David Wighton: Business Editor’s commentary
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There could hardly have been a gloomier backdrop for the Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates yesterday. Halifax reported that house prices lurched down 2 per cent in June and share prices fell to 21.5 per cent below their high last year.
It is the speed with which the economy seems to be unravelling that is so unnerving. According to Halifax, house prices have fallen 4.5 per cent in only two months, which economists say is the steepest fall in 50 years.
More retailers yesterday reported a sharp downturn in trading in recent weeks. Primark, the fashion retailer that has been taking the high street by storm, said sales growth had ground to a halt in the past three months, having been at 4 per cent in the first quarter.
Barratt Developments became the latest housebuilder to warn of job cuts, announcing plans to lay off 1,200 staff.
There was more grim news from across the Atlantic where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant companies that underpin much of the US mortgage market, saw their shares tumble amid fears that they will have to be bailed out.
Back at home, the most alarming news was perhaps the slump in ITV advertising bookings for September.
As the advance booking deadline passed, advertising agencies said they expected ITV1 to be down about 13 per cent.
ITV's boss, Michael Grade, has been hoping that its revenues would hold up better than in previous downturns, partly because its airtime is relatively cheaper and because companies “know that TV advertising works”.
ITV's revenue has indeed been more resilient so far, certainly compared with the 12.6 per cent fall in advertising in May and June reported last week by Trinity Mirror, the newspaper group. ITV bookings were down 2 per cent in June and 4 per cent for July and August. But the collapse in bookings for September suggests big advertisers are very nervous about consumer spending after the summer holidays.
This wave of bad economic news has brought calls for the Bank of England to cut rates. Critics point to the fact that two-year fixed mortgage rates are now at an 11-year high.
But it was no surprise that the Bank sat on its hands yesterday, given the mounting inflationary pressures in the economy. The members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will have seen the latest inflation figures to be released next week. They could well be horrible.
The worst thing the Bank could do would be to make a move now that would have to be reversed when the direction of the economy becomes clearer.
It would be so easy to make a mistake. A bit like Dancing on Ice.
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When inflation increases interest rates are increased to control it. The rich have the money, the poor do the borrowing. I have always thought it quixotic that in order to control the economy the poor are asked to pay more to the rich.
Robert Good, Freetown, Sierra Leone
Britain's economy now manufactures nothing, is more and more regulated by the EU keen to take it down a peg or two, has surrendered its agriculture and fisheries, and is fostering a 1960's education system castrating the nation of quality in the name of equal mediocrity. Tories offer no alternative.
Janice, Witney, UK
The Government needs to look at its own labour force. If a few builders can loose 10,000 then reducing the civil service by 500,000 would seem reasonable. Oh, you cannot administer all the taxes any more? Then get rid of them as well! Then we might recover reasonably quickly.
David, Belfast, UK
alas, if we could but eat the media oh how wealthy we would be!
eat the media
glenn schaefer, holbrook, ny/usa
11 years of an economy built on cheap debt, now it's unravelling. What did the muppets in the Labour government and the BOE think would happen. Apparently, only $400 billion of $1600 billion of bad debt has been written off so far globally, it's going to get a lot worse. Bradford & Bingley are toast
jon, bham,
It is obvious to us all that we are in for at least 2 years hard slog whilst a natural correction to those false years of consumer spending on increased mortgages occurs.
We all know advertising suffers early.
The media including you are making it seem worse.
When it turns recovery will be overnight
Bob Greenaway, Tamarin , Mauritius
"most economists seem to descend into hysterics at the first sign of the downward part of the cycle"
Not only economists - the real danger is when governments do, and start propping up the 'growth', which is what puts us in the position we are now where they can no longer maintain the mirage.
Dominic Graham de Montrose, London,
Well Blossom in Paris feel free to open your own bank, borrow "our" savings and pay to us for "our" money more than you charge to "borrowers". Oh and best make sure you have lots of extra capital to cover your losses so you can give us back "OUR" money. Solidarity forever I guess will be the musak
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
Money's value is based on certain assumptions of stability. These seem to have been removed. Computer trading of vast sums, chasing the last percentage point of profit, will ensure the whole system collapses. They would buy up the UK and provide the minimum lifestyle if allowed, a return to slavery.
Chris, London,
Unfortunately in true NULAB style Brown only sees one way to go and that's to put up taxes. He has no idea how to control the economy, and the thought of cutting spending by closing quangos, and sacking a half million paper shufflers is not considered appropriate. Someone tell him please!
johnni K, romsey, england
Blossom, could you elaborate on when exactly you haven't been able to get YOUR money from a bank? I wasn't aware that any UK banks had not been able to provide customers with their deposits. Or have I missed the biggest story of the year? Me thinks their might be a touch of the drama queen in you,,,
Peter, London,
The likelihood of a cut in public spending is nil. Everyone knows this govt has no collective (or its most senior members no individual) instinct inclining towards the virtues of a cut; ergo, it won't happen.
Chris, London, England,
"most economists seem to descend into hysterics at the first sign of the downward part of the cycle"
Yes, so does the media. I reckon if the media didn't push and push the story, it wouldn't be/seem so bad.But yes,greed has caused this,and it's hard to believe those who profited so much,didn't save
Bev, Conwy, Wales
Well, thank you for that commentary David, now let's bring in a man who has said things can only get better: No not Tony he's off in the Middle East, and the best of luck to him, it's our old sparing partner Anatole. So Anatole should we stick with optimism or throw the baby out with the bath water?
John Walter, Bonn, germany
I want rates to stay high beacuse I have money invested in the bank.
Mervyn King, London, UK
Peter Harris is right Brown has overspent which is why he is
reluctant to cut taxes. However a 10 Billion tax cut next budget
surely is preferable to a 30 Billion increase in welfare payments if the economy goes into recession. Borrow the
tax cut in the shorterm, control spending longterm.
Roger, Weymouth, England
The dénoument in the economic slump is indeed happening fast, but the decline has been on for a couple of years. Unfortunately, it was hidden from view by ultra cheap imports of goods and money from the East. Our industry lost one third of its jobs in the last five years - we knew this was coming.
MarkS, Leeds,
It's too late to do anything at this stage. Brown's past policies are unravelling. A new era of money management is about to begin but it will take more than a decade of wise management and pain before it levels out. I have lived through this all before. Many times.
albert hall, hove, england
It is not surprising at all.!Given that our great economic sucess was not through manufactoring or exess of produce.But by selling all into hock and robbing the so called rich .But when the rich become poor you wont have rich poor people you will have but beggers.
Gblezard, London, uk
Why raise interest rates to control inflation. The huge increases in fuel & food, increased taxes and mortgage payments, are going to reduce personal buying power as it is. Adding to the misery by increasing loan costs even further will only ignite the demand for pay increases.
dudley holley, Thorpe Bay, UK
Blossom. You seem to be implying that your deposits with your bank have been lost to you. I doubt that is the case. And the regulators have been unable to sufficiently utilise the powers they already have to protect banks and the broader economy. More power wont help. They need better understanding.
Simon Adebesi, London, UK
When average house prices reach £100k, from £180k - about 3.5 times earnings - then couples will only need one income to pay the mortgage. Then people will be able to afford to pay for weddings again. Sustainable housing is better than get-rich-quick, pyramid schemes.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Lack of proper regulation, too much greed, short term planning has got us into this mess. A better approach is long term planning, sustained achievable growth, and the removal of a too expensive government.
Mike, Newbury, Berks.
Are we really measuring the state of our economy on TV advertising revenue? The economy is slowing, part of a natural cycle.
Next thing we will see are articles on how Big Brother contestants behaviour can predict earthquakes and by election outcomes. Better still, let's ask Mystic Meg!
Ian, Edinburgh, Scotland
The BoE cannot cut interest rates without exchange controls. If they did we would see a much geater flight of capital to the euro and other currencies. If the Government increases borrowing then interest rates will have to rise further.
Only one answer - cut public spending quickly!!!!
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
"It is the speed with which the economy seems to be unravelling that is so unnerving."
I would propose that the speed at which the housing market increased was unnerving. The banks started it by giving away unaffordable money, and they are ending it by not giving any money. Banks seek profit...!
P Flannery, Glasgow,
Why is Government behaviour being taken out of the equation these days with regard to the direction of the economy?
Mike, Midlands, UK
What amazes me is that people think that cutting taxes, stamp duty holiday etc. etc. will just make everything all right overnight! We have had years of financial promiscuity, what we need now is good husbandry, not just more money to spend in the same manor that got us into this mess...
Graham , Littlehampton,
this whole economic turmoil boils down to the lack of regulation of banks' capital requirements. banks as we all know are the big "borrowers". they borrow from OUR savings to make more money than they give us back in interest. and now they can't get back OUR money they lent out to bad borrowers.
blossom, Paris, France
Economic KPIs do not always maintain an upward direction. Cyclical variations are normal, but most economists seem to descend into hysterics at the first sign of the downward part of the cycle. The economy is not unraveling .. it has just come off the boil. A sensible perspective would not go astray
Stephen, Sydney, Australia
I am disgusted that te UK gov't is blind to the obvious: cut fuel taxes! Steal a page from the US Republican playbook: reduced tax rates spur growth and increase tax revenues. In this specific instance, at this particular time, this move is a no-brainer.
Pass it along to Gordon with my complements
Scot Danner, Dubai, UAE
Storm in a teacup really.
Tom, Perth, Oz
The lesson is that if the Bank is to do its job so must the government. Prudent governmemts do not borrow and spend up to the limit because they know that when bad times come they must to be able to cut taxes to stimulate the economy. Brown cannot do so because he is overspent .
peter harris, godalming, UK