Occasionally it is possible to wonder how life would have been different had it not been for that drink after work or the decision to go on that particular blind date.

Sometimes a small decision begins a chain of events that can have consequences, say 40 weeks later, that can lead to musings on what might have been. Most of the time such reflections are of little help in life, but sometimes the contrast they draw can be illuminating.

Towards the end of Charles Allen’s tenure at ITV, the commercial broadcaster faced two bids — the first from Greg Dyke and his venture capital friends, and the second from the American money men who steer the cable company Virgin Media from behind the scenes. Both failed — Dyke’s was rejected by the board, and Virgin Media, battling against hostility from ITV, was then outflanked by BSkyB.

Had either succeeded, how might they have fared?

Greg Dyke’s bid had all the excitement, the big-name battle with Allen, the barbarians at the gate, and precious little detail. There were hints of cost-cutting and a more efficient on-screen schedule. But would DykeTV have been more popular with the public than the Michael Grade show? Probably not. Could he have saved a lot of money on-screen? Perhaps.

One thing, though, was clear: ITV would have been loaded up with £3.5 billion of debt to pay a special dividend of 86p; the venture capitalists would then have paid £1.3 billion to buy half the shares, although they could have sold out within six months.

With ITV’s shares at 43p yesterday, 86p in cash looks attractive, but the extra £2.3 billion of debt would probably have killed the business in today’s advertising downturn.

ITV owes only £663 million today, but another £2 billion or more would wipe out every penny of equity.

That means ITV would have been left on the verge of bankruptcy, possibly by a group of investors who would have already baled out.

The consequences would be more chaotic than a morning of Jeremy Kyle — because it is hard to imagine Ofcom or politicians sitting idly by if the broadcaster could not afford to maintain a decent schedule. The result could have been a forced sale, and certainly it is not obvious that the reputations of the buyers, Goldman Sachs, Apax Partners and Blackstone, would have survived well. Having failed to predict a near continuous advertising downturn since their bid, the three must be grateful every day that Emmerdale is on that they did not prevail.

That leaves Virgin Media, the cable company that has never gone to the trouble of winning friends, even if one of its channels does show Britain’s Next Top Model.

Virgin Media proposed 105p of cash and 17p in shares, a very generous bid that would, with the benefit of hindsight, have taken it closer to an overwhelming level of borrowings. That would be troubling enough in itself, although cable has long had the ability to muddle through with vast levels of debt.

What was not at all clear was that the cable guys had enough ability creatively to manage ITV. The aggressive style of the Bill Huff’s fund, the éminence grise, behind Virgin Media would have gone down disastrously at ITV’s Grays Inn Road.

Veterans of Telewest, the cable company that Huff and several other investors took control of when it ran into financial trouble, recall meetings in which executives from the hedge fund would frighten Telewest types into submission. That is just the sort of environment that Ant and Dec would have enjoyed in their contract negotiation, although at least cost-control would probably be better than it is now, as viewers contended with watching night after night of unknowns.

Yet, look at ITV today. Michael Grade has restored morale, brought back some live football and hired top executive talent — but the company remains at the mercy of the advertising market. Spot ads and sponsorships account for 70 per cent of all revenues, and as a result ITV is more dependent on the skills of Alistair Darling than it is on its own wits.

What made the Virgin Media move interesting was the prospect of a combination of its more defensive subscription revenues with ITV’s content. After all, content and connections is not a bad business for Sky. Not everybody may want a Rovers Return phone service, or a News at Ten bongs ringtone, but ITV video on demand with ITV broadband at 50 megabits might be more attractive. Broadband growth would be welcome at an ITV struggling to make its online revenue targets. But for a combination to succeed it would need some more sensitive management, although perhaps Mr Grade and his colleagues can help with that.

Times, though, have moved on. Virgin Media is concentrating on a back-to-basics strategy and big deals are not finding support in the debt markets. But with Sky’s 17.9 per cent holding in ITV potentially coming on to the market, who knows what could emerge?

There will, no doubt, be plenty of suitors, but it is only a relationship that reduces ITV’s dependence on advertising that is really worth pursuing.

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