Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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HBOS’s decision to shut a quarter of its estate agency branches speaks volumes about the housing market. Transactions are rare, lenders are cautious, prices are falling and there’s no sign of respite any time soon. Gordon Brown faces pressure from some quarters to do something about it and his advisers have hinted at a package of measures once he gets back from Beijing.
Whether he should intervene in the housing market, however, is a moot point. There is a strong case for letting market forces do their damnedest. At some stage, prices will fall far enough to flush out buyers and financiers and create a new equilibrium. The Government’s supposed goal of affordable housing is getting closer with every passing month. With food and heating costs soaring, there is surely some political capital to be gleaned from encouraging the cost of shelter to come down.
There is a problem, however. Falling house prices are souring consumer confidence. About £400 billion has already been wiped from residential property values in the past year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. Homeowners are feeling poorer.
With GDP growth revised downward to zero yesterday, Britain has come to an official economic standstill. Further falls in house prices could easily trigger a spending freeze, seriously exacerbating what is already going to be a painful slowdown.
There is one measure the Government could easily adopt that would put an immediate prop under the market. It requires legislation, but the legislation has already been drafted because Mr Brown came within a whisker of enacting it three years ago. Gathering dust, it could be resurrected within weeks.
It would be far more effective than the idea to temporarily scrap stamp duty and would help to win back the middle classes, the constituency whose support Mr Brown has so emphatically lost.
It is to allow residential property to be put in individual pension funds known as Sipps [self-invested personal pensions]. This was the policy Labour was keen to introduce as part of its laudable plan to boost pension saving. Then came the explosive and unconscionably late U-turn in December 2005.
No minister ever explained the change of heart. One theory was that the Government wobbled over the potential lost tax revenues – perhaps £4 billion a year. The more likely explanation was that ministers were worried they would be seen as putting property even further out of reach for first-time buyers.
If Mr Brown does want to see life return to the housing market, he should dust off that shelved plan. The economics of buy-to-let property owning would improve at a stroke, with property in Sipps free from income tax and capital gains tax. A change in the rules would help to unleash a rush of buyers and would also help to deter the thousands of existing buy-to-letters now considering selling.
The ban on Sipps investing in property is illiberal and irrational. Ministers and civil servants, insulated from the harsh workings of financial markets and inflation by their final salary pension schemes, do not have to worry. The vast majority of the working population - now paying into defined contribution schemes including Sipps - are entirely at the mercy of markets.
It cannot be right that they are excluded from a core asset class such as property, particularly since it is an asset class they (a) understand and (b) can manage themselves, saving themselves from the high fees of the fund management industry.
If Mr Brown wants to shore up the housing market, he could do a lot worse than execute a U-turn on his original U-turn. Before then, however, he has to grapple with a much harder dilemma, one that mainstream politicians have been ducking for decades: does he want high house prices or low ones?
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Yes what a good idea for people to use their (in most cases) entire pension fund to buy a property. I mean it provides no diversification, increases charges, stops first time buiyers getting on the ladder, can be hard to sell which limits the flexibility of pensions..yeah good idea
chris, Brighton, Sussex
Andrew Montgomery is wrong. We do not ALL want house prices to keep rising, however "steadily "as he puts it.
The housing market is over inflated and needs to correct ITSELF!
Patricia, Cheshire, Uk
How wise is it to invest your own money as a country in your own property when all the other countries invest in brands and businesses to succeed globally? How could buy to let help our economy?
Cos, london, uk
This really is a terrible suggestion. It should be obvious that we should be trying to ensure the nation's wealth goes into productive assets, not non-productive assets like property.
James Bingham, London,
Just to add - such a poor policy shouldn't need an MP to explain the change of heart, it beggars belief they could even dream it up in the first place.
Mike, Cheltenham,
Madness. Merely delays the time when next generation can afford to buy a house in UK
There are already too many market distortions. Why does a BTL get tax relief on interest and a FTB does not? Beats me
As for property as an asset class for pensions - agree but surely there are already funds?
Rob, bath,
SIPPS was a dreadful idea and was quite rightly dropped after lots of criticism. Giving rich property investors tax breaks to buy up houses when people cant afford a house to live in would be an absolute disgrace. Prices are still prohibitive, the market will move when prices are much more realistic
Mike, Cheltenham,
Stupid idea. We have a brain drain with young professionals emigrating to Australia, Canada etc because they can't afford to get on the property ladder. Also how can we compete with emerging economies when we have such high wages so that people can rent/buy a home. Let market forces work.
Jane, Sutton, UK
Another way to make buying a house cheaper for the investor than the owner occupier
neil, portadown, ni
Absolute nonsense! The housing market in the UK is artificially kept high by stringent planning laws. The quality and size of even the best new build houses in the UK is appalling when compared to continental homes, the construction industry is a laughing stock. That's why so many friends have left!
Jon Kingsbury, Southampton, UK
What a dreadful idea. Why should I subsidise some one else's business, leaving me with even less money to pay rent or the inflated purchase price on a property that such a subsidy helps sustain? The market should be allowed to find its true equilibrium, leading to cheaper housing for all.
M Johnson, London,
To allow BTLs into SIPPS would return us to Edwardian days when the poor had no choice but to rent from people who did no work for a living. It is an appalling suggestion.
Alexander Davidson, Crawley, UK
Great idea, you should be able to invest your property in SIPPS. However brown has no money as hes spent it all in the good years. Stamp duty should be raised to 5% for 2nd homes or BTL.
hee, Bath,
Buy to let was and is part of the problem - what we have is neo-feudalism, where those with land (half a dozen buy to lets) do no useful work while the peasants pay to rent and worse, pay the tax that provides housing benefit that subsidises more buy to let properties
Tom, Aldershot, UK
"400 billion has been wiped off property and home owners are feeling poorer"
so you are suggesting get house prices flying up so the poor people can release more equity that does not exist, to spend on our debt driven economy. i say no. let them CRASH.
d humphrey, bedford, uk
I think its safe to assume that they will make a mess of it whatever they try.They cant reflate the bubble and they don't want it to deflate completely.
Mitch, Wolverhampton, England
The government must not intervene in the housing market. They let it rise to this foolish level, so now they should let it fall. Giving reckless buy to letters unfair tax breaks will keep the value of houses unnaturally high, and first time buyers will never get on the impending property snake.
Martin Cousins, Salford,
I am a home owner and would rather the property market be left to market forces, with no goverment bodies or BOE interfering, OK if they drop 50% in value then there will be affordable housing for first time buyers with a good depsit saved up, no saved deposit should mean no mortgage. Less IH Tax?
Contax, Brigg,
What, chairman Brown would allow a cut in tax?
Pull the other one. Not part of his plan.
BTL saved at a stroke. Think it through. Modern BTL was based on asset value increase which is now in meltdown.
Now economic zero growth.
This is getting interesting.
Prices will plummet.
Np, England, UK
The underlying problem is the extreme leverage of debt which the average consumer has incurred in the last decade.
Ian, Madison, USA
Does he want high house prices or low ones? Neither - he wants house prices to rise constantly but slowly. This is what most of us want and indeed expect, that house prices should rise gently in line with inflation.
Andrew Montgomery, Oxford, UK
the trouble is that a lot of consumer confidence is credit based - people think they are rich if they can afford to service their debt every month after living costs are paid. Now those who have borrowed beyond their means are not running up debt on the high street suddenly we are in recession ?
fi, newcastle upon tyne , uk
Property in SIPPs. Sounds like stoking another property bubble rather than letting properties migrate to the mean of its inherent value. People need to save and not borrow to speculate.
I say leave the market do its damnedest and let the people wanting to be home owners have a fair go.
Andy, Cardiff,
Bang up the interest rates and make maximum mortgages
70% of value. That should stop them squandering money on cigarettes and booze and football matches. With a bit of care you can manage quite nicely on 50 pounds a week.
m wilson, bidache, france