Gary Duncan: Economic view
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For much of Britain, the City is another country, if not another world. On the
average Briton’s consciousness, the Square Mile is mapped out as terra
incognita. As the increasingly scary events of the credit crisis have
unfolded, this lack of understanding has mingled with fear of the unknown to
fuel suspicion of the mysterious, and seemingly now dangerous, black arts of
the City’s money men.
It has become a commonplace observation, meanwhile, to point to a supposedly
yawning reality gap between the Square Mile’s present, ever-deepening woes
and purportedly more benign conditions in the “real economy” across the rest
of the UK.
The dubious implication is that the City can be left to reap the financial
whirlwind sown by its own greed and irresponsibility, while the rest of us
sit out the storm in relative security.
The Bank of England Governor lent some credence to this view last week,
pointing to the “remarkable resilience”, so far at least, of consumer
spending and employment, and agreeing there is a sharp division of economic
experience between the City and the real economy.
Mervyn King did not quite endorse the idea that the Square Mile can somehow be
quarantined as a sort of financial plague island, while the rest of Britain
remains immune from global financial pestilence. Yet the Governor sought to
draw a line between the Bank’s policy moves to tackle the root causes of the
credit squeeze blighting the markets, and action to address wider dangers to
the economy as a whole. He argued that the first was largely a question of
lack of liquidity that called for specific measures, while interest rate
cuts to fend off any threat to the wider economy should be seen as separate.
It was “absolutely vital to distinguish clearly”, these two sets of problems
and responses, he said.
Mr King’s desire to draw this distinction is understandable while the Bank
continues to be vexed by what he calls the “difficult balancing act” between
conflicting pressures from persistent inflation and vulnerable growth.
With the Bank still deeply wary of aggressive interest rate cuts as soaring
food and fuel costs continue to stoke price pressures, insistence that the
credit crunch calls for separate and different remedies helps Mr King and
his colleagues to hold the line against demands for sharply lower rates.
Unfortunately, the idea that the financial world and the real economy can
exist in separate orbits, with little influence on each other, is a forlorn
hope. Indeed, two events in the past week have made it all too clear that
these two worlds now threaten to collide with potentially explosive results,
and severe fallout for all of us.
The intensity of the influence of the financial and “real world” spheres on
each other was underlined by Friday’s report from Nationwide Building
Society of a fifth consecutive monthly fall in house prices.
News of this latest blow to homeowners, which cut annual growth in house
prices to a 12-year low of just 1.1 per cent, came as the funding drought in
money markets compelled three leading lending institutions to raise mortgage
rates, despite the Bank’s cuts in base rates.
With outright year-on-year falls in house prices set to become grim reality as
soon as next month, and the likelihood that the credit crunch will mean that
home loans become scarcer and still more costly, these events raised the
threat that Britain could be gripped by a vicious circle similar to that
afflicting America.
Negative developments in financial markets and the real economy now threaten
to feed on each other, with falling house prices battering property market
sentiment, cutting demand and making lenders still more cautious, depressing
house prices yet further. The downward spiral risks being intensified as a
housing slump then saps consumer spending, weakening growth, imperilling
jobs and adding to strains on institutions as more borrowers default.
The stark reality is that far from being somehow separate and distinct, the
fates of Britain’s financial sector and the real economy have been, and
remain, intimately bound up.
As Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, suggests, for the past decade both spheres
have thrived as the financial sector provided the easy credit that fuelled a
boom in domestic demand and asset prices. That, in turn, sustained City
optimism over strong returns, made lenders feel secure to carry on lending
with a casual attitude to risk, and made borrowers feel safe to keep on
borrowing. “The financial excesses and real economy excesses of recent years
are two sides of the same coin,” Mr Saunders says.
Now, the symbiotic relationship of the financial world and the real economy is
turning toxic, as the virtuous cycle of credit-fuelled economic expansion
goes into reverse.
Worse still, as Mr Saunders says, the excesses of recent times have left a
legacy of record indebtedness for companies and households, steep interest
and repayment costs, depleted savings and stretched asset prices. These
leave Britain exposed to the credit squeeze’s imminent impact.
Citigroup’s calculations reveal how, after years of living beyond our means,
the combined deficit of UK nonfinancial companies and households – the
excess of what we spend over what we earn in income and profits - has leapt
to 3.3 per cent of GDP, more than double the 2006 level, and the highest
since 1989.
British households’ savings rate last year plunged to just 2.9 per cent of
incomes, the lowest since 1959, while companies have now blown the big cash
piles built early this decade. Repayment costs on borrowings for both
households and companies are now the highest since the early 1990s.
Years of financial sector largesse have left the rest of us deep in the red,
and both the financial world and the real economy are now deeply, and
similarly, vulnerable as a result.
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