Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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Warren Buffett in his latest letter to shareholders says there are three kinds of acquisitions - The Great, The Good and The Gruesome. HSBC's landmark purchase of the US sub-prime lender Household International in 2003 now looks firmly parked in the third category.
With laudable candour, HSBC has laid out just how badly that business, which trades under the HFC banner, is performing. In every product line, from mortgages to credit cards and car loans, defaults are worsening fast. Loans in the final quarter were souring at the astonishing rate of $51 million (£25 million) a day.
But it is the pick-up in the speed of write-offs that is so unnerving. Things are not just getting steadily worse, they are getting exponentially worse.
It may be that the bottom will soon be reached, but that was not the message from HSBC yesterday. There's scope for pain in the trailer parks and poorer suburbs of America if unemployment starts to pick up.
With $150 billion still extended to the poor and credit-impaired of the US, it is much too early to draw a line under this saga. Fortunately for HSBC, with its businesses elsewhere largely powering ahead and its balance sheet rock solid, it can easily afford to finance the losses.
But it is now time to admit that a serious mistake was made. There may have been some spin-off advantages to the Household deal, like useful expertise garnered in credit cards, but the business overall was a bust.
Mr Buffett tells us he looks at four things before buying anything.
1. Is it a business we understand? 2. Does it have favourable long-term economics? 3. Is the management able and trustworthy? 4. Is it a sensible price tag?
With the benefit of hindsight, HSBC's answers to those questions as it was poised to write the £9 billion cheque five years ago, should should have been: 1. No. We do not understand the credit-scoring methodology used by Household and we are ignorant of the methods used by third-party brokers to gull the poor into contracts they can't possibly honour.
2. No. Sub-prime lending was and should have remained a niche business. Generations of bankers past understood this and would have nothing to do with it. It will shrink back to a niche business once again. There is a simple reason why the poor default. They have no money.
3. Trustworthy? Well, they had just been fined almost $500 million to settle allegations of predatory pricing. Able? No. HSBC subsequently paid tens of millions of dollars in severance pay to rid itself of them.
4. In the light of questions 1, 2 and 3 - emphatically no.
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Whoever that high official was who persuaded the board of HSCB to buy Household should be named and fired , without a "golden goodbye" like most of these incompetent financiers who buy companies within the same grouping as if its "fashionable" at the time because all our peers are doing the same.
Mark Pollard, Bordeaux, France
It seems that all the investors were not complaining with all the profits that HFC made them during the last 3 years...Unfortunately, when the US stock market sizzles so does all the financial banking sectors...Once the US markets rebound so will all the profits that HSBC endured in the past.
US HSBC Employee, Texas ,
I remember working as a cashier at the bank when they made this acquistion. It was made out to be a major achievement to buy up this " subprime" business, in their monthly newsletter. Myself and the other staff couldnt quite get our heads around why it could possibly be sensible - they explained exactly what sub prime was in the newsletter.
Its a pity they couldnt have employed one of us to tell them no, rather then get us to hard sell credit cards to customers - they would have saved money all round.
anon, bristol, england
I don't see the same level of recklessness in the UK as in the US. I remember being in a branch of Household (the US sub-prime lending unit picked up by HSBC) and was astonished by how the staff were trying to ram loans down the throats of people they were cold-calling. The amounts were enormous, the sell was very-hard, and the staff were clearly driven by the commissions, rather than the quality of the lending they were putting on the books. This was 2003, and I reflected at the time that this was not how HongkongBank (HSBC) had made its money. Thank Heaven for HSBC's continuing Asian franchise, which provides so much of the revenues for the rest of the network. (I just hope that the Management doesn't continue frittering away the profits on such a low-quality unit of the Group).
andrew , plymouth,
It has been a frenzy of foolish credit extension and showoff spending here (U.S); I understand the situation has been the same in the U.K. This thing is just beginning.
Lou, Derby, US/CT