Martin Waller: Business commentary
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The rubbish is pretty much cleared off the streets and the public sector unions are quiescent. There is no sign of another round of industrial action, possibly because of the lack of schools to disrupt. But it is hard to believe that the struggle is over.
The Government's ability to cap public sector pay at a modest 2.7 per cent in the second quarter helped to hold back the overall trend to 3.5 per cent, which augurs well for inflation, interest rates, etc, etc.
Private sector increases are running higher, at 4 per cent for manufacturing. But with the economy slowing, there is nothing like the prospect of redundancies to take the edge off any appetite for higher wages here.
The same is not true for public workers. The received wisdom, repeated by the unions, the CBI and City economists, is that their wages do not stoke inflation. While firms in the real world have to recoup higher costs by putting up prices, in the state sector they merely add to the public sector deficit.
And yet. And yet. The sight of cosseted town hall workers striking for, and then receiving, inflation-busting pay rises can only stoke demand elsewhere, as those few of us still around who were in the workforce in 1977 will remember. The argument is that Gordon Brown will hold fast against pressure from the public sector unions because he cannot afford to do otherwise. But you have to ask yourself this. Is this a Government, even setting aside the craven surrender on raising the pension age in the public sector, that has a reputation for standing firm?
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