Gary Ducan, Economics Editor
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The global credit crisis and the US economic upheavals that are driving it appear to have entered a new, more dangerous phase.
Last week's relentless spate of tribulations for the world's financial markets, culminating in an emergency bailout of Bear Stearns, the stricken investment bank, marked a scary escalation of events.
Little wonder, then, that the markets are pinning their hopes on tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Reserve for some respite from the deluge of grim news, and a further restorative dose of interest rate cuts.
Wall Street is hoping that the Fed's latest tonic will come in the form of another aggressive three-quarter-point reduction in official rates, and perhaps even a cut of a full percentage point. The Fed will very probably fulfil these expectations.
Yet any market euphoria that greets this near-inevitable decision should be regarded as what Alan Greenspan, the Fed's former Chairman, called “irrational exuberance”.
Although the lingering faith of investors in the power of rate cuts as an invigorating cure-all is touching, the bleak reality is that, for all the unprecedented aggression of the Fed's recent action, its medicine is more mere palliative than panacea.
The efficacy of monetary policy to quell the present turmoil, and to break the vicious downward spiral into which the US economy is locked, is more and more in question.
Across the United States, house prices continue to slump, eroding Americans' wealth and confidence as growing job losses combine to sap consumer demand, reinforcing the downturn.
Although the Fed's cuts in official rates, likely by tomorrow to total at least 2 percentage points since January alone, can help to limit the damage, and limit the depth of the recession that America has probably already entered, this is the most that can be hoped.
The feebleness of monetary policy in this fight is clear from the way in which, even as official rates have been cut, actual market interest rates paid by households and businesses have continued to climb because of the still-tightening credit squeeze.
At work is the so-called “financial accelerator” that now threatens to propel the US economy towards the abyss at a frightening speed.
As house prices tumble, and banks' losses on loans and toxic mortgage-backed securities multiply, the banks act to protect themselves and bolster their fragile balance sheets by ring-fencing capital and scaling back new lending. This drives up market rates still higher, adding to real and potential losses, reinforcing the credit squeeze and ratcheting up the pain.
The intensity and scale of this process was laid bare last week by the Bear Stearns debacle. Yet it is clear that the Fed's power to slam on the brakes and counteract the power of this financial accelerator through interest rates is severely constrained.
Worse still, the widespread belief that the Fed's rate cuts are an unalloyed good, and carry no risks or potentially negative repercussions, is also badly misplaced. Instead, the Fed's measures have a high-risk element that flows from their closely interwined impact on inflation, on markets' expectations of future inflation and on the dollar.
Ultimately, it seems probable that US inflationary pressures will be quashed by the sharp drop in demand that is taking hold. For the moment, however, headline inflation remains high, running at an annual 4 per cent rate that is eating away at Americans' spending power and adding to the consumer squeeze.
It is increasingly apparent that, whatever the eventual outcome, the markets have become fretful over the inflation risks being courted by the Fed and its Chairman, Ben Bernanke.
Those anxieties were made clear last week by the latest bizarre development in this crisis, as the yield on US index-linked Treasury bonds, or Tips, turned negative for the first time. In other words, in order to insulate some of their capital from the perceived inflation threat through Tips, investors are now prepared to lock in a guarantee that real returns will be negative.
That points to very real inflation fears, and to the first danger posed by the Fed's strategy. Should deep cuts in official rates inflame markets' inflation concerns, and lead toa sell-off in the bond markets, then the bond yields that determine actual interest rates for households and businesses will be pushed higher, making the Fed's moves counterproductive.
However, the greater peril stems from the rapid plunge in the dollar that has gathered pace in recent weeks and left the greenback languishing at record lows.
The Fed's steep rate cuts, and rising market fears over inflation, are piling pressure on the dollar. And as the dollar slides, it drives up US import bills, reinforcing inflationary pressures and further eroding confidence in the currency.
The consequence is that having fallen by 10 per cent against the euro over the past year, the greenback has shed a further 6.5 per cent in just the past month. Its overall value, gauged by its broad, trade-weighted index, is also at record lows.
The very real danger is that, while the boost to exports from the dollar's slide provides a helpful prop to US growth, its decline now becomes a rout, as investors' fears over its future value and of higher inflation trigger a loss of faith is American assets.
The materialisation of a long-dreaded dollar collapse would be catastrophic. It would undoubtedly trigger a crash in the equity and bond markets. A huge sell-off of US Treasury bonds by foreign investors would undercut the Fed's policy, driving long-term market interest rates through the ceiling. A severe world recession would become unavoidable.
This is a risk that the Fed, the United States, and the world cannot afford to run. The obvious implication is that the time has arrived for Washington to abandon its meaningless mantras claiming to support a “strong dollar”, while conniving to secure the opposite outcome. The dollar has fallen far enough, and the moment for the Fed and the US Treasury to co-ordinate intervention with Europe and Japan has arrived.
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The high oil prices are causing massive instability on world economies due to the spin off from price increases for transport and food. It could be that fuel oil prices are being manipulated by OPEC or others as a non violent weapon aimed at destroying the western system of government.
Jim Wills, Brisbane , Australia
Wow what's happening now reminds me of what people were saying when we first had the choice to join the euro. USA tried to keep hold of its position of dominance over the post war economy far too long and due to the inevitable build up of too many developing markets for america to dominate the scales started to tilt - as we all know when Saddam changed his oil sales to euros this threaterned the petro-dollar and thus america had to step up it's control of the market.... Several billion $ spent on tanks and bombs later and Iraq is back selling in dollars - alas america doesn't have the money to dominate economic markets anymore which of course it needs to now more than ever because its economic and foreign policy has angered most of the world.
We had the choice -do we want to be part of the economic collapse of America or the boom in the eurozone? alas though we couldn't #all# see it that way at the time, it came down to 'save our pound' for most people -guess what TOO LATE.
David Derk, London, UK
Low interest rates were the idea of none other than our dear friend, Alan Greenspan. His policy of having less than an absurd 1% p.a interest rate was unbelievably naive. The short term was to cause something of a boom in the States while he was on watch but now the chickens have come home to roost and Mr Bernanke is having to clear up the mess. He is following in his predecessors footsteps with absurdly low interest rates to try and get back to the wholly artificial situation Greenspan created. This time however the fall out is likely to be much greater as we have the added problem of inflation running out of control caused by
the weak dollar which in turn has been largely caused by the very low interest rates. We are moving into unchartered territory and dangerous times lie ahead.
pedro tam, London, UK
Time to halt the pound's decline more like!!!
Paul, Coventry,
I accept your analysis of the current situation, and a collapse of the dollar would be bad for everyone, but what is the solution? What kind of worldwide coordinated intervention can turn things around?
Dara, Dublin,
The unspoken policy of the United States Fed and treasury department is to drive the dollar down as a way to boost exports which are uncompetitive due to higher cost base and for not being appealing to the people in other countries.
The weak dollar policy is at par with euro area as to undervalued Chinese reminbi is to the United States. Both practices need to be halted and treated as unfair trade policies.
Max Skinner, London, UK
Why the Euro?
What else do you do?
Euro rates have been, although low, at least steady, and the ECB has managed to make people believe they will stay as is.
Rubbish of course, but it presents a conundrum, what else do you do?
Expect the £ to keep falling to protect our exports.
Expect inflation to keep rising.
The ECB will either join us on the crash, possibly waiting till we reach parity, but I doubt it, or they'll maintain there inflation hawk stance until every business in the EuroZone has packed its bags.
Dominic, Manchetser, UK
Lower interest rate won't help a crisis caused by cheap credit.
Part of the explanation for the current crisis is cheap credit, which led to a housing bubble, with led to a lot of people refinancing their house and buying stuff (fuelling the comsumer spending spree in recent years). It all depended on a continued rise in home prices. It seems pretty obvious that this mechanism could not continue indefinitely. It's like a pyramid scheme.
This being the case, lowering interest rates will at best delay the pain that will have to be endured, at worst aggravate it.
Then there's the position of the US dollar. In any other country, the currency would plunge quite rapidly if the economy depended to a large degree on credit-based consumer spending and there were permanent trade and budget deficits. The USD has indeed fallen, but no so far, because it has been protected by its status as a reserve currency and international trade currency (notably for oil and other commodities). It is probably still artificially high. In fact, some point to China and Middle Eastern countries buying US government bonds and other dollar assets as one of the causes of the housing bubble and subsequent credit crunch: it represented free money pouring into the US economy.
It's quite a bit like the Inca and Aztec gold flowing into 16th century Spain, and I suspect it will have a similar effect on the US economy, and perhaps in the long run, on the status of US as a superpower.
If the world's central banks and large institutional investors decide they no longer dare to hold on to dollar assets shrinking in value, and more oil countries than Venezuela and Iran demand oil to be paid in Euros, there's no limit to how ugly things can get.
Haavard Pettersen, Oslo, Norway
James in Florida, you are spot on. Lowering interest rates in a heavily indebted economy is like prescribing whisky for an alcoholic. The Fed should never have engaged in rate slashing in the first place and the BoE should certainly not follow suit.
Paul, Coventry,
Lawrence, London,
Point taken, but I'm still trying to get an answer to my original question why the continual drop against the Euro? Europe's economy is in no better shape (than the UK's) either.
Thomas, Alicante, Spain
Greed in all things has lead to where the United States and the world are at today. The never ending drive to push everything up for an excessive profit (stocks, real estate, commodities, etc) and make vast sums of money over night. What is happening today in the financial markets should come as no suprise to anyone. There is no profit in being greedy.
Chronos, Fort Smith , United States, AR
The problem was caused by setting interest rates too low for too long - it will not be cured by repeating the same mistake.
In fact at this stage it will only make matters so much worse.
Strange and perverse as it may seem the solution is to raise inerest rates not lower them in order to let money regain value again and enable future interest rate movements to regain traction.
Failure to do this will cause a major problem
James, Tampa, Florida
There is a defening silence of expert comment on the rise of the Euro. The main economies are at best fragile to the extreem, yet the Euro surges ahead. Please explain to me why it will not collapse as they can not sell anything at the price of the Euro. That would leave their embrios of awakening economy DEAD.
michael, Menorca , Spain
@Richard, Suffield, CT, USA
The money never actually existed Richard. The major private "national" banks all over the world long ago gave themselves the criminal power of fractional reserve banking. This gives a bank the power to loan out 10 times as much money as they actually have available in the bank. They print the paper dollars to represent this imaginary stockpile of wealth that they lead all the customers to believe they actually posses. It's a 400 year old con started by money changers/gold traders in Germany. See the complete history by watching the film, "The Money Masters" on Google. Then write your congressman to close the private Federal Reserve Bank, and give the Treasury department the power to create and control the American dollar.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
Thomas, I don't know which economists you have been reading but the statement that "as we are continually being told by all economists of all hues [that the UK] is in better shape than any other nation to weather the current financial climate." is simply laughable. I haven't read anything positive about the UK economy since the Northern Rock crisis. Your words seem to come straight from the mouth of Alistair Darling but surely you don't count him as an 'economist'?
Lawrence, London, England
I am wondering where the money from Bear-Sterns investment bank went? Did it get skimmed off to some rich man's account who is living in a tax haven outside of the USA? Let's see a full and complete accounting of every dollar that bank lost. Why should the Federal Reserve bank be allowed to pay off the Bear-Sterns debt with out an act of Congress? I thought Bear-Sterns was a private investment banking company? I think the whole system is becomming very crooked. It seems to me that the rich investment bankers have found a very profitable way of skimming off the money and then crying poor, demanding that the U.S. taxpayers pay off their losses via the Federal reserve bank. I am only a small hard working American writing here, but I am sick of this. The rich get richer and my retirement gets further and further away every day!
Richard, Suffield, CT, USA
A lucid presentation, very welcome at this time. I am pleased with Mr. Ducan's concluding admonition. Yes, let the US get together with Europe & Japan & get things settled properly. I am one elderly American more fearful of inflation than of a crash.
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg NY , USA
At least the Feds got their fingers out and actually did something (in one weekend).
Can't say the same for our BoE-Downing Street tag-team, can we?
Osei K., London,
While I agree with the above analysis I have a more immediate concern of the continuing fall of the £ against the Euro. The slow decline has has been going on for months, and truthfully I cannot comprehend a valid reason for it. The Euro gaining on the US Dollar, yes I can see the cause as the US economy falters but the £ vs. Euro, no obvious cause to me. The Euro zone has not suddenly turned into a rising economy with a burgeoning manufacturing base and the UK, as we are continually being told by all economists of all hues, is in better shape than any other nation to weather the current financial climate.
Without being a conspiracy theorist, and I have wondered this for quite a while now, is the current government slowly omitting to talk-up the strength of the £ vs. Euro in the hope that when it drops close to parity, they will declare to the UK electorate that we would be just as well off to be in the Euro?
Can someone out there please enlighten me.
Thomas, Alicante, Spain