Carl Mortished: World Business Briefing
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With brutal efficiency, the oil price is beginning to duff up a monster of the 20th century: globalisation. Those great tentacles that gripped our world in a hideous embrace are suddenly weakening and the multinational octopus is looking a bit pale and sickly. The extraordinary rise in the price of crude oil is wrecking outsourced business models everywhere and distance from your customer is no longer merely a matter of dull logistics. Whether you are selling coiled steel or cut flowers, the cost of transport is a problem.
America's steel industry is enjoying an unexpected revival, its competitive edge sharpened by the tariff wall erected by the cost of shipping heavy, low added-value products across the Pacific. We hear fewer complaints from Americans about Asian steel-dumping; instead, it is Asian exporters who are feeling the pinch and the pressure is from inputs as well as shipping to customers.
China needs to import iron ore and coking coal, but the cost of shipping a tonne of ore from Brazil to China now exceeds $100, a cost that is equal to the value of the mineral itself. The oil overhead for passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific is proving to be a powerful bargaining chip in negotiations between some Australian iron ore mining companies and their Chinese steel mill customers. Antipodean miners are holding out for a higher price, arguing that some of the benefit of lower carriage costs belongs to producers. Proximity is suddenly more profitable and local solutions begin to look less like the expensive option. It would be rash to predict a revival of the Yorkshire textile mill and the demise of the Guangdong sweatshop, but you have to ask whether it makes sense to ship stuff from China when the price of a sea voyage from Shanghai represents half of the value of the product.
The economics of long-distance supply chains are being rewritten; if it is small and expensive - drugs and sophisticated electronics, for example - fuel costs have little impact, but bulky goods are under the cosh. Furniture, footwear, basic machinery, building materials - this is the stuff that China exports in vast quantities to America and it was very cheap, until now.
Economists at CIBC World Markets reckon that globalisation might go into reverse if the escalation in fuel costs continues. The freight cost of importing goods into America represented an effective tariff of 3 per cent when the oil price was $20 per barrel in 2000; it is now more than 9 per cent and will rise to 11 per cent if oil hits $150, CIBC says.
The revenge of localisation will be good for some but not for others and, just as globalisation had its victims, so will the gradual retreat by big business from the air and the high seas.
The business of airfreighting perishable goods is going seriously awry. Most of the cut flowers sold in Britain come from East African and Latin American plantations. This trade has been a key target for climate change campaigners, who worry about so-called food miles and advocate local sourcing to reduce the carbon footprint of produce. British flower importers complain about 40 per cent increases in freight rates. In the case of carnations, a commodity product, the cost of airfreight from Kenya or Colombia now accounts for half of its value. Too bad, say the anti-globalisation brigade. Do without roses in January. Eat turnips, wear scratchy English tweeds, save the planet and blow a raspberry at global capitalism. Unfortunately, it will not work like that because without the benefit of cheap global trade, we will be at even greater risk of exploitation by big companies.
Inexpensive fuel has made life in Britain very easy for the great majority, bringing with it not just cheap clothes and appliances from Asia but also very cheap food. The tariff wall of expensive marine and jet fuel will favour domestic manufacturers, but it will punish consumers, who will find themselves once again at the mercy of a reduced number of suppliers. These will expand their profit margins, comfortable in the knowledge that the overseas competitor is suffering a critical cost disadvantage.
It is not clear that Britain will gain much from a localised world. A nation that depends heavily on trade is unlikely to profit when trading becomes more expensive.
A more likely outcome than localisation will be regionalisation - Asian, Latin American and African manufacturers will be forced to look to neighbouring markets for opportunities if the cost of long-haul markets becomes prohibitive.
An expansion of regional trade would be good for the world as it might open opportunities for neighbours of giants, such as China and India to sell their wares.
However, it may not be good for Britain, which has thrived on London's role as a global trading mecca. It would not be illogical for trade in financial services to follow the regionalisation of trade in goods - we may see more dispersal of financial markets to the Far East, the Middle East and, eventually, to Latin America and Africa. In such a world, where travel is expensive and financial capital more dispersed, Britain's advantage might be more difficult to sell.
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Services outsourcing will still continue... for good.
Sunil, Bengalooru, India
I am excited that the West will be forced to grow local and then we won't have to feel guilty about the developing world any longer. We can grow our own food, take care of our own, and put up a big wall to keep the starving herd out.
Joshua, Los Angeles,
Kate: Amen. Never get high on your own supply. Now, will we go out like Tony Montana? I hope not, but who knows..
Jason, London, UK
Pure ignorance.. hope you enjoy the coming inflation in all kind of goods not produced in the UK
Jose, Valencia,
I'm one of the 'profits of doom' referred to by an earlier poster!
Well, think on this.......in 2012 London stage the Olympics at a projected cost of, let's say, at the 'moment' 15 billion quid.
There'll be NO cheap international air fares by then..... so how do we fill the stadiums?
Shirley Bowen, Blackpool, UK
May this please be the end of uncontrolled immigration and we can have Britain as our home again.
There is a God.
Paul Hunt, London,
The slow down is hurting the big Asian energy importers like China far worse than the exporter like Brazil and Russia. Rather than ending globalization, I expect its direction will bend towards
the energy exporters and away from the Asian giants, all suffering under weight of producer price rise.
Robert Berke, Oakland, USA
Nicholas - you do know that OPEC supplies less than 50% of current oil output (thus they are as much a monopoly as George Bush is competent)
You do know that most of the speculation on oil futures is being done by American led funds.
Tim, Shanghai,
A long time ago, I attended a lecture by Barnes Wallis. I particularly remember a slide he showed, which was a projection of the world centred above the UK.
We are in the centre of the land masses.
An excellent competitive position that many forget.
We should continue to develop this.......
Andrew, London, UK
The passiveness with which governments, pundits and the media accept the oil hikes as if they were uncontrollable natural phenomena like earthquakes or hurricanes, and not the product of sheer speculation is unbelievable. So, don't complain if relevant people are not willing to put reins on this.
Geraldo Lino, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Carnations and turnips and roses IN SEASON! Wonderful!
And strawberries, apples and pears etc. Delights to look forward to, not jaded, jet-lagged, nitrogen pumped specimens in supermarket plastic packaging.
YES PLEASE!! Those really were the good old days.
Bill, Suzhou, China
Simplistic scaremongering from Mr. Mortished.
He appears to have considered neither the low carbon, low energy cost of shifting data-carrying electons around the world, nor the complexity of 'upping-sticks' of the expertise and infrastructure behind finanical services.
oxford dom, Oxford,
If your pockets are already lined with cash and you don't have to still try to establish yourself and attempt to do more than JUST survive in these difficult times, then everybody else's existence is just a game until the powers that be get bored and retreat into luxury with their huge oily stash!!
craig, nuneaton, uk
If China's competitive edge was simply down to cheap transport costs then it was never going to be a long-term one. I'm amazed anybody thought otherwise.
Dave, Slough,
Like my own speciality, software, the cost of transporting financial services is nil (unless you want boozy face to face lunches). Thus, London's status as financial top-dog may not be under such threat.
And I'd choose "natural" barriers like oil prices over protectionist barriers any day!
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
If the UK slashed the numbers of people in the non-productive payroll of HMG, slashed the number on benefits and focussed on real enterprise and productivity, we wouldn't need to import cheap tat from abroad.
So lets start by sacking most of the useless politicians.
MarkS, York,
The USA with a huge sophisticated home market will do very well. Couple this with highly competitive exports of high added value goods and what will happen.........the $ will rise strongly. Time to get on board!
Gwilym Ashworth, Wisborough Green, UK
The Brits are world masters in the long gloomy face and produce the best prophets of doom there are. It is either raining or about to pour. In fact Britain has shown remarkable resilience, and I expect it to overcome this challenge as well.
Andrew Piercy, London, England
Sixty percent of the world's oil is not produced by OPEC, so they don't have a monopoly. As for Bush, he just wants to change control of OPEC to himself, not smash it. Iraq: learn about the difference between reserves and production. It makes ALL the differernce. Peak oil is happening now.
Pythor Sehn, Apache Junction, USA
If it slows down mass Third World immigration to the West, I'm all for high fuel prices. Air carriers are dropping routes, cheap fares are skyrocketing, and manufacturers will be moving jobs from Asia to Africa (for the Europe market) and Mexico (for the North American market). Bring it on!
MaryJ, San Francisco , Calif.
So Britain is in a lose-lose situation. Well we can't go around the world taking over any other country as we did in the Empire days as there aren't any left. So start working then!
Richard, Germany,
"Since invasion of Iraq in 2001"
Ah, the American education system strikes again...
Kate, Southampton, UK
Oh, dear, let's not start blaming our proxy partners in OPEC for the difficulties we face today. Let's look in the mirror at our own addiction to the black gold, and deal with it like men. Up until 1970, when the US peaked, it was the big pusher on the block. Too bad we got addicted to our own stuff
Rick, Wellington, New Zealand
Since invasion of Iraq in 2001, OPEC has decided to wage a subversive OIL war against the west, sensing its days of monopoly are numbered once US opens the massive Iraqi oil reserves.
Thanks George Bush for trying to smash this rotten malevolent MONOPOLY !
Nicholas, California, USA