David Wighton, Business Editor's commentary
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At least Barclays has finally admitted that it does have a problem and wants to raise money by issuing shares. Now all it has to do is find someone willing to buy them.
By soldiering on with what looks like an increasingly stretched balance sheet, Barclays risked not having the firepower to take advantage of improving terms for lenders. It makes sense to shore up its finances now, in case things get much worse.
But Barclays has made clear that it will not be following Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS along the classic route of asking existing shareholders for more money through a right issue.
Instead, it is contemplating issuing shares to new investors, some of which existing shareholders will be allowed to buy on the same terms.
Barclays was keen to avoid a rights issue for a number of reasons. It was concerned that short-selling by hedge funds could play havoc with its share price during the drawn-out rights issue process, as was seen in the cases of Bradford & Bingley and HBOS.
The Financial Services Authority’s moves against short-sellers on Friday have had some success. Although HBOS’s shares slipped back a bit yesterday, they are still 12 per cent higher than before the FSA’s announcement.
Barclays might still struggle to get a rights issue underwritten on anything but very punitive terms. Four weeks, the typical period of a rights issue, is a very long time in these conditions.
People close to Barclays say that some shareholders had also expressed opposition to the sort of deeply discounted rights issue that is the norm these days.
The investors pointed out that unless Barclays cut its dividend it would be paying a very high yield on the new, deeply discounted shares, raising its cost of capital.
Supporters of the rights issue admit that it is the worst form of fundraising, except for all the other forms. There are drawbacks, but they are outweighed by the benefits.
As for the planned placing and pre-emptive offer, everything will depend on the terms. The last time that Barclays offered something similar — to Temasek and China Development Bank last summer — it was able to placate its existing shareholder base by selling the new shares at a premium to the prevailing share price.
It may struggle to negotiate such terms a second time. The shares are more likely to be priced at a discount.
The size of the clawback, the mechanism by which existing shareholders can demand first claim on the new shares, is also important. Only £1.7 billion of the £6.6 billion shares offered last time to Temasek and CDB were available for the clawback. Existing shareholders may demand a bigger share this time.
The number of new investors will also determine City attitudes. A placing that left a single, new investor with as much as 20 per cent of the enlarged bank would be regarded with more suspicion than one carved up between three or four new investors.
Existing shareholders would rightly demand a hefty premium if a single institution were to be handed a stake giving it significant influence or blocking power.
Yesterday’s trading statement shows Barclays weathering the crunch well. It will need every morsel of good news to woo new investors on terms which do not upset existing shareholders, big and small.
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