David Wighton, Business Editor
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Given that the number of mortgages approved in March was down by almost half on last year, you might have suspected that things had gone a bit quiet for Britain’s housebuilders.
But investors were still taken aback by the gloom that enveloped the sector yesterday.
Persimmon, the country’s biggest housebuilder, revealed that sales were down almost a quarter in the first four months and that in the past three weeks, normally among the strongest of the year, they had fallen further.
Mike Farley, Persimmon chief executive, blamed the tightening in the mortgage market saying that for the first time in his memory there were simply not enough mortgages for the houses available.
There doesn’t seem to be much point building houses if potential buyers can’t finance their purchase. So Persimmon has decided not to start work on any new sites until there are more mortgages.
Unlike in India, where housebuilders have started giving away cars to drum up business, their British counterparts have, so far, resisted the temptation to offer big discounts. If others follow Persimmon’s lead by cutting production, it could help to prevent the downturn in house prices from turning into a collapse.
But Persimmon shares tumbled and rival Barratt Development’s fell even more on speculation that it will launch a rights issue.
Mr Farley called on the Government to scrap stamp duty for first-time buyers. But this sounded as if he was just going through the motions. If there isn’t mortgage finance around, stamp duty is really neither here nor there.
Despite the Bank of England’s move to pump liquidity into the system last week, there is no sign of mortgage conditions easing.
Even if things do improve, Mark Hake, at Merrill Lynch, doubts that it will bring much short-term respite.
This is because there is growing evidence that potential buyers are postponing purchases in anticipation of further price falls. Housebuyers are also nervous about the possibility of losing their jobs.
John White, Persimmon’s chairman, went as far as to say that present conditions were possibly even worse than in the early 1990s.
That is surely going a bit far. Apart from the state of the mortgage market, which will not remain frozen for ever, the industry faced bigger problems in the early 1990s. In particular, employment remains robust with the number of people claiming jobless benefit at its lowest level for more than three decades. Unemployment is about half of what it was during the worst of the last housing recession.
Houses are still more affordable, in terms of the mortgage payments as a percentage of disposable income, than at the peak of the last cycle.
The number of new houses being built is lower than in the late 1980s, while demand has been underpinned by strong growth in new households and immigration.
Unless the Government curbs immigration, which seems unlikely, or relaxes planning controls, which is equally improbable, the medium term outlook for supply and demand looks healthy for the housebuilders.
A further plus this time is that the industry is much more concentrated and is likely to be more disciplined, in terms of price and volumes, than it was in the 1990s.
Indeed there must be a chance that it becomes more concentrated still as the sharp falls in share prices make some of the smaller builders attractive to the likes of Persimmon.
But, just like its potential house buyers, Persimmon might be well-advised to wait for prices to fall further.
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Housing Associations are having land thrown at them at the moment. Therefor this should lead to more affordable housing
marci, birmingham, west mids
As i work for a housebuilder i can assure you that nobody builds a house for 100k then sells it for 200k..... frederick, London.
It might cost 100k to build but the remainder is spent on buying the land and the running company. Try housebuilders make 12-18% profit.
Stuart, Glasgow, Scotland
The rental sector is far to small compared with our European competitors. A mobile workforce depends on a dynamic rental sector not a housing sector stuck in outmoded ideas of ownership for life or beyond. Building pyramids is not gonna be the answer to todays problems - when will we learn?
kevin, Lincoln, UK
When the stuff hits the fan, if mortgages become abundant again and buyers are desperate to buy,from an ever dwindled supply, the pent-up demand for homes will presumably escalate prices again, perhaps to record highs.
Piggy Kruger, Bridgwater, UK
The Empoyment figures are no area of comfort in this Financial crisis. It is those in employment who have borrowed to the maximum of the value of their asstes and those asset values are now falling or in question. This is not just about mortgages but unsecured ,secured loans, credit and store cards.
john wright, clacton on sea, England
Unemployment is a trailing indicator. As long as "buy to letters" are allowed interest only mortgages, first time buyers will be priced out of the market. The government's affordable housing policy is a tax on development which makes dwellings more expensive for all of us who don't qualify.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
No mortgages because there's no space-- England is full. My wife and kids are leaving for Orleans in France next year, my neighbours and friends are leaving for Spain, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Italy, Sweden, even Norway, Finland, Portugal and Belgium. You have space there, and you can breathe.
Mark C, Bradford, England, United Kingdom
Remember Brown building 3 million extra dwellings.As he has lived a cloistered life he has never experienced the apparent anomaly of when prices are rising there is a shortage of property and when as now the housing market is struggling supply miraculously increases. Another Brown miscalculation.
Tony, London,
All the comments miss the importance this Government, in it's third term has played overall in the present situation.
All speak about confidence referring to the mortgage sector. The new home buyer now, on top of the new stamp duties, has to have 9 months mortgage repayments in reserve.
Terry G, Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
As usual, no mention in the media of the building of social housing. From a non-mortgage private tenant with children who still cant a property where they work,perhaps the local councils should buy these available properties and fill the gap made by the right to buy.
deecoen, Hastings , East Sussex
Here's an idea. Build a house for the 80k that it costs. Sell it for 100k making a healthy 20% profit. Legislate to deter buy to letters from buying them all. Problem solved! Oh dear, I've just realised I made the mistake of expecting our govt to do the right thing!
Neil, Birmingham, U.K
Very few of the trade comentators in this debate seem blinkered to what remains potentialy the most severe downturn in house values for decades. That is SENTIMENT.
If, for a moment you could put yourself in the shoes of a first time buyer, would you buy now? What is the common sense answer ?
David Nammory, Liverpool,
How many times have I heard this silly argument about low unemployment level favouring house prices? what matters, as any financial analyst knows, is not the static level, low or high, but the dynamic trend, increasing or decreasing.
Frederic Dodin, Camb, UK
"Why build houses if the mortgages aren't available?" There are plenty of mortgages available with a sensible deposit, and houses are needed for the growing population. A return to less reckless lending standards should be applauded. Doh....
Graham, London,
"Houses are still more affordable, in terms of the mortgage payments as a percentage of disposable income"
Shouldn't one factor in the inflation rate at the time? Even if this percentage (payments/disp inc) was higher in the 90s, it erodes faster with a higher rate of inflation, no?
Grant Galbraith, London,
So the strategy is to suppress supply hoping demand for limited supply will increase and as a result prices will maintain. Idiots. Hw about building affordable homes instead ? New homes are overpriced - and remember these "property clubs" buying up new build estates en masse are ancient history
Roarke, Wembley, Uk
Why build houses indeed, especially on virgin land, smothering over an already asphyxiated earth? Money, money, money, doesn't seem to -- as sung in Cabaret -- make the world go around, but to strangle it.
eugene, heidelberg, germany
The UK's muddle-along housing strategy is a disaster. Either accept the US model where booms get followed by slumps, or build more affordable housing and regulate the excess profits of builders and owners. You cant have free-for-all when the market is booming and intervention when thing turn sour.
geoff nairn, donostia, spain
But the Government is about to demand construction thousands of dwellings to satisfy its Eco Town initiative! The big failure of the British house market was the lack of legislation to control buy to let a trade conceived to try and make up for the Chancellor's pensions debacle.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
Why not build houses that people can afford. I don't need 4 bathrooms. A good house costs approx. 50-100K to build but they think they need 200K profit. I am never buying a house it's just a rip-off all round.
Frederick, London, UK
When the country's run by idiots
With the years of greed from banks and
the sheep who think house prices will only ever go up
Is it any wonder we're now in this mess ?
JB, London, England
Houses not selling? Put them up for auction. get real!
michael clarke, kensington, london
My own hope is that the problems builders are now having will mean that I will soon be able to persuade some of them to deign to quote for maintenace jobs on the house I already have. I haven't been able to get a painter and decorator for about 20 years.
Tam Earl-Aine, cheltenham,
whilst the govrnments of britain leaves th ehouse stock to chance qand speculation te british public willbe chips in a game winner takes all namly theproperty developer. Afordable housing was the buzz word of the last ten years with loans at 5 to 7 times income.
michael, cahersiveen>adams towns, madness
I thought one of nuLabours boasts was that there would be no more "boom and bust" economics under them.We've had 10 years of boom and now they'll be one hell of a bust.I still believe prices are roughly 30% over valued and that sellers will have to be more realistic in their valuations.
Mike, Dunstable, England
"the number of people claiming jobless benefit at its lowest level for more than three decades."
This is misplaced optimism. The jobless figures are low solely because of manipulation of the statistics. Perhaps as many as two and a half million being classed as disabled when they're not.
Polly Parish, tenby, wales
You must be ignoring fuel bills, transport costs and food costs, all of which are far, far higher than the 90's. Also, unsecured debt, student loan financing by parents, job security heading south, inflation heading up and a lack of mortgages.
This bubble will continue to burst for some time!
Dean, Cardiff, Wales
Quote: "In particular, employment remains robust" - but for how long? Employment levels are a lagging indicator - unemployment is bound to rise as people are laid off and Government spending stagnates. As for immigration - it better had be curbed!
Richard, Worcester, England
The house market can't be view in isolation, rather it is a part of humanity and the way we exist. Very high employment has desastrous economic consequences. As do the masive inflation of food, commodity, and fuel prices. Humanity is revaluing its economy, until it has, we won't be moving homes.
Ian Parker, Wigan,
Look - they've had a good run haven't they?We all have.But the game's up now.The scam's over. And be honest - we all knew. Have you heard anyone in the past ten years discussing house prices without someone saying 'Mad isn't it?'
Free car?Some houses still wouldn't sell if it was a Bugatti Veyron.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
This is like the the early 1990s all over again but the causes of the problem are different; the results however will be the same. There are going to be a lot of redundancies in the construction industry and house prices are going to go through the floor. The risky lending days are over.
Chris, Oxfordshire,
I accept that businesses exist to make money and maximise profits. But if that concept was changed to reflect an honest level of profit and not the thievery level that has been used whilst selling the brick box then the developers may still be selling!
Keith, Newcastle, England
Why would anyone in their right mind pay £200K for a brick box that costs no more than £50K to build? Only when that balance is restored will any sensible banker lend money with "brick boxes" as collateral.
Persimmon are dead-right... "We stop building until we know what a house costs !".
Pedro, Stratford,
Why not build affordable houses?Mortgages are still out there, only at sensible prices.Maybe the builders shouldn't have been giving false valuations to lenders as was the case with many new build BTL flats.They have been pocketing mikkions from this.What goes round comes round.
stephen hulton, eure, france