Patrick Hosking: Business commentary
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First came the private equity chief who publicly beat up himself and his peers over paying less tax than their cleaners. Now we have one of his colleagues, Jon Moulton, berating his own industry trade body for its shoddy statistical methodology. He is right to do so.
The BVCA is guilty of a schoolboy error - survivor bias. By ignoring companies that go bust, it has exaggerated the industry's job-creating credentials. For any investment industry body, it looks bad. Survivor bias is a classic wheeze for inflating investment returns. The hedge fund industry is particularly prone to it, conveniently ignoring failed funds to exaggerate overall returns. Let's hope the private equity industry has not made the same howler in its performance claims.
patrick.hosking@thetimes.co.uk
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It makes a different error in its performance claims.
Michael, London,
This reminds me of Mr. Reginald Iolanthe Perrin, and his employer "Sunshine Desserts", who found after a flawed survey that the three best selling ice cream flavours were Bookends, Pumice Stone and West Germany.
The BVCA didn't get where they are today without knowing about survivor bias.
Tim Brookshaw, Atlanta, GA, USA