Irwin Stelzer
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JUST when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse, they did. The Federal Reserve Board’s economists revised their growth estimate down, and their inflation forecast up. The dreaded word “stagflation” has begun to make its appearance, reminding those Wall Street analysts old enough to remember that in the 1970s the economy experienced 15% inflation, 9% unemployment and three recessions.
Those who want to update their financial vocabularies further should also take note of the new buzz word, “contagion”, used to describe the fact that sub-prime problems are spreading to other parts of the closely interlinked credit market, such as credit cards and non-sub-prime mortgages.
Add “decoupling” to your lexicon and you will be au courant: analysts who confidently predicted America’s problems would not spread, are now less certain that the US economy is decoupled from the rest of the world. That’s why BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret said that “all the reliable leading indicators of eurozone economic growth point to even worse news ahead”.
And why Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy and head of the Financial Stability Forum, said of write-downs by Europe’s banks, “it’s not over yet”. After all, led by London’s bankers, European institutions probably put as much into the sub-prime market as American banks did, and have yet to write off most of the bad loans. Credit Suisse, which first proudly announced that it had suffered only minor damage from turmoil in the credit markets, was forced a few days later to confess it had not noticed a $2.85 billion loss from trading in the debt markets. This added to the pervasive feeling of uncertainty: if Credit Suisse didn’t know its true exposure when reporting its earnings, there must be others that have merely shaved the tip off the iceberg of bad debts lurking below the surface of their published figures.
Now for the bad news. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since the early 1990s; “There is not much doubt in my mind that the US economy is now in recession,” well-regarded Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius is telling the firm’s clients; The jobs market is weakening, and may even be contracting. Which is bad news indeed because “pay-rolls don’t just edge lower in a recession . . . they drop like a stone,” reports the Business Week economist James Cooper; The Fed’s minutes report that “recent data . . . indicated that consumer spending had decelerated considerably”.
Now for the really bad news: last week oil prices pierced the psychologically significant $100-a-barrel level for the first time, not counting one deal on January 2 by a trader eager to become a footnote to history. This caught a lot of speculators short, as they expected prices to slide, and settle between $85 and $90. After all, several indicators suggest a weakening in demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently cut its forecast of 2008 demand to reflect predictions of economic slowdown in America, and petrol demand is falling in the US. Meanwhile, inventories of crude oil are rising. The much-followed Schork Report said it expected crude supply to outpace demand for the “next couple of weeks”.
Yet prices are rising. On the demand side, despite the lowering of its forecast, the IEA still expects China, India and other emerging economies to drive up worldwide demand by something like 2%. And many observers expect the cheques to be issued as part of President Bush’s stimulus package to reach consumers by early summer, just in time to offset any pressure Americans might feel to cut down on petrol during the driving season.
Even more important are developments on the supply side. Markets were temporarily rattled when Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez threatened to cut off oil supplies to the US, despite the fact that America has about the only refineries capable of using his country’s very low-grade crude, and that he is desperate for funds. But production in Venezuela continues to decline, as much-needed investment is diverted to Chavez’s welfare projects. Also, some 10% of Nigeria’s oil production has been cut off by rebels.
Most important of all, Opec, which accounts for about 40% of world output, refuses to lift its production ceiling, despite personal pleas to the Saudis from Bush. The Saudis seem to have adopted the “a friend in need is a pest” attitude. Opec fears an economic slowdown will cut into demand, and that the dollar will fall further, reducing the purchasing power its cartel members receive in return for their oil.
The longer-term problem stems from the refusal of many nations to open their oilfields to exploration and development by western firms. With high prices producing as much money as even the producing countries can reasonably spend and invest, they have no compelling need to bring new supplies to market. Besides, if they want to increase the flow of cash, they can always insist on renegotiating the deals signed with western countries, giving credence to the observation that a contract with an oil-producing country is the first round in a negotiation.
At last, the good news. Last week a leading investment banker told me that his firm’s clients were making money, had good cash flows, and were earning about 20% returns on their businesses. Businessmen I talk with, though concerned about what might lurk just round the corner, report healthy sales and satisfactory profits. I can’t help feeling that the health of the firms on the sharp edge of the economy tells us more about our future than the problems of accident-prone bankers and investors who forgot how to price risk.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute.
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if you increase the production now you are setting your self for future shock
the best course is reducing demand--the european pay $8 a gallon the american $3
saud, riyadh,
The sad things is, many manufacturing companies are making good products that customers want. Unfortunately we are all going to end up in a very deep recession because of the greed of financial companies who would sell their grandparents if they thought there was money in it. These financial companies need to be curbed by legislation. Many of them are parasites who have sucked the blood of "Real Companies" for decades. These people cause the boom and busts.
Paul Anderson, Blackpool,
anyone who needs to "update" his financial vocab to include the word contagion must have missed the asian contagion.
it seems that american fashions sense is not the only thing 10 years out of date.
jem, london, uk
We'd be far less vulnerable if we spent 1% of what we spend on oil on developing the non-oil dependent car. R&D in this sector is far too slow either from the point of view of lessening our dependence on oil, or for the environmental reasons we all know about. I can't understand why governments allow more cars to be produced. It seems so self-destructive.
Alice, Hove,
The price of oil is very cheap;all the americans do to pay for a barrel of oil is to run a small piece of paper under a printing press where they produce an IOU that is accepted.
Foreign countries do not want American companies to search for oil on their sovereign land as they are afraid that the American companies will prosper while their natural resourses and enviroment are plundered with little benefit to the general population. America went to war in Iraq to steal the Iraqi oil; when America leaves Iraq the oil which was owned by the Iraqi's will be owned by the Americans.
Hortense vaughan, sydney, australia
I believe a major reason for oil at record price levels is the significantly lower value of the dollar. If you owned an oil well and forced to sell the oil in dollars, then you would naturally want the price to go up significantly to compensate.
The dollar was Eur 0.92630 5 years ago, today it stands at Eur 0.67470
John, Huntingdon, England
I believe a major reason for oil at record price levels is the significantly lower value of the dollar. If you owned an oil well and forced to sell the oil in dollars, then you would naturally want the price to go up significantly to compensate.
The dollar was Eur 0.92630 5 years ago, today it stands at Eur 0.67470
John, Huntingdon, England
I believe a major reason for oil at record price levels is the significantly lower value of the dollar. If you owned an oil well and forced to sell the oil in dollars, then you would naturally want the price to go up significantly to compensate.
The dollar was Eur 0.92630 5 years ago, today it stands at Eur 0.67470
John, Huntingdon, England
A friend in need is a pest?
Better is the great poet John Cooper Clark - "A friend in need is a friend in debt; I don't want to be nice"
Geoff, Moscow
Geoff SAUNDERS, Moscow, Russia
The oil price is rising because the producers want it to rise. Without a higher price reducing decline from existing fields and developing new ones isn't going to happen.
DickW, Aberdeenshire, Scotland
Im sorry to say Mr Stelzer oil will not be coming down ever,we are at ,or near to peek production and the way China and india are producing car the demand is only going north with or without a US recesion. oil production is at about 86 million barrels a day and has been for the last 3 years read Matthew Symonds peek oil to learn the truth about things. I think oil will be 130 to 150 by years end and around 300 in three years time ouch
Garry Webster, Norwich,
"Most important of all, Opec, which accounts for about 40% of world output, refuses to lift its production ceiling...Irwin Stelzer"
You seem to be very West-centric in your view here Irwin.
To the Saudis, oil is essential for the development of their country, depending as they do on the revenue it raises.
Yet, you suggest, the minute the West - through their own greed - run into some temporary credit difficulties, the Saudis should raise production levels, lowering prices, just to help the West.
You conveniently skip over the fact the Saudis (and other oil producers) will be selling their future cheaply.
We, and I definitely include the UK in this, got ourselves into this mess because of our greed for the next house/car/TV/holiday etc, well beyond our spending power.
Therefore we should take the pain of getting ourselves out of it, without expecting the Saudis to sell out their future prosperity.
Clive, Surrey,
If you look back over the period since the last recession in the early 1990s, you will see some pretty spectacular events, each this massive economic impacts. They include the westernisation of eastern Europe, two massive wars (that are still going on), continued Middle Eastern turmoil and the development of China and India.
The long term effects of each were unknown when they arose but in the short to medium term there would be continuous demand for almost everything so the merry-go-round continued uninterrupted.
Now each of these events seems to be stabilising to differing degrees and their longer term impacts can be better assessed. There is therefore an opportunity for strategic analysis. The result is increased pessimism and that is affecting the markets.
Simultaneously we see a decrease in popularity of and confidence in the political leadership of several major nations.
These two considerations combine to shift sentiment towards pessimism and markets then follow.
David Williams, Eastnor, England
"The Saudis seem to have adopted the âa friend in need is a pestâ attitude."
The Saudis should realise that with friends like Stelzer and his war mongering buddies at the hudson Institute, who needs enemies.
Samuel, Glasgow,
Well. there's an inverse relationship tween price of oil and market value -
i agree with Boone Pickens that there's something shifty goin down re: oil and am curious as to how that is working. It's much tighter integrated with governmental funding obviously then say the ordinary inflation of a particular stock valuation - as in the net boom.
That said I'm more inclined to see ease of oil price fixing resulting from insecure national economics then the other way around.
In auditioning musicians a pro can suss someone in a matter or moments & likewise the next pres will get a swift shot across the bow which will determine the relative powers for four years - eg jfk and US steel -- in the interim the dance goes on and the code remains to be cracked
glenn schaefer, holbrook, USA
Could not the Saudi'a respond "Tell your oil Companies to share the wealth or lower their profit by selling cheaper to the American people; make only a million a day instead of what they are making now.reportedly a billion a week". A friend in need must tighten his belt or his pants will drop.
Andy O'Donnell, Sacramento, CA .USA