Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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One of the curious trends of recent years has been the Western business community’s enduring love affair with the unlovely Russia. With every passing week, it becomes clearer that this is a country run by and for people little different from gangsters. The tanks rolling into Georgia have reminded us that they are gangsters with keys to a big arsenal.
The largest Western companies, Shell and BP included, have been bullied, intimidated and forced into concessions by the Kremlin and its cronies. This week a Moscow court joined in the harassment, targeting the head of BP’s troubled joint venture in Russia.
This is a country that defaulted on its overseas debts less than ten years ago; a country that, after its journey from feudalism to kleptocracy via totalitarian communism, has little truck with Western-style capitalism; a country alive with corruption and not averse, it has been suggested, to the occasional state-sponsored murder. Hardly the ideal recipient of Western capital, you might think.
But Western companies have rushed to throw money at Russia, both in direct and indirect investment. The push by City bankers into Moscow and St Petersburg is matched only by the flood of billionaire oligarchs taking money out. There’s perhaps a lesson there. I’d back the oligarchs to make the shrewder investment call.
The passion for Russia shows no sign of abating. Last week Merrill Lynch polled 200 fund managers responsible for $600 billion. Their favourite emerging market was Russia, ahead even of fashionable economies such as Thailand, Turkey and Brazil. Mark Mobius, the emerging markets guru at Templeton, went so far as to say yesterday that the Georgian invasion was “a minor event” and was Georgia’s fault anyway. He is as keen on Russian stocks as ever.
When the fighting in South Ossetia was at its height last week, one City analyst was raving about Russia’s spectacular growth. Had I seen the latest car sales figures? Sales were up 41 per cent, making it the biggest consumer of cars in Europe, ahead of Germany.
These are astonishing figures, it is true. And Russia’s tremendous reserves of gas and other commodities make it difficult to ignore. Companies can’t afford to be too fastidious about their business partners. But the idea that Russia can be seen as just another economy, and its businesses assessed purely in terms of dry p/e ratios, is folly.
There’s an echo of Robert Maxwell in the 1980s. Everyone agreed he was a monster, everyone heard rumours of his crookedness. And everyone, from Goldman Sachs downwards, was desperate to do business with him. Mr Maxwell had no scruples about betraying his shareholders and stealing from his pensioners. Western investors are mistaken if they think that Vladimir Putin would hesitate to expropriate their assets if it suited him.
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Business does not act on moral principles. Profits in Russia are very high and so are risks. BP earned 25% of the whole company's profit in Russia last year and that means huge tax contribution to Britain. So, it's a little bit more complicated, isn't it?
Yury, London,
Patrick Hosking,
Well done on bring this home...a timely wake up call.
I love the capitalist system, but it is this self-interested mechanism of pursuing our own profits that makes us blind.
We are giving capital & technology to anti-western forces - in return they are using this against us!
Jack Chad, READING, UK
Just got back from Iran. Guess who my 3 main competitors are : 1 a US company, 2 another US company, 3 yet another US company, ah at last 4, a Swiss company.
And the Us companies are price dumping there to get the market from their worst enemy !
E. Bee, Toulouse, France
Excellent article, sad as it may be. James, Pierre and Andrew you really have no idea....Having worked/lived in Russia and speaking the language and knowing many very nice Russian people the author is unfortunately spot on. Be happy you were born in the UK
peter, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
If Putin were to expropriate western assets we could do the same to his assets in the west, he is supposed to have a fortune(£40 billion+) squirrelled away in Swiss bank accounts.
Stephen, St. Ives, England
S Ossetia is a sovereign part of Georgia in the same way that N. Ireland is part of the UK. There was very little difference between Georgian troops moving in there to keep the peace and British troops going into NI to do so. There is no denying the Russian aggression and deceit. Let's get it right
Tom, Bedfordshire, UK
To be fair Georgia is no model democracy ; May's election was described as flawed by foreign observers. Moreover the recent conflict apparently started when Georgia used artillery against civilians in South Ossetia. However Georgia's errors don't make Russia a good business bet. Expediency rules.
Jonathan, London,
Regan just mentioned Star Wars and the USSR collapsed. The USA has the answer to Russia. Build sun powered energy generators and give up using oil and gas. A solar-powered mirror in space could be used to reflect the suns rays and burn any city it chose. Hitler was working on that.
albert hall, hove, england
Unlike you guys James, Pierre and Andrew, I am in Russia. And believe wouldn't be so sceptic about the article if you were in my shoes, "being in Russia".
Kostya, Moscow, Russia
Investments in Russia are presumably lining up to qualify as the next 'sub-prime' and with the usual expectation of a taxpayer bail-out? Speaking of which WHERE is Buggins and Prime-Minister-Would-Be?
m collins, Leeds,
Unlike the US, which isn't run by and for people little different to gansters, but by nice bankers and neo-cons who have brought the global economy to its knees, sold worthless bits of paper to pension funds, lie about inflation and growth, spend money they don't have, and invade and bomb at will.
James Smith, Manchester, UK
Of course, there are neither lies nor corruption in the UK ...
Pierre , London, UK
Hmmmmm, I thought that Georgia had invaded South Ossetia?
Either way at least the Russians have been up front about their activity, no feeble excuses about weapons of mass destruction and I doubt they'd be as subtle in rewarding complient prime ministers with bribes as America and Blair were
Andrew W, Heswall,
I don't know why you find this so astonishing. US companies continued to trade with Nazi Germany right up until Pearl Harbour.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA