak advertising market has dragged its shares down by 77 per cent in the past year. However, management should get some credit for reducing net debt in the past 12 months by 90 per cent - from £189.4 million to £15.1 million - and focusing on the group's core business as a Scottish commercial broadcaster. Until recently the group was an incongruous mix of media businesses that included outdoor advertising, radio and television. However, the disposal of Virgin Radio and Primesight, the outdoor advertiser, has put SMG in position to enhance its presence in Scottish TV.
Then there is the radio sector, where advertising has been hit by declining audiences. There may not be as much transparency in the sector now that GCap is no longer listed, but leading media buyers reckon that radio spend could fall as much as 10 per cent this year.
However, despite the woes, talkSPORT, owned by UTV, is bucking the trend. The national AM station helped to offset a 4 per cent fall in television advertising at the Belfast-based broadcaster. Increased investment, including high-profile on-air appointments such as Ian Wright, have paid off, and the station has secured five big-brand sponsors for the 2008-09 football season.
The world of magazine publishing has also come under considerable pressure, with recent ABC figures showing massive declines in celebrity gossip and men's titles, from Heat to Nuts. Many may have sounded the death knell of the consumer magazine, although Future, the Bath-based specialist consumer publisher, is having one of its best years. In its third-quarter trading statement on July 28, Stevie Spring, the chief executive, announced that advertising revenue for Future's 180titles was up by 6 per cent. Circulation revenues were also up. Although its shares have slipped by 41 per cent in the past year because of sector weakness, the publisher of Total Film, Mountain Biking UK and the official PlayStation magazines has benefited from the popularity of new consoles, such as PS3, and consumers' preference for home entertainment as the credit crunch bites. After all, the last thing people will cut back on in a downturn is their favourite leisure pursuit.
Elsewhere in publishing, Pearson, the owner of the Financial Times, bucked a weak market last month and reported a 57 per cent increase in first-half pre-tax profits. The group, whose education business in the United States accounted for 63 per cent of sales last year, also looks set to reap the rewards of a likely increase in investment in education in America, particularly if Barack Obama wins the presidential election.
As many Britons have spent the wet summer indoors and short of cash, favoured entertainment meant cheaper leisure pursuits, such as gaming, watching DVDs and occasional trips to the cinema. The British Video Association, which monitors the home entertainment market, said that DVD sales rose by 3.3 per cent in the first half of this year, compared with the same period a year ago.
Similarly, Cineworld, the second-largest cinema chain in the UK, said that it was benefiting from the rising numbers of cash-strapped Britons holidaying at home and seeking low-cost diversions.
Then there are the market researchers and events businesses, the media's least-sexy companies. Despite their large market values, they have previously generated limited interest, lacking the showbiz factor found elsewhere. However, this has changed in recent months as these high-quality assets have been brought down by other media stocks and look cheaper than ever.
Despite deals drying up across sectors, there is considerable appetite for some media groups that do not depend on advertising. Consider Informa, the exhibitions group, whose conferences and events in Asia and other emerging markets are booming. It is the subject of private equity bid interest. Then there is Taylor Nelson Sofres, the subject of a bid by Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP, whose market research is more useful than ever as purse strings tighten. Supermarkets want to know the best way of competing with cheaper retailers, such as Aldi and Lidl, and consumer goods groups, such as Unilever, want to know which retailers are best suited for their products.
Although the consensus is that the advertising market will deteriorate markedly this year and into 2009, the media sector is not all doom and gloom.
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