Gerard Baker: American View
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It’s natural in a crisis to blame the leader. With their fevered talk of decapitation, Labour politicians are only doing what all rational people do when disaster strikes – panic. But I wonder whether all this speculation about the inadequacies of the Prime Minister is not missing a slightly larger point about the present circumstances. I have no doubt that Gordon Brown has his political weaknesses, but even a casual observer cannot help but notice that Labour’s real problems are rooted in something much deeper than who lives at 10 Downing Street.
In fact, for all the fashionable chatter in economic circles about how the world has decoupled from America in the past few years, the crisis unfolding in Britain is proceeding along remarkably similar lines to the one that has engulfed the US.
Nothing better illustrates the point than the bleak state of the incumbent party’s political prospects.
In Britain the governing party toils below 30 per cent in the opinion polls, the Opposition wins control of London and takes its first parliamentary by-election in 30 years. In the US the approval rating of the President barely touches 30 per cent and his party has lost three “safe” congressional seats in special elections in the past three months.
This may be the first time that anyone has placed Crewe, the trainspotters’ Mecca, and Tupelo, Mississippi, the birthplace of Elvis Presley, in the same sentence. But the week before Labour crashed to defeat on a 17 per cent swing in Crewe & Nantwich, the Republicans lost Tupelo on a – yes – 17 per cent swing to the Democrats from the 2004 presidential election.
Meanwhile, two young, almost completely untested leaders David Cameron and Barack Obama, are riding high with comfortingly vapid messages of hope amid the gloom. These conditions are so strikingly similar that it is unlikely in fact that they are not connected. And of course, they are. Iraq won’t do as a reason because it has largely fallen out of the public debate in Britain. A better explanation is the state of both economies.
The UK’s economic woes are rooted in the same twin shocks that befell the US, of course – a financial market crunch and a sudden acceleration of global commodity prices. If the causes are similar, the symptoms on opposite sides of the Atlantic are nearly identical: banks are tightening credit and house prices are falling; the price of every other good and service is increasing; and, having risen against the dollar consistently over the past six years, the pound has more or less tracked the dollar since the crisis hit last summer.
Given the nature of the challenges, and especially given the importance of the financial sector in both countries, you would expect them to be on similar cycles, in roughly similar ways. In fact, the US seems be moving on a downward curve about six months to a year ahead of Britain. So for Mr Brown and the rest of the British public, the key question may be: what can we learn from America about what might happen in the UK in the next year or so?
The good news for Britain is that the betting is that the US might avoid the most fearful consequences of the crisis and escape with only a mild recession and a sluggish recovery. That may not sound wonderful but with two years to go to a general election, it might yet save Mr Brown. But, on closer inspection, the news is not so good. In the US the financial crisis has entered a new phase. The immediate problems in the interbank market seem to have ebbed. But there are troubling signs that the financial retrenchment we have seen so far in the mortgage sector may be spreading to the rest of the system.
Corporate lending standards have tightened. More worrying, consumer loans are under pressure. Car loans have all but dried up and student loans have dropped sharply – next in line seems certain to be credit card lending and the home equity business.
If this pattern of widening financial distress is replicated in the UK, the chances of an unpleasant new crunch on consumer loans and credit seem considerable.
The direction of the US housing market also holds clues to how bad it might get in the UK. According to the widely watched Case-Shiller index, American house prices are down by about 11 per cent in the past year. But barometers of housing demand and supply, such as inventories of unsold homes, suggest that we are not nearly close to the bottom yet – it may well reach 25 per cent.
The British housing market is not an exact simulacrum of the US, but anything even close to a 25 per cent fall would be devastating. The UK is slightly better placed than the US in terms of household debt, with a somewhat positive savings rate.
But the big differences both point to bigger problems for the UK than the US has experienced – and both are related to policy.
The US Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates aggressively since last summer, a factor that surely has eased the pain. For a long while there has been an assumption that the Bank of England will be similarly aggressive.
However, the Bank faces constraints that the Fed does not. Its remit is different, being inflation-focused. More important, the US central bank simply has to take account of much broader economic circumstances in setting policy. It knows that failure to deliver a short-term recovery would have much larger consequences for the world. The Bank has to focus on getting its inflation fighting strategy in the UK right and so cannot risk rate cuts on the same scale.
The other big difference is the fiscal picture. When the crisis hit last summer the US Government’s deficit was a little more than 1 per cent of gross domestic product – too high at that point of the cycle but manageable. The UK deficit at this cyclical peak is closer to 3 per cent. A serious downturn in the British economy risks a ballooning of that deficit – with potentially dire consequences for the pound and domestic financial markets. This month’s desperate U-turn on the lower income tax rate was not a positive step in that regard.
It is hard to resist a rather obvious conclusion. Every Labour government since 1929 has been undone by one or more types of economic crisis – financial, fiscal, currency, inflation. The great achievement of new Labour is that it has avoided that fate. Until now.
Now, as if to make up for lost time, it looks like Britain is going to have all four of them together. Changing the leader isn’t going to change that.
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I hate it when i here labour ministers trott out the same old party line, best chancellor we have ever had, low inflation, sound economy, low unemployment. Brown has been a disaster and not prudent chancellor Hazel Blears you talking darlek!
Paul Smith, Telford, UK
Goldilocks was never going to hang around, but most ignored thrift through the '7 fat years' by not storing up for the '7 lean years' instead favoured the 'prodigal son' lifestyle and partied on. They may now find their 'houses are built on sand' (Gordon must have dozed through his dad's sermons!)
Roger S., Yateley, UK
It's not all Gordon's fault. He didn't personally drive up commodity prices. The problem UK and US share, it appears, has been easy credit which has fueled a kind of inflation (as with house prices) so people have had to borrow more to keep up. Spending house-equity isn't a solid financial basis...
Sarah, Kew, UK
People are beginning to realise - at long, long, last - that Gordon Brown was not a sound Chancellor but a hopeless, incompetent, tax-and-waster, and that, against some pretty stiff opposition, he has now shown himself to be the worst Prime Minister since the war. Roll on the general election!
Colin, Manchester,
Mervyn has got his new 5 year contract and he knows that Gordon is a dead duck, so Mervyn will do what he is paid to do and what HE wants to do - which is nothing. He has no wiggle room and with inflation due to double his parameters over the next 12 months, Base rates will still be at 5% at Xmas.
Alan Gooch, Honiton,
How can an American have a realistic view of anything else in the world. 99% never leave the country, elections are like travelling circuses and are money based (no substance). They think they are the police of the world when in fact they dictate and create more problems than they ever solve.
malachy, Newton Abbot, uk
Clive Stringer
"The seeds of our financial problems were planted by Thatcher and tended by Brown"
Oh Yes. Of course, I forgot that pre-Thatcher this country was in a marvellous condition - financial and industrial. That's why she was elected, I suppose.
Steve, Birmingham,
Funny how some people insist on linking economic problems with other issues that have practically nothing to do with them. And as far as leaders go, presidents/pm's get far too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they don't.
gb, Austin, USA
I fail to see how the Government could have regulated against the greed and poor business practices of the financil sector.
After all they were not doing anything illegal by buying subprime (NINA) loans from the US.
Brainless and short sighted maybe but illegal, No.
Howard Leech, Gdansk, POland.
The problem is this: As Europeans, like Germany,France, Italy and now the UK trend toward a more conservative style of government, America - in swinging left to the Democrat Party - are seeking to replace conservative government with the nostrums of the Nanny State that have failed Europe. No Win!
peter, miami, usa
Changing the leader might not fix the problems, but it gets rid of Brown.
Mike, Sydney,
Forget the effects; think about the causes of the present economic problems. They are geo-political: (1) very wealthy countries opposed to the US and its allies adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan have withdraw funds from money-markets (2) and are buying oil & other futures contracts mischievously.
Carl Marks, Gibraltar, EU
"UK juddering down a rockier policy path than the US"
Are we? The last time I checked the US was hundreds of billions of dollars in debt to the far east in order to pay for the Iraq war. We may not quite be balancing the books but it's nowhere that bad!
Owen, London, UK
It is worth having a depression in order to get rid of this discredited government, which should have saved resources for the hard times rather than spending them for little return.
William , London,
Why is a 25% fall in houseprices "Devastating" ? Aside from the feedbad factor for those in negative equity ?
Also, as he can't tax any more, the answer seems to be to reduce public spending to reduce the deficit,and reduce borrowing and to help inflation by reducing money supply that way.
Roarke, Wembley, UK
Ask your parents what the 70's were like, you'll be in a similar circumstance soon.
Obama and Cameron are not Reagon and Thatcher, so dobnt expect a fix anytime soon.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
GORDO has done what every Labour government has ALWAYS done. Tax everything and spend everything (on failed IT schemes, social engineering & Ministerial initiatives.
They want our money to spend (waste).
Now there is nothing left except a declining pound and property prices and unemployment
David Nammory, Liverpool,
The UK has struggled to meet the governments proposed build plans for new homes for many years. Most national housebuilders have moth-balled new sites, and with a continued influx of migrant workers from EU member states demand will remain for housing, albeit leasehold. It isn't all gloomy!
Darren Stacey, Cheltenham,
So long as "Great" Britain maintains its island mentality by refusing to be a fully paid up member of the European Union by joining the single currency, it will sink into economic decline. It is a choice between the long term benefit of the people or the selfish interests of the City
peter fieldman, paris , france
Recent events show Chancellor Brown's boasts of prudence and stability as unfounded. Now he's PM there's nowhere to hide from the fallout from years of mismanagement, and no strong personalities to divert attention from the Blair legacy of state control, illegal wars and sleaze. Labour are finished.
Dave Hall, Stafford, UK
I have followed the "Peak Oil" websites since 2003. Many have predicted that peaking global oil production would cause global oil prices to escalate beyond anyone's wildest dreams, signalling the end of the "continuous growth" economic model and a collapse of the banking system.
RobertT, Watford,
'The UK deficit is closer to 3%'. Whose responsibility is this?
Maureen Dodds, Vibrac, France
The end is in sight, but the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world -the US is freer to print money without sending the greenback into freefall.
The UK doesnt have this advantage - if it cuts rates sharply the wholesale dumping of sterling would bring on a catastrophic currency crisis
rick, sydney,
There is an easy place to get some funds for easing of the petrol tax . Re-implement the rebate from the EU. A billion pounds could be useful for lowering tax on petrol. Low income people contribute to VAT, that goes to Brussels. The money could also be used to increase tax thresholds.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Good point about Gordon Brown not making any difference. However, the one thing the US and UK have in common is unsustainable consumer debt represented by record trading deficits. To correct this we have to cut consumption - not stimulate it with interest rate cuts.
Stephen Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
.... Government can do it's bit by slashing public spending and easing the tax burden to wealth creating enterprise and ordinary workers. The BoE should be left to target inflation, otherwise capital will flee these shores - the UK declining to a polarised authoritarian society (Police State!).
Stephen Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
The USA is its own master, while the UK was hugely constrained by the EU in its freedom to act to prevent catastrophe. We are wedded to absurd climate change obligations, eagerly endorsed by the Tories!
Brown and Cameron are little more than Punch & Judy puppets on an EU stage.
Harlan Leyside, Basildon, England
There's another similarity, the solution to the 10p tax rate fiasco is to throw money at the British consumer. Exactly what's happening in the US right now. It's just that the British giveaway is unplanned, less affordable and (as always) in micro.
Fred Keeling, Almunecar, Spain
What about the supply squeeze in the UK where new builds do not keep up with increasing immigrant population? USA has cheaper land and huge over supply of housing. Neither were UK loans given so carelessly as in USA. Brown's socialist control personality is THE major problem.
charles, London,
Like all the highly paid experts I am not to sure about the economics but I am sure that it will take more than a change of leadership to put Britain back in credit. The seeds of our financial problems were planted by Thatcher and tended by Brown, Who now will reap the harvest? The poor I suspect.
Clive Stringer, Eggesford, England
Strategic planning by government must be abysmal! Gordon Brown promised us there would be no more economic cycles. Did he sell our gold reserves at a knock-down prices? What has happened to North Sea oil profits? Why are UK fuel prices so high. Why weren't we warned in July 2007?
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines
Bernanke is something of a fool, mimicking Greenspan, who's prior actions were the very cause of our current problems.
The last thing we need is a weak central bank pursuing that discredited course.
The MPC must hold firm, and we must take out medicine. The alternative path leads to disaster.
Toby R, London,
Why does the media nearly always compares the UK to the USA? How do we compare to our neighbours in Europe?
Romans Seja, Billesdon, UK
Bear in mind that if interest rates were cut to low inflation would boost. Therefore they are walking on double edged razor.
If rates drop inflations sores; and if they don't do anything the economy will take ages to recover.
Alvaro, London,
When you are in a life raft who gives a monkey about global inflation. We are seeing the wholesale destruction of the financial services market. BofE needs to cut rates to 2% or this recession will last 10 times as long. Bernanke understood how to tweak it so why didn't King?
Will, Lincoln, UK
That's true, but we might now get our promised referendum
john, worthing,
The UK is now living off hope! Perhaps it is time for some soul searching as to how we all got in this mess. And perhaps we can stop lecturing others either in Europe or around the world as to how "great" we are and start listening to, and learning from, others!!
Richard, Plymouth,