Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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Alistair Darling's footling initiatives yesterday were a sideshow. There is one overwhelming challenge facing the business world and it is not going to be addressed by £10 million more for science teachers or £12 million for women entrepreneurs.
Western capitalism is, bluntly, being haunted by the spectre of a catastrophic domino-like collapse of financial institutions, one that if not prevented would without question lead to an economic ice age.
Mr Darling did at least acknowledge that a number of credit markets were “barely functioning” but then moved on to more trifling matters. Outside Westminster, however, fears remain that a major financial institution is close to collapse, or that policymakers at least believe it could be. Nothing else explains Tuesday's co-ordinated campaign by central banks and their increasingly desperate measures to pump more liquidity into a system showing fresh signs of paralysis. As one senior City figure put it yesterday: “There's the smell of death all right but no one can locate the corpse.”
En masse, the world is de-leveraging. On an individual level, moves by banks to call in debt and tighten loan conditions make perfect sense. Collectively, they could be devastating. Asset fire sales lead to falling prices which lead to shrinking collateral values and the need for more fire sales. It would not take all that much to tip the credit markets from the current state of paralysis (bad) to panic (much worse).
The toolkit of policymakers is looking depleted. They have tried liquidity injections; they have tried loosening their collateral terms; they have tried interest rate cuts. The next step in the US could be the outright purchase of mortgage books. That comes close to nationalisation.
Regulators are faced with scary choices. One false step could precipitate an unthinkable chain reaction of banking failures. Systemic failure is an outcome that must be anticipated and prevented at any cost. The temptation is therefore to turn on the hosepipe and so raise all boats on a tidal wave of liquidity on the grounds that even the smallest collapse could lead to bigger and more serious casualties.
Banks can be allowed to fail without the roof caving in. We have learnt that from Barings and from BCCI. But their demises were in the financial Stone Age - when contagion moved at a slower pace and banking relationships were more transparent and simpler. These days, a fiendishly complex cat's cradle of opaque derivative contracts links each bank to every other bank. The challenge to central banks as they survey this perilous landscape is to decide which banks cannot be allow- ed to fail under any circumstances - and which can and should.
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It's Time for the bankers to start repaying the interest on their debt. The debt of other people's blood, sweat and misery.
Chris, London,
The west is going broke because of third world immigration which is driving down wages, Workers can no longer pay their debts because of this
www.immigrationwatchcanada.org
bob, london, london canada
Blame the zionist bankers in London. They control the Fed in the USA. The zionist criminal conspiracy takes its orders from tel aviv central....period.. Of course with their oil grab they will make out ok in the end while the rest of us starve in bread lines.
Cliff, london, UK
I invested heavily in gold in 2002/2003 as I could see all of this coming, I just didnt know exactly when.
If you are a gold investor like me, you just sit back and enjoy the spectacle, especially now that gold has hit $1,000 and rising.
The whole banking system is a fraud based on debt, has been ever since William Patterson set up the first scam in 1694.
Now can people please wake up and smell the coffee - I'll drop a red pill in for anyone who still doesnt get it.
Simon Ralli Robinson, Gibraltar, GI
This is un-regulated free market capitalism in action. In the current situation if you even get a hint that a company is in trouble you have to get your money out while they still have some money left. The early birds get their full investment back and the late arrivals only get a small portion of their investment back when the company goes bankrupt. It is a dog eat dog world out there and you have to act accordingly. The financial institutions are in competition with each other and not working for the common good. Working for the common good will do nothing for your share price and next years bonuses.
Keith, Ashford,
The American Credo is complete freedom to do what you like (except smoke),but without a certain number of pre-controls,we periodically fall into chaos.
These "storms" arrive from across the Atlantic every few years (internet bubble,stock market fraud etc etc)
Tony, Henley/Thames, uk
The credit crunch will continue. It might be a good idea to apply for a few cedit cards before they stop handing them out as if they sweets!!
Costas, Cyprus,
Let's face it... the probelm is economies, and the rat-racing within them... that causes felony pyramid schemes like capitalism. Seeing any 18 yr olds being forced to join a competer's church, or starve? Seeing the pyramid scheme symbol on the back of the USA one dollar bill? Seeing anything in capitalism that resembles the farmyard pyramids we tried to erect as children... where the upper 1/3 is "head in the clouds" while the kids on the bottom ALWAYS GET HURT from the weight of the world's knees in their backs? Some of us see a felony pyramid scheme, including the person who painted "pyramid of capitalist" (do a Google IMAGE SEARCH for that phrase... to see it). Some of us Christian socialists have wanted a cease and desist order on the free marketeers for a LONG time, but servitude is legal in the USA... due to herd enjoyment addictions. Yeah, we got trouble, with a capital(ism) "T" that rhymes with "P" and that stands for Pyramid (of servitude infestation).
Wingnut
Anti-cap
Wingnut, Bessemer MI,
Let's face it, the credit 'crunch' is a symptom of the problem, which was too much easy credit to begin with. Prescribing even more credit for that problem is not going to work.
Paul, Coventry,
The Bankers should be force by law to sell their overpriced London homes, flash cars, pay back their bonus' to help those who will pay the real price of unemployment. They have with their greed and with regulators that were too busy' lunching out' led us into this crisis that could make depression look like a minor economic adjustment not a potential total collapse of western economics , however short a time or expensive until a fix is in place. Ask Japan!
Our nanny state will be too busy collecting 5pences off plastic bags to wake up to this!
John D Derby
John Dembovskis, Derby, UK
When all this mess is finally cleared up our problems are not over by any means. In the wake of this catastropy then internationally the regulators and the legislators will go into overdrive, with such a plethora of regulation beaurocracy and red tape that the bankers will not be allowed to operate a petty cash account without an official looking over their shoulders. There will be a drive to root out the people responsible and many scape goats will be sacrificed (not of course the top men) while the real culprits - the government administration and regulators go unscathed. With every day that this is allowed to continue the confidence of ordinary people diminishes and the fear is that those with money will put it under the bed or buy gold or coffee or anything, because looking at the crazy way currency markets are going - whats the point of the ...'promise to pay the bearer'... when there is nothing to pay them with except faith.???
David Nammory, Liverpool,