Martin Waller: Business commentary
Win tickets to the ATP finals
It is tempting, especially if you are one of those fortunate enough to have seen the real value of your mortgage whittled away in the 1970s and early 1980s by the last bout of double-digit inflation, to wonder whether a few more notches on the inflation stick might not be such a bad thing.
The Bank of England is not of this view, no matter how unpopular this may make Threadneedle Street. Central bankers do not exist to be popular, they exist to keep inflation under control, a point also conceded yesterday by the Bank's counterparts in Frankfurt at the European Central Bank.
Those of us with memories of the 1980s will also be aware that a little inflation, once entrenched, can swiftly become a lot of inflation. This begets higher wage demands, rising prices to pay for these, and the whole grim spiral. The Bank is facing the most testing time since independence was granted in 1997. But then, so are the rest of us. The consumer price index, 3 per cent in April, will probably come in at 3.1 per cent for May, requiring Mervyn King to get out his fountain pen for that awkward letter to the Chancellor, and will head for 4 per cent not long after.
The benign view sees inflation subsiding by the end of the year, allowing rate cuts. Siren voices, such as from the Ernst & Young Item Club, suggest we should adjust the CPI to disregard those inconvenient “external” factors such as food and energy prices. You can call any measure of inflation that fails to take account of rising prices “core inflation”, as Item does. You could also call it a wombat. Just don't call it a measure of inflation.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
36-month car lease
on contract hire for
£359.99 plus VAT pm
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
The UK's leading alternative to showroom finance.
Finance packages tailored to your needs.
Minimum loan of £15,000
Car Insurance
c£100,000 + car, bonus & bens
Lord Search & Selection
Midlands
Competitive
Barclaycard
Competitive
EVERSHEDS
London and Manchester
£80-95,000
Clay McGuire Executive Selection
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now & save over £100pp.
11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.