Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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These are febrile times for bank shares. Whether innocently promulgated or deliberately planted, the rumours are flying. Most turn out to be false. One moment yesterday the Bank of England was supposedly having to pump emergency funding into a major high street bank because of a client default; the next a sovereign wealth fund was taking a meaty equity stake to bail out another stricken UK bank.
Some bank shares are being aggressively shorted. Criminal offence it may be, but squeezed bears have a lot of incentive to put out damaging stories to boost their profits or lessen their losses. A quarter of all Alliance & Leicester shares are said to be out on loan to facilitate the shorts.
Into this jittery atmosphere HBOS issued its lacklustre results yesterday - and was, of course, thumped, the shares falling by as much as 10 per cent and ending the day down 7 per cent at 657p.
There was no strong rationale for the punishment. Perhaps it was time to sell off banks after a couple of strong weeks. Perhaps it was the comparatively gloomy outlook statement. HBOS was a shade more jaundiced than its peers, saying the uncertainty in financial markets would linger throughout this year.
Whatever, analysts chose to focus on the negatives. But for HBOS's two million private shareholders, who have seen the value of their shares plunge all the way back to the float price of ten years ago, there are still good reasons to be cheerful.
1. Credit crunch or not, HBOS is well placed to withstand a prolonged famine in the securitisation markets. It has the biggest army of depositors in the country and only relied in the past on securitisations for 6 per cent of its funding.
2. The downturn in the housing and mortgage markets has a silver lining. Supplies of mortgages are being rapidly withdrawn. That will give lenders pricing power for the first time in ages as capacity shrinks. HBOS should be able to stabilise if not widen retail margins.
3. Bad debts on the retail side are falling and although they are soaring on the corporate side, HBOS is confident it is ahead of the curve in its writedowns, having subjected borrowers to the severest scrutiny.
4. The bad news and more is already fully discounted in the share price. After yesterday's 18 per cent increase in the dividend, the shares yield 7.4 per cent and trade on a mere 6.2 times historic earnings. HBOS reckons the world would have to end for it to have to cut the dividend, which is comfortably covered.
In these nervous times, financial catastrophe is not impossible but it is not the way to bet. The shares are cheap. HBOS's army of small investors should sit tight. Now, emphatically, is not the time to bale out.
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3 years ago I tried to take out a mortgage with HBOS and they would only lend me 2.5 times my salary, I had wanted to upgrade. I had banked with them for 20 years, own my own property outright and was prepared to use it as collateral, have a full time job and never been in debt. They subjected me to a scrupulous interview and in the end would not lend me the amount I wanted to borrow, 5 times my salary. I can tell you they're no Northern Rock.
laydee, london,
Who are these armies of small investors that Hosking seems to believe every large cap he writes about commands? Are they allies or enemies of the army of depositors he also mentions here? You would hope for their sake that itâs the former, since apparently the depositors are the largest force in the country.
Dan, London Town, London
The fact of the matter, as this article confirms, is that HBOS shares now offer excellent value for money, owing mainly to the fact that the share price has fallen to the initial float price and that the dividend yield is excellent.
Taking these factors into account, the long term yield on the stock should be positive.
Hassan Azam, Banbury , Oxfordshire, England
Surely this is the difference between Buffett-style value investing and a market that suffers from bipolar disorder.
Is HBOS insolvent? No. Is it illiquid? No. Is the market in the short-term wrong? Usually, yes.
Eddie Reader, birmingham, england
Thanks for a more balanced view.
HBOS was smart enough for not writing rubbish loans in H1 when Northerm Rock was undercutting them. That indicates level headed management that are prepared to think long term. HBOS should now be able to clean up the market.
The doom and gloom on HBOS is a bit over the top.
In lending terms, traditionally a "prime" mortgage with LTV less than 80% has been considered a much less riskier loan than either Credit Card (think Barclays) or Unsecured Personal Loans (think Lloyds). I don't see anything that changes that.
You can let someone take away your car or sofa but everyone needs a place to live.
Jack Chad, Reading, ENGLAND
I agree, I became an HBOS shareholder yesterday, for the first time: 7%+ yield with future divi growth certain from a string of well-known profitable brands is cheap beyond belief.
The "teenage scribblers" that dominate the financial markets nowadays have got their knickers in a twist. I think the sub-prime crisis has been engineered by a few shrewd operators who have made trillions out of it. Of course, there is a fall-out and inevitable hysteria from those that like to be noisy. Fact is is suits the UK banks who have long resented the foreign banks competing on their patch and in tightening criteria are sweeping all the profitable customers into their fold.
It is clear, at least to me, that there is a long-over due flight to quality and realism and in uncertain times people prefer to deal with reputable long established companies. HBOS will do very well out the uncertainty and to drag the share price down shows why there so much mediocrity in Britain today.
Michael Lever, Ledbury, GB
Pricing power means better margins and that is what is needed for any UK bank at the moment. Northern Rock grabbed a 20% share of the mortgage market by means of a business plan, largely based on pricing and fixed term rate marketing that was unsustainable to the point of recklessness. A competitor who is prepared to offer deals that are literally too good to be true does not benefit a market, it distorts it and so the fact that the FSA simply chose to look the other way while this was going on makes it all the more of a disgrace that its main board directors remain in office.
figurewizard, Hampshire, UK
As you say the dividend is well covered and the 18% increase is very attractive long term investers should ignore the daily price swings unless looking to buy. The history of shares is that you make far more money holding your shares and following a rising dividend than you do trying to capitialise on a constantly daily moving share price. I still have shares which I bought in the early part of the ninties the dividend on most has rises every year to date and the money has been used for reinvestment.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire