THERE are more misunderstandings about the oil market than perhaps any other.
In America, drivers are fuming and politicians are demanding explanations
because petrol has hit about $3.50 a gallon. That’s 47p a litre, less than
half the 105p-115p being paid by British motorists. So “high” in Cambridge,
Massachusetts, and Oxford, Mississippi, is “low” in similarly named cities
in Britain.
But assume that prices are “high”, which indeed they are by historic
standards. We are mistaken when we think these “high” prices are causing
inflation. High oil prices can force consumers to spend more on petrol and
heating oil, at the expense of other purchases. Ask any suffering
restaurateur or clothes retailer if you doubt that. But high oil prices
can’t trigger a rise in the general price level – inflation – unless someone
pumps money into the economy so that, to use an oldie but goodie from the
economists’ lexicon, there is more money chasing the same amount of goods.
If you want something to blame for inflation, don’t look at oil prices, look
at the billions the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy gurus and their
confederates at the US Treasury are pouring into the economic system.
Another myth: we are running out of oil. According to WorldPublic Opinion.org,
“majorities in 15 of the 16 nations surveyed around the world think that oil
is running out . . . only 22% on average believe that ‘enough oil will be
found so that it can remain a primary source of energy for the foreseeable
future’ ”. Those majorities who think we are running out of oil include 85%
of the British and 76% of the American citizens polled. Luckily, they are
wrong.
Production of oil is being constrained by several forces, none of them due to
God’s failure to put enough of the black gold under our feet. Several
countries that are important sources of supply are in political turmoil, and
unable to bring to market the oil they are capable of producing. Think
Nigeria, where security problems have shut down about 20% of the nation’s
capacity of 2.5m barrels a day and discouraged new investment, and Iraq,
where political paralysis and terrorists have kept production at less than
half its potential.
Other countries will not develop the reserves of oil known to lie under their
territories.
Russia has made it clear that foreigners who invest in its oil industry might
be playing a game with Vladimir Putin known as heads I win, tails you lose.
Find nothing and you lose your money; find substantial reserves and the
state squeezes you until your shareholders’ pips squeak. Only companies at
least 51% owned by Russians – read FOPs, Friends of Putin – are allowed to
look for oil in the new, difficult areas in which it is to be found. Little
surprise that oil output dropped in the first quarter of this year.
Mexico’s president, Felipe Calderon, wants to revive Petroleos de Mexico
(Pemex), the world’s third-largest oil producer, by contracting with foreign
companies to introduce modern methods of extracting more from existing
fields and finding new ones. But legislation is stalled by left-wingers who
have seized and are sleeping at podiums in both houses of congress.
Saudi Arabia’s royal family has announced that it will not expand capacity.
Abdallah Jum’ah, chief executive of the kingdom’s oil company, said high
prices didn’t mean the world needs more oil because such market signals were
“imperfect”, and energy minister Ali al-Naimi has announced that there are
no plans to embark on a new round of expansion. The oil is there, but with
current production yielding about $120 a barrel, there is no incentive to
find more, especially since new production might drive down prices as demand
from the slowing American economy falls.
Venezuela’s oil industry can only be described as a mess. President Hugo
Chavez’s cronies are inadequate substitutes for the technicians they have
replaced, so production is falling, while foreign investors are reluctant to
trust hundreds of millions in exploration dollars to a regime that treats
contracts as the first step in a negotiation.
In America, Congress alternates between calls for “energy independence” and
refusals to allow drilling in what it considers environmentally sensitive
areas in Alaska and offshore California and Florida.
There’s more, but you get the idea. There is a lot of oil out there to be
found and produced, not even including the vast reserves in Canada’s tar
sands. We might have reached the age of peak panic about oil supplies, but
not of peak oil.
One thing we think we know about the oil business is correct. High oil prices
and the greenhouse gasses produced by using oil have important geopolitical
consequences. These $100+ prices have led to a massive flow of wealth, and
hence power, from consuming to producing countries. If oil were still $20 or
even $40 a barrel Russia would not have the wherewithal to revert to its
bullying foreign policy, and America’s banks would not be going hats-in-hand
to Arab capitals in search of new capital. If petrol prices had not closed
in on $4 a gallon in America, thousands of Chelsea tractors and small trucks
would not be sitting, unsold and unloved, on dealers’ lots. If oil had not
gone above $100 a barrel, the current enthusiasm for super-expensive nuclear
power would not have reached fever pitch.
And if oil did not produce greenhouse gases when propelling cars and heating
homes, there would be no huge subsidies for ethanol production, acreage
would not be diverted from growing food to growing fuel, and the current
run-up in food prices would be less steep.
So oil indeed matters. But not in the ways we most often think.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at
the Hudson Institute.
No doubt one of the same kind of "experts" that wasa telling us last year that the sub-prime crisis was just a minor "blip"
Correct on politics, wrong on geology
For peak-oil not to be real would mean that Oil was an infinite resource on a finite planet. The only thing in doubt is the timing
Craig, Edinburgh, uk
Brian in Virginia - if Peak Oil is a scam, why is Chevron using its record profits to BUY BACK billion$ of its own stock? Thats what a company does when it is preparing voluntary liquidation. At this rate Chevron will close its doors in 2024.
Meanwhile BP, Shell are renaming themselves "energy" co'
charlie, london, uk
The time has come for a post-petroleum economy. On this point Americans will reunite... so watch out oil producers - your days are numbered.
Randall, Jacksonville, FL, USA
Hear hear!
Emma, Chandler, Arizona, USA
You failed to mention that the US has enough shale oil in the Green River Basin to be completely free of foreign oil dependence. So much so that it could even become a net exporter. With no new refineries built in nearly thirty years, we couldn't turn it into fuel if we wanted to.
Luis, Warwick, USA
Who knows what the truth is as to whether we are encountering peak oil or not...governments will feed the general population with half truths to back up their story. No oil producing country is interestd in increasing supply as they are racking up profits at ever increasing rates today.
Racha Teemor, London, UK
As a leading pro Iraqi invasion neo con Irwin Stelzer has an imperialist middle east genda. He`s not a geologist and offers no resource statistics. The dollar is in crisis and Stelzer is wheeled out to use oil price to attack resource nations rather than reform the corrupt US monetary system
david hartfield, brighton,
There is a scientific theory that oil does not come from fossil....that the earth creates it.....if true there will be plenty of oil.
The "greenies" in the USA are denying anything that would enable us to be self-deficient....how they got so much power is beyond me.
Bobc, Ky, USA
Sorry Paul of Worthing but there is at present no oil exploration happening in the Falklands .A rig is expected late 2008.Contrary to inaccurate press reporting,the drilling done by the semi Bideford Dolphin in the mid 90's was exceedingly disappointing.
mike hagan, Salta, Argentina
Where is the independent research that says there is "plenty" of oil ? This is one of the most debatable topics in the new today. Sure there are supply disruptions (like Iraq) and all oil producers are happy with the current prices but that doesn't mean we are not running out in 10, 25 or 50 years
Bill Gates, Redmond, USA
When oil goes up this leads directly to inflation for some 90% of oil is used for transportation and so when oil goes up transportation cost go up with it - and so to does everything else. Oil is at record prices and prices only rise when the product being sold is in short supply.
Robert David Farmer, Brixham, UK
A couple things:
>A finite resource will always run out when it is used
>Nuclear power is not super expensive (not even with the waste factors; see DUPIC and other solutions/advancements)
>The Hudson Institute gets a black eye from Irwin
Matt, Oakville, ON, Canada
Charlie Scott is perpetuating the myth that wilderness's only value is to be seen by man.
farquad, Thousand Villages, USA
Its always amusing to hear the price comparison of"petrel" in the U.K. and the U.S.A. Maybe if Americans lived in a country only 300 miles instead of 2500 miles across they wouldnt mind as much when the cost of driving increased especially if they had to drive tiny cars like the Mini Cooper .
Bob Elgin, Riverton, U.S.A.
Stelzer is right, but only up to a point. I wasn't aware of the rate at which dead sea creatures get buried and compressed into hydro-carbons had actually speeded up.
e skelton, cardiff, wales
I can't believe that the government is going to let the oil companies force us into a recession or depression.
Goebel, Lexington , USA
Since when is an economist an expert in oil reserves? Or maybe he's not paying close enough attention to the folks who do know like Total and Shell and BP whose senior executives tell us the days of cheap oil are behind us and the work will never produce more than 90 mmbd.
Bill Moore, Papillion, United States
Dee, all that oil is going into our oil reserve. Why we're not releasing some of that oil or why refineries aren't producing more gas is pure greed and our govt should be doing something about it. But they're not because they're too busy counting all their lobbyist oil money.
Kevin, Fairfax,
Alaska barely fits withing the geographic size of the "lower 48". It is huge ! To not drill there is stupid. We are "protecting" wildnerness areas that nobody will ever see in their lifetime. Your great grandkids will never see it.
I say get out the drills and re-name Alaska "swiss cheese"
Charlie Scott, scottsdale, usa
A US oil executive in the late 70`s,, replied to my question would the world soon run out of oil, and he replied to me.... that oil would not run out in his lifetime, nor mine, nor my childrens, nor my grand children, nor my great grand children, nor my great great granchildren.... I believed him.
nigel, whitstable, uk
Only idiot economists believe that you can have infinite growth in a finite world. If we believe all our economists tell us we will be like yeast in a bottle of syrup and expand our population until we poison ourselves and our environment.
Ken Neal, Newbury, UK
Much of the Oil Irwin is talking of is going to require almost as much energy to get out the ground as you get back. Oil fields have a history of peaking unexpectedly and declining rapidly, so if energy returns fall, the investment risks becomes too high and a lot of Oil will remain in the ground.
William , Nottingham, UK
I didnt read all the comments but, has everyone missed the fact that the only has to be refined into the gas that we use? they dont just pump it out of the ground and take it right to your local gas station...
Dick Whistle, englewood,
Given that facts on reserves are sketchy at best, and the numbers are on the whole controlled by those who stand to make the most money from high prices, caused by global instability etc. I think that we just have to accept that the probability that we are all being fooled, is quite high.
lloyd, UK,
The author is right. There is no risk of us running out of oil; long before that ever happens, the price of oil will become so high that technologies we see as infeasible now will be comparatively cheaper. (By the way Alan #1, a huge number of the world's wealthiest executives are econOmists.)
David L., Los Angeles, USA
If you know the Book of Revelation...all of the oil appears to go to disaster recovery and the coming wars.
Mostly what the Book is about is God encouraging Christian revival amongst the nations.
It also gives nations a fore-warning so they can plan a bit better.
You ought to read the Book.
G. Gibson, Sydney, Australia
Did anyone not notice that this was more a political document rather than a factual analysis of Peak Oil? Mexican leftists, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez’s, Russia’s Putin and Nigeria, all countries where the American oil giants would love to take control and take all the profits.
DJF, Perth, Australia
High oil prices can affect the prices of shipped goods, everything from food to furniture. These things are shipped overseas by fuel-guzzling freighters, and then brought to stores via diesel powered semi-trucks. If the cost of shipping these items increases, the retail price will also go up.
Kevin, Philadelphia, PA
I live in Arkansas and there are drilling rigs all over the place due to the Fayetteville Shale they located. What about all the drilling in Oklahoma, Texas, and everywhere in the USA. Why do we have to always be so dependent on the overseas companies?
Dee, Conway, USA
If Econimists were right, the'd all be multi- millionaires. Can't see any of them on the Times Rich list, so they either talk crap or don't believe their own advice. Talk about a poisioned chalace !!
Alan, Newmarket, suffolk
"Peak Oil" doesn't say that we are going to reach the last drop of oil anytime soon. We aren't running out of oil, we are running out of cheap-to-access oil. The author says "Don't worry, there is plenty of oil left!" then goes on to list a bunch of reasons that we can't get to it. Great, we agree.
Alan Heckman, Manchester, UK
The point you are missing is that Brazil has made TWO enormous finds and it is the first results of new 'deep water' exploration. The easy oil is tapped but Brazil has proved that in harder to reach places there is Oil in abundance.
Kv, London,
I live in NYC and use public transportation. Let gas be $25 a gallon...I don't care. However, what we are running out of in the world is clean water because of the meat industry. I love all these hypocrites trying to be "green" by buying a Prius, then they drive it to a McDonalds drive through.
Ned Tompkins, Manhattan,
Stephen in Cambridge, I hope you're not teaching economics at my alma mater. Inflation is not caused by a price increasing - that is the tail wagging the dog. If petrol prices increase, we either buy less petrol or spend less elsewhere. Only if we then ask for more cash is it inflationary.
Tim, London,
Simple fact remains, if you cant pump oil out of the ground at a rate increasing by at least the increase in consumption, which, with OPEC capping barrels we cant, PRICES ARE SET TO RISE!
£1.50 a litre by July. Watch this space.
Sam Smith, Southport, UK
Irwin Stelzer was very late in discovering the reality of the effects of the credit crunch and remained relentlessly optimistic until being totally over-whelmed by what was happening around him.
He now seems to have focused his rose tinted spectacles on the oil situation.
Keith, Ashford, UK
unfortunately, your dreams outpace the realities in which we live.
sherri, Winnipeg, Canada
Those who attempt to debunk peak oil are always strongly criticized by reader comments. They are all short on facts and have a limited ability to comprehend the big picture. By the time they have even begun to join the dots... there are many more who can think conceptually in ways that they can not.
rick, sydney, australia
You neglected to mention that oil is being manufactured in plants right now today. It actually has been for a few years. Its made largely from slaughterhouse remains.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1125_031125_turkeyoil.html
trixter, amsterdam, netherlands
The Germans converted coal to oil in WWII. Oil shales and oil sands have vast amounts of untapped potential. And -oops- they just discovered another large field of oil off the coast of Brazil. Sorry, Charlie--we're not running out of oil...
Larry, Manchester, NH, USA
There's only two outcomes from the use of finite resuorce: 1st the production RATE will peak and then decline (peak oil) or all worldwide production will simply cease on the same day. The latter sounds rather ridiculous doesn't it.
George, Chicago, United States
The United States uses 70% of the oil it consumes for conversion to gasoline.If the complaing western economies converted their transportation policies from one centred on personal mobility(the car) to one based on electrically powered public transportation the problem of expensive oil would go away
Brian Eastwood, Petersburg Va, USA
If all the problems the author notes were suddenly to be resolved, world oil prices would still be at record highs and world oil production would still be flat or struggling to increase. He obviously prefers to keep his head in the sand. The awful truth is the easy oil is running out.
Robert Marston, Virginia Beach,
And if Amercia was not so profligate in its use of oil...
IF America had not invaded Iraq
IFoil shale reserves were not so difficult to operate.
IF most major Western oil companies did not have falling reserves.
IF Chinese demand was not rising 25%pa
Lots of IFs.. little substance.
Madasafish, Stoke on Trent, UK
The only (significant) data you present in your paper is the results from opinion polls. You say nothing about the actual quantity of oil left or how quickly it can be utilized. How am I to believe your arguments if you don't present any real evidence to back them up?
Joseph Basile, Worcester, MA, USA
There doesn't appear to be any large oil discovery in Guyana only an optimistic assessment by the US geological service. Tupi the Brazilian field may not be the mooted 8bn barrels as it hasn't been fully appraised. The 'enormous' Carioca field may only 300 million barrels according to Credit Swiss.
Andrew Evans, London, UK
I can not agree and dispute the basic premises on which these arguments are based. Firstly there is no mention of the demand/supply ratio which is the biggest problem. Secondly, it is becoming harder to extract oil from existing sources in a productive manner. Author - Sand - Head.
Sukru, London, UK
That oil will run out is as ludicrous as the climate scam. (Global warming morons are seriously considering the introduction of billions of pounds of sulfates into the atmosphere to "blot out" a percentage of sunlight.) The earth is more vast than your frightened minds comprehend. Oil is there.
Brian, Virginia, USA
@ Charles SR - the Brazil and Guyana finds are indeed massive. Brazil = 8bn barrels, Guyana = 15bn barrels. The largest new finds in recent years. Problem is, the demand is more massive. The Brazil find = 93 days of world demand, and the Guyana 174 days. And demand still grows faster. Do the sums.
Steve Logan, Norwich,
The author says that Saudi Arabia has announced they will not expand production and then concludes that this can only mean there are untapped fields that can be drilled. Has he personally surveyed its fields? No Western company has been able to test OPEC fields. We take OPEC at its word...
Brandon, St. Clair Shores, United States
There have just been some huge finds offshore in Brazil and Guyana in South America. Both are expected to come on stream next year or 2010.
Charles S R, London, England
A minor quibble over an otherwise elucidating article: Any Shool child could (or, at least should) be able to correct Stelzer's theory of inflation. Increasing oil prices equate to increased fuel / energy / plastics prices which are then necessarily passed on to increase ALL prices = Inflation.
Steven, Cambridge, UK
Richard Bassett - Try typing CERA global decline rate into google and you will see that it is about 5%. Fatih Birol of the IEA says it is 8% without technology 4.8 with in an FT article of last year.
Andrew Evans, London, UK
The inconvenient truth is that world population growth, oil use and global warming are inextricably linked.
The article fails to mention that population growth will accelerate the other two factors.
With oil production bell curve expected to peak in around 5 years time the clock is ticking.
TP, Egham, UK
There's plenty of oil left in the ground for over 150 years and that's just the oil we know of, huge tracts of Iraq remain unexplored. It's scarcity at any one time will depend on how quickly producer states are prepared to extract it and more importantly refine it. Go nuclear for electricity!
Stewart, London,
Thank you Mr Stelzer for the first sane commentary I have read or heard on the 'peak oil' story since reading Greg Palast's book 'Armed Madhouse'.
Paul, Coventry,
Irwin Steltzer is a most readable and generally balanced economist. But he knows little about the reserves of oil actually there to be exploited. He should research the writings of Dr Ken Deffeyes, a retired Princeton academic and former specialist geophysicist for a number of major oil companies.
George Lyndley, Epping, England
It's amazing to me how many people write in with comments like the one that "oil fields are declining at 5% a year" which is patently ridiculous. Stelzer is of course limited in his arguments by his reliance on facts, knowledge and truth in the way that some other's are not.
Richard Bassett, West Vancouver, Canada
Is it any wonder that money markets are in such a state when economists are this stupid. It is not how much oil is left ,it is how quickly is flows or can be pumped out. If 86 mbpd is what can be extracted then we have to share or out bid others for our oil.
kevin, aylesbury,
One very incorrect point here is that higher oil prices aren't contributing to higher prices for goods. There's not a single product you can buy the price of which isn't affected directly or indirectly by the price of oil.
The added cost of production has to come from SOMEONE's pocket.
Eric, Fredericksburg, VA, USA
The world's oil fields are currently declining at 5% a year. For us to continue using 86 million barrels a day we must bring on stream the equivalent of 4 Saudi Arabias of new production in ten years. The problem is the enormity of our oil addiction is not sustainable under any circumstance.
Andrew Evans, London, UK
Shows a complete misunderstanding of peak oil. At peak oil, there is still roughly half the oil in the ground, far from running out. It is about production and the inability to support a growing economy, the problems that we see emerging.
Andrew Reye, Brisbane, Australia
Peak oil flow isn't solely about reserves albeit an important factor. Production isn't keeping up with demand, no natter the reason, including some the author mentions. New oil is harder to get and cost more ==peak flow.
Terry, Stratford , USA
The world's oil fields currently in production are declining at 4.8% a year (it's 8% without the new technology). This means that in 10 years time we will have to bring on stream the equivalent of 4 new Saudia Arabias just for oil production to remain at the level it is now.
Andrew Evans, London, UK
It amazes me how economists "Know" so many things.
Bill, Boston,
Peak oil has nothing to do with oil running out. Peak oil means that you are at the top of the bell curve for production RATE.
John Freedman, Ajax,
Oil isn't running out? 1000 billion barrels left and falling. Usage 30 billion barrels/annum and rising. There are no significant new finds and boy the big players are trying (article is completely incorrect on untapped resources). That would make a cosy 30ish years left. Maximum. Dream on Stelzer.
Steve Logan, Norwich,
I remember Irwin saying back in 03, that after the war in Iraq, cheap oil would be flooding the markets. I didn't think that would happen. I thought it would drive oil prices crazy and make the Russians, who are not Belgians, rich.Now every oil producing lunatic has a bigger stick to beat us with.
killian, Dublin,
With such nonsense coming from an american 'expert' it is little wonder that the world's economies are in a mess.
All resouces will eventually run out. The stupidity of using food for fuelling our cars is suicide. Impacting on world food shortages and increasing strife.
john b, leeds, uk
Oils expensive in lots of ways.............................
its about time to find alternatives.
I'm getting bored with these money grabbers.
M walters, Nr worcs, wocs
Unfortunately its will always the Left Wing of our human race that will spoil things for everyone else (Ultimately, including the poor and needy).
fortunately, the Liberal/Left are almost always on the wrong side of history.
It makes me wonder what motivates these people - towards failure.
Saul, manchester, england
What do you doom-and-gloom Peak Oil cuckoos plan on doing when the oil "runs out"?
I say that when the day of reckoning comes, the alfalfa eating greenpeace enviro-whackos shall be the first to perish.
Niprac, Stoneham, Canada
The world is running out of oil, completely by 2075, but as soon as global oil production begins to decline (probably this year), the world will enter a continuing and worsening economic depression. This is the conclusion of scientific and government studies: http://www.peakoilassociates.com
Clifford J. Wirth, Manchester, USA
"Another myth: we are running out of oil." Only an ideologically driven economist could believe such a patently irrational proposition.
Oil is a finite physical resource. The evidence from petroleum geologists is that we've drained most of the easy-to-extract ('cheap') oil - i.e. are running out.
Colin Moorcraft, Lisbon , Portugal
“…our children's children will have a miserable existence is the belief that the World's resources are infinite.”
But the world’s resources are effectively infinite, for they in practice consist of two categories:
A: the raw materials (coal, oil….whatever) and
B: the intellectual capital applied to A
Of these A is passive, and until B is applied to it is merely dross. B is infinite and, beyond a very near horizon, its actions cannot be anticipated (i.e. we have no way of knowing how it will be applied in 20 years time). B is also dynamic: we can say with certainty that it will – in the relatively near future – be applied to raw materials undreamt of (as useful) today, but we cannot predict what they will be.
Oil? There is enough to serve our needs and those of our children. Beyond that it is not for us to plan for our grandchildren’s’ ingenuity, for theirs will surely transcend ours - so long as we do not leave to them the intellectual straitjacket of central planning.
PJ, Stafford, England
The main producing countries although they have produced billions of barrels of oil, say that they have exactly the same reserves as they started with!
They are lying, and it is getting more and more costly to extract the limited amount of oil we have left, in energy as well as money.
D.Martin, Bristol,
There is a massive amount of oil left in the world it's just that exploration was curtailed during the times of low oil prices.
Due to the price hikes exploration is now on the increase especially in out of the way places like the Falkland Islands.
Paul, Worthing, UK
Unless the supply is infinite then oil is clearly running out!
David J Forder, Southampton, UK
Irwin shows there is no shortage of oil but a market failure resulting from a geopolitical desire to constrain supply.
Western countries have to respond by reducing demand for imported energy.....stating the obvious, I know but where is the OECD "drive" to co operate in realising that goal.
calum mcneill, Portsoy, Scotland
The only way to ensure the remaining oil is retrieved is to create the kind of control and command system that would have made Stalin proud. Political turmoil is the direct result of the oil and very little sense in certain regions of the planet. Mixing communism and capitalism produces fascism.
kevin, Lincoln, UK
The guy from Scotland , no not Mr Brown seems to sum everything up.It is an illusion,instead of getting richer,everyone is getting poorer.No wonder the Chinese are venturing out in space.He who controls the satallites,effectively controls the plenet,even if he is poor.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Oil is still running out. As it has been since it was first utilised. The reason our children and our children's children will have a miserable existence is the belief that the World's resources are infinite. This is why the sea, sky and landscape are all in a pickle. Thanks for your unwise words.
Colin, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
I have rarely read such nonsense. All oil fields peak and then decline - at varying rates. The sum total of all oil fields in the world is bound to behave in a similar manner.
Currently, we are consuming each year around 6 times more oil than we are discovering. Nice try Mr. Stelzer.
Alfred, Ryde, UK
Brilliant! You are correct, the oil market is the single most misunderstood market of all. I would add that the sum of human suffering, misery, and deaths that directly flow from this likely dwarves all other issues save for religion. Bravo. Malthusians, shouldnt these be "evolved" away?
Mike, Newmarket, UK
Isn't it obvious there is only a finite amount of oil on the planet.It took millions of years to form but will almost certainly run out in the next hundred years if we expect the population to grow to 9 billion by 2050.We'll have to look a lot further than the moon to find any more,a lotlot further
stephen hulton, eure, france
Hi,
Natural recourses have become a commodity governed under the rules of the market. The secrets of reserves are elusive to a society of turning the tap on and there is water.
Regards Dr. Terence Hale.
Terence Hale, zandvoort, Holland
I hope you understand economics better than you understand the "oil markets."
I would gladly respond to your column in greater detail, however given the limited amount of characters, this is not possible.
Lee Rylee
lee Rylee, Lahaina, USA
Total possible wealth = the planet's resources. Use up half the planet's resource and there is half the wealth remaining.
Use up all the resource and there is no wealth left. The illusion of 'generating' wealth will unravel as the economy contracts, a result of continually shrinking oil supplies.
David Ede, Edinburgh, Scotland
Since most goods are shipped from manufacturer to distributor to retailer
to customer and all of these modes of distribution burn petrol, it is safe to assume that the increase in shipping
cost are passed on to the consumer.
If that is not inflationary then I don't know what is.
Robert Gaines, oakland, USA
Oil only 'peaked' in the '60s as oil had only been so important for 60 odd years.
Fossil fuels are not the answer but they are not running out by any stretch of the imagination.
There are immediate alternatives but until the stock is depleted these alternatives will not be accomodated.
ok?
Kip Hambis, London,
My Lawyer calls these "Bad Facts". Like when his defendant is seen doing the crime by the minister and his entire congregation. Fortunately any good economist knows that market signals will fix these bad facts
Daniel Swanson, Potterville MI, USA
Sovereign wealth funds are an interesting new hybrid. At present they are around a trillion dollars, but they are flexible and provide a new component in the age old battle between capital and statehood. Management trumps shareholders - knowledge is power. Why lie? Simply ignore the truth.
glenn schaefer, holbrook, USA
I notice that no mention is made of the inconvenient fact that oil discoveries peaked in the mid-1960s, and that ever since 1980 the world has been using oil faster than it has been discovered.
Martin Hanson, Auckland, New Zealand
You imply that the amount of reserves is paramount in determining our energy situation. Peak oil advocates would agree that it is flow rates & not reserves that need to be analysed. Mexico & Russia at their own admission admit peak output, Saudi Arabia is declining, where will the growth come from?
Ben, London, UK