Martin Waller: Business commentary
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It is tempting, especially if you are one of those fortunate enough to have seen the real value of your mortgage whittled away in the 1970s and early 1980s by the last bout of double-digit inflation, to wonder whether a few more notches on the inflation stick might not be such a bad thing.
The Bank of England is not of this view, no matter how unpopular this may make Threadneedle Street. Central bankers do not exist to be popular, they exist to keep inflation under control, a point also conceded yesterday by the Bank's counterparts in Frankfurt at the European Central Bank.
Those of us with memories of the 1980s will also be aware that a little inflation, once entrenched, can swiftly become a lot of inflation. This begets higher wage demands, rising prices to pay for these, and the whole grim spiral. The Bank is facing the most testing time since independence was granted in 1997. But then, so are the rest of us. The consumer price index, 3 per cent in April, will probably come in at 3.1 per cent for May, requiring Mervyn King to get out his fountain pen for that awkward letter to the Chancellor, and will head for 4 per cent not long after.
The benign view sees inflation subsiding by the end of the year, allowing rate cuts. Siren voices, such as from the Ernst & Young Item Club, suggest we should adjust the CPI to disregard those inconvenient “external” factors such as food and energy prices. You can call any measure of inflation that fails to take account of rising prices “core inflation”, as Item does. You could also call it a wombat. Just don't call it a measure of inflation.
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