David Wighton: Business Commentary
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Where commercial property goes, so goes housing. If that old relationship holds true in this cycle, house prices could be in for a very nasty fall indeed.
The same conditions of cheap money that led to the boom in house prices have also fuelled very strong growth in commercial property values in recent years.
Prices were further buoyed by an influx of new money from pension funds wanting to diversify from equities after the dot-com crash.
This mirrored the surge of new money into the housing market with the growth of buy-to-let investors.
Commercial property prices rose by 37 per cent in the three years to June 2007, according to the Investment Property Databank (IPD). This meant that price inflation for Britain’s £450 billion of shops, offices and industrial warehousing was running at 11 per cent a year.
The credit crunch hit commercial property at the same time as it hit housing. Yet, the impact has been swifter and steeper. Funding has dried up, just as it has for home mortgage borrowers, and there has been a wave of forced sellers as commercial property funds have had to sell buildings to meet a surge in investors’ demands for their money back.
Since June last year the average value of commercial property has fallen by 15 per cent, according to IPD. The actual prices being paid, however, are down by nearer 20 per cent.
The property derivatives market is currently pricing in a fall of 18 per cent for the whole of 2008. That would mean prices would have fallen 26 per cent between June last year and the end of December this year.
As in the housing market, sales volumes have slowed dramatically. According to the agent Cushman & Wakefield, only £2.83 billion of Central London property changed hands in the first quarter, down by more than a quarter on last year.
The optimists say the worst is over. They argue that price falls have been driven solely by the credit crunch and that strong tenant demand will now act as a cushion. Unlike in the last property crash, there is no large oversupply of commercial space. City office vacancy rates are under 5 per cent, compared with a 15 per cent of total space empty in the Square Mile in 1992.
This may not last, however. Banks are cutting jobs in the City and retailers are feeling the squeeze from a slowing economy.
In housing, there is no oversupply, at least not yet . . .
Aside from city-centre flats in Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, there is still assumed to be a shortage of residential property. But if buy-to-let investors turn sellers, that could change.
The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the UK was one of the countries most vulnerable to a further fall in house prices because so much of the previous rise could not be explained by “fundamental” factors. In English, that means it was particularly frothy.
Historically, commercial and residential property prices have tracked each other fairly closely. The drop in commercial property prices is the sharpest since records began more than 20 years ago — sharper even than the property crash of the early 1990s.
The house price optimists say that this time it will be different, because employment is still healthy and there is no oversupply.
But the commercial property market shows what a real credit crunch can do on its own.
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As the Cambridge Econometrics Centre (in this paper in May 2001) said that house prices were 21% overvalued, I wonder wht they say they are now?
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
A substantial fall in house prices would be not in the least nasty for those great many people currently without a house and in difficulties in affording one.
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
The mistaken assumption about supply and demand in the UK
rests with our now staggering army of migrant workers. Are our hard working army of eastern europeans living five to a bedroom
in order to save up enough money to put down a deposit on a one bedroom suburban flat? Are they buggery, they will migrant back east with their money and buy a decent house with no mortgage.
The impending recession will certainly hasten the exodus. Another myth is that the government will come to the rescue, the government has inflated earnings and rental incomes via unsustainable public sector employment and it is in no position to increase housing benefit to sustain current rental yields.
Mark, Epping, Essex
The other major difference to previous recessions is that before we still had a manufacturing industry that would eventually drag us out of recession.
Today where is the recovery going to come from? China, India plus a dozen others can now compete in services as well as manufacturing and assembly.
Sorry folks but it's a long way to the bottom and an even further way to the next recovery.
Bill Thomas, London,
The overview is of shrinking national assets at a
time of great debt. What business man would get
invovled in circumstances like that ? These firms
that are selling equity packages..............................
what must be going through their minds ?
A bit of leveling out over three years ?
The housing market has been soo destorted that my
father would now have to treble his income to buy his
OWN house. The destortions have been massive
and to say that anything can rescue it , is just
laughable in my book.
People come here for our easy money and when that
runs out.......................................................
who cares about the rented sector.
All the arrows point down, to me.
M walker, Nr Bromsgrove, worcs
Good article - the most important words are: "there is still assumed to be a shortage of residential property." Sadly the assumption is wrong.
Sure, in desire terms, there is a shortage of big houses (every family wants one), but in financial terms there is not (not every family can afford one - so flats will do). What matters is financial demand - and that is currently no-existent.
Equally the idea that physically there are not enough properties is a fallacy - as evidenced by the still large imbalance between property prices and rental yields (and the absence of masses camping on the streets). This is what the IMF meant when it talked about a lack of fundamentals.
Rents are not rising anything like fast enough - if at all - to close this gap (which shows the physical need for more space is limited) and so prices must fall.
There is also a huge supply of underused housing - both second homes and a million empty properties that will way on the market for sometime.
Huw Sayer, Norwich, England
Excellent synopsis and then a response from T.Miller.
But three other huge differences to 1992 -
1. UK has very little large scale manufacturing left that used to give a leadtime buffer.
2 Double the reliance on a service economy that can and will be turned off almost over night.
3.Influences from the rest of the world having essentially the same intellectual capabilities, or at least can get to it instantly, being globally connected in real time.
Human nature is greed and opportunism
- now the situation has turned and certainly much more abruptly than in 1989, it is more like 1973 - it will be those with real cash which become King and able to call the shots.
But how many others of the T.Miller ilk are out there, of this current wealth creation generation?
My father taught me a painful lesson when I was young about debt - you are no longer in control of your destiny.
I hope, so did many others.
G Topp, Toulouse, France
"strong tenant demand will now act as a cushion"?
No. In both sectors - domestic and business - supply now exceeds demand.
In a business world where expansion has slowed, causing firms to stay put, and businesses are failing at a steadily rising rate, occupation of rental premises is, and has been for over six months, dropping. I personally know two business landlords who have dropped from 90% occupancy to below 50%. Not isolated cases either - just look around...
In the domestic sector, top-heavy with small 'buy to let' landlords, prices are actually falling and unoccupied premises are staying unoccupied. Again - simply look around you...
Six months ago I was looking for rented accommodation and, finding something suitable was no problem. I told the agent the rental was slightly above my budget though, and with no hesitation he immediately offered a 20% reduction. In the meantime two other tenants vacated in the last 3 months and, their flats remain empty despite all efforts.
Chris, St Leonards on sea, UK
What a good article, straight taking and straight reporting. I was a property investor, held commercial as well as residential. I got out in 1988 and again in 2006, I can't believe so many people in the UK still think that property is a one way bet. The higher the gains, the bigger the falls. It takes a time to happen, the smart money got out a year ago or more. I knew a long list of bankrupt investors, the banks having pulled the rugs.
This time round I am sure that it will be longer with bigger falls. There is so much factual bad evidence which I doubt I could fit in this box. Unanployment next, just to complete the list. I don't include a supply shortage as some like to spout on about, in 1992 I saw two 7 bed houses in Wentworth & St Georges hill fail to sell in auction for 270,000. No one wanted to buy and very few had the funds, now funding and the lack of it is part of the problem. Lets just see how many buy to lets come to the market shall we.
T Miller, Oxted, Surrey