David Wighton: Business commentary
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The fact that the Bank of England resisted calls for a half-point cut in interest rates does not mean it is relatively sanguine about the prospects for the economy. On the contrary, the quarter-point cut suggests that it is very worried indeed. To cut rates at all, when the short-term outlook for inflation is so bad, implies a very gloomy view of economic growth.
Yesterday brought further evidence of inflationary pressures. A poll by the British Chambers of Commerce showed the highest proportion of companies planning to raise prices in more than ten years. A jump in import prices in February lifted the annual increase to 10.4 per cent, the highest since 1993.
The surge in the oil price and the continuing weakness of sterling means there is no respite in sight. But at the same time the outlook for growth is darkening by the day. Retailers meeting in Barcelona have been grumbling over the tapas with Sir Philip Green saying the market is as tough as he has seen it.
Against this background, the Bank was probably right not to go for a full half-point. That would have represented a big change in the gradualist strategy that the Bank has previously pursued.
It risked sending the markets a signal that the Bank knew something we don't about the economy and that it could no longer afford to be that worried about inflation.
That could easily have led to an increase in inflation expectations.
Perhaps the most worrying news yesterday was a survey of pay settlements that indicates mounting pay pressures this month.
The decision yesterday was a very difficult balancing act for the Bank. These trends suggest that next month's could be trickier still.
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That's it. It's all over. We're all going to die! This is the end, my friend. Ces't la vie. Au revoir. Et Bon nuit.
RS, Kondon, England
The pound is dropping like a stone against all hard currencies other than the abysmal US$. This is the consequence of the financial crisis initiated by the sub prime rubbish the banks bought. Nobody has confidence in the pound any more. As we import most of what we buy, this huge drop from around 1.5EUR to 1EUR to 1 pound will be hugely inflationary and keeping or even raising the interest rate will be a drop in the ocean against this inevitable large scale increase in prices.
Following the Americans, the rate should be dropped to 3% with an order to lenders to pass on say 1.5% to borrowers and keep 1% for themselves. This will enable some people to keep their houses, which will avoid loss to both parties from repossession. Common sense really. At the end of the day, evicting people is a false economy.
Findlay, Lanark,
In fairness to the BOE and ECB they have not done much wrong in recent years. Neither of them allowed rates to reach the lows achieved by the US post 2002. Both raised rates after that point albeit a little slowly. The fact is much of their remit on inflation is determined globally and there's only so much they can do. We're really paying the price now for the excesss brought about by policy determined in the US and Japan. The one built up the unsustainable debt and the other provided the cheap change to fund it. Even China was only a side issue to that. Unfortunately, I doubt the Us and Japan will change their ways.
For this reason even though I am a long standing opponent of of being in the EU I rthink we should now seriously plan to join completely by adopting the Euro at the earliest possible viable moment.
Clearly we are now too 'small' to manage our position vis a vis these larger economies and will benefit from the leaverage of the Euro.
SC, Preston,
The delusion of independance for the BoE has now been stripped away. A cut was ordered by the PM the Bank obliged, against all its instincts.
Another myth is destroyed.
andy, london,
The policies of supporting USA has brought the decline of our economy,we better have the policies only national intrusts.
wazdan, leeds, uk
Base rate cuts are making us all poorer by devaluing the pound, hence driving up food and fuel prices. Mortgagees are a minority in this country and only a minority of that minority will benefit in any way from a base rate cut.
It appears that the BoE is more intent on driving down the pound to parity with the euro, than caring about falling living standards for the majority in this country, which well get worse as the pound falls further.
Progressive rate rises to a more neutral rate of 7% to 8% are needed to protect living standards in this country.
Paul, Coventry,
The BOE may be worried about inflation (and rightly, since the effective inflation rate felt by most households over the last year has been nearer 10% than 2%) but it is surely wrong to hold off further rate cuts.
The inflation so far is not in wages fuelling a spending boom, but in prices such as energy bills and tax which are cutting the discretionary spending of most households, and this is therefore anti-inflationary.
It is one of the economic nonsenses of the BOE to believe that energy price and tax rises are by definition inflationary.
Another is that a single lever (interest rates) can control both inflation and growth.
The impact of rising costs must either involve reduced spending (and thus growth) or else wage rises to reclaim purchasing power.
Either way the BOE is in trouble. Another worry is the decoupling of mortgage rates and LIBOR from the base rate. Is their one lever to stop working too?
The only solution to all this is to take money-creation back in house.
Tony, Bristol,
they're between a rock and a hard place and their only tool is a tap... it was all going to come to an ugly end sooner or later when Labour started messing with what went into the inflation figures... inflation has been artificially low for years now with the true costs to the country/consumer not featuring in it...
paulc, gloucester,
Interest rate cuts drive the Pound down and as we have a net balance payments deficit imports will cost more than any benefits gained from exports. Any raw materials used to make those exports will also cost more. Cost of living increases will cause labour unrest and eventually wage increases. If the rest of the World is also suffering how are we going to increase exports, even if we could make them?? I do not believe that driving the currency down has any benefit.
David, Hereford, UK